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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2022 18:48:56 GMT
those figures will be pretty reassuring to Labour. It may be that the debates so far have not really enhanced the leading contenders. Would be interesting to see how Badenoch might be received if she turned the tables & made it into the last 2, which isn't yet impossible, though unlikely.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 18, 2022 18:54:11 GMT
those figures will be pretty reassuring to Labour. It may be that the debates so far have not really enhanced the leading contenders. Would be interesting to see how Badenoch might be received if she turned the tables & made it into the last 2, which isn't yet impossible, though unlikely. Hm, I would say that after months of utter chaos in the Tory Party and the worst cost of living crisis for decades, you might hope for more than 43% saying Starmer would be better than Sunak...
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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2022 20:11:36 GMT
yes, we might. But we will take this
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 18, 2022 20:32:42 GMT
Do you think we'll ever seen the large midterm poll leads that Labour enjoyed in the early and late 80s and the 90s?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 18, 2022 20:45:01 GMT
Do you think we'll ever seen the large midterm poll leads that Labour enjoyed in the early and late 80s and the 90s? Maybe one day, but i doubt would reach the 30% plus or 40% plus leads Blair got at points in 1994-1997
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Post by redtony on Jul 18, 2022 20:50:32 GMT
The large labour leads led to tory landslides 1983 1997 and another defeat this time Labour thew the victory away in 1992
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 18, 2022 21:09:23 GMT
The large labour leads led to tory landslides 1983 1997 and another defeat this time Labour thew the victory away in 1992 1987?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2022 9:44:28 GMT
As I keep saying (but few appear to listen!) polling methodology is now significantly less pro-Labour than in the 1980s and 90s (or indeed pre-2015 GE, come to that)
Its one reason why I doubt "shy Tories" are about to again become a thing any time soon.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 19, 2022 10:30:26 GMT
As I keep saying (but few appear to listen!) polling methodology is now significantly less pro-Labour than in the 1980s and 90s (or indeed pre-2015 GE, come to that) Its one reason why I doubt "shy Tories" are about to again become a thing any time soon. I must say I must have missed that. I'd be interested in seeing currently polling on old methodology
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2022 10:32:32 GMT
Its been done the other way round for 2010-15, and shows Labour were clearly ahead only for parts of that parliament (rather than most of it, as with the old figures)
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 19, 2022 10:51:43 GMT
Its been done the other way round for 2010-15, and shows Labour were clearly ahead only for parts of that parliament (rather than most of it, as with the old figures) I've seen post 2015 polls with 2015 methodology but that's it
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 19, 2022 10:54:55 GMT
Its been done the other way round for 2010-15, and shows Labour were clearly ahead only for parts of that parliament (rather than most of it, as with the old figures) You hoping for a shy Labour effect next time?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2022 10:59:16 GMT
Already might have been one in 2017....
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 19, 2022 11:03:10 GMT
Already might have been one in 2017.... Maybe. Of course estimating turnout amongst each parties supporters would be a different factor from just being reluctant to be interviewed.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 19, 2022 12:28:10 GMT
Already might have been one in 2017.... Maybe. Of course estimating turnout amongst each parties supporters would be a different factor from just being reluctant to be interviewed. Changes in turnout trends is probably the hardest thing for pollsters, especially when dealing with those who say they’ll vote and then don’t. I think the British Election Study has done research on this (part of their 2015 analysis?), with some groups significantly overestimating their own turnout - especially those favourable to Labour. I’m not sure if there’s any demographic data on those who refuse to be interviewed.
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Post by froome on Jul 19, 2022 13:42:15 GMT
Maybe. Of course estimating turnout amongst each parties supporters would be a different factor from just being reluctant to be interviewed. Changes in turnout trends is probably the hardest thing for pollsters, especially when dealing with those who say they’ll vote and then don’t. I think the British Election Study has done research on this (part of their 2015 analysis?), with some groups significantly overestimating their own turnout - especially those favourable to Labour. I’m not sure if there’s any demographic data on those who refuse to be interviewed."Good morning sir, I am running a survey on those who refuse to be interviewed for surveys. Would you mind answering a few questions."
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 19, 2022 13:46:05 GMT
I have noticed recently that a lot of left-wing voters seem to think polling companies are part of some pro-Tory conspiracy and for a while refused to believe them.
No doubt that part of this was a coping mechanism while Corbyn's Labour were getting hammered but it's far from impossible that lots of left-wing voters have been refusing to speak to pollsters and therefore the Labour vote has been underestimated in polls. Whether any of those people would still be Labour voters or whether this is still the case is another matter but certainly recently I suspect there has been a pattern of Labour voters not answering polls
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 19, 2022 13:54:46 GMT
I have noticed recently that a lot of left-wing voters seem to think polling companies are part of some pro-Tory conspiracy and for a while refused to believe them. No doubt that part of this was a coping mechanism while Corbyn's Labour were getting hammered but it's far from impossible that lots of left-wing voters have been refusing to speak to pollsters and therefore the Labour vote has been underestimated in polls. Whether any of those people would still be Labour voters or whether this is still the case is another matter but certainly recently I suspect there has been a pattern of Labour voters not answering polls Isn't that just a few nut jobs on Twitter though? Not a statistcally significant proportion of voters I should have thought
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 19, 2022 14:14:01 GMT
A lot of pro-Corbyn people on Twitter were attacking YouGov etc in the run-up to the 2019 election, but the polls were pretty much bang on. No reason to think anything has changed.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 19, 2022 14:33:07 GMT
Isn’t that just a case though of whoever’s behind in the polls making excuses and wanting to believe the situation is different regardless of the evidence?
I remember when I was knocking up for Zac Goldsmith, a normally loyal Tory supporter said there wasn’t any point in voting because he was behind in the polls so I replied with those utterly ridiculous words “the only poll that counts is on polling day”.
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