Redfield & Wilton

[manchesterman]

I post this without comment!

[tonygreaves]

I read this without comment.

[Deleted]

Jun 4, 2020 19:03:21 GMT @barnabymarder said:

If a party has nearly doubled its vote without any good reason for it happening, the chances are that either this poll or its predecessor hasn't quite got things right.

they say 1 poll is an outlier 2 polls are a coincidence and three are a trend. There was a good article by Ian Warren about the growth of the Greens. There's clearly a growing number of people who indentify closest with the Green party mainly because of the increasing importance of the environment but get squeezed at election times. I suppose its only natural we see that squeeze unwind in midterm

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 4, 2020 20:16:20 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Jun 4, 2020 19:03:21 GMT @barnabymarder said:

If a party has nearly doubled its vote without any good reason for it happening, the chances are that either this poll or its predecessor hasn't quite got things right.

they say 1 poll is an outlier 2 polls are a coincidence and three are a trend. There was a good article by Ian Warren about the growth of the Greens. There's clearly a growing number of people who indentify closest with the Green party mainly because of the increasing importance of the environment but get squeezed at election times. I suppose its only natural we see that squeeze unwind in midterm

Ian Warren has been talking up the Greens for years, though.

[greenchristian]

Jun 4, 2020 19:03:21 GMT @barnabymarder said:

If a party has nearly doubled its vote without any good reason for it happening, the chances are that either this poll or its predecessor hasn't quite got things right.

Over the last couple of years, the Greens' base figure in polls has moved from its historical level 2-3% to around 3-5%.

And interpreting a change from 3% to 5% as nearly doubling a vote without good reason is rather reading into things. If the real Green figure is 4% then you'd expect some polls to show 3% and others to show 5%, and that occasionally you'd see a poll where the Green figure goes from 3 to 5 or vice versa without it signifying any actual change in support.

[justin124]

Jun 8, 2020 14:02:58 GMT greenchristian said:

Jun 4, 2020 19:03:21 GMT @barnabymarder said:

If a party has nearly doubled its vote without any good reason for it happening, the chances are that either this poll or its predecessor hasn't quite got things right.

Over the last couple of years, the Greens' base figure in polls has moved from its historical level 2-3% to around 3-5%.

And interpreting a change from 3% to 5% as nearly doubling a vote without good reason is rather reading into things. If the real Green figure is 4% then you'd expect some polls to show 3% and others to show 5%, and that occasionally you'd see a poll where the Green figure goes from 3 to 5 or vice versa without it signifying any actual change in support.

Very unlikely to hold up in a general election.Most would switch to Labour and the Greens would fall back to circa 2%.

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2020 12:13:25 GMT justin124 said:

Jun 8, 2020 14:02:58 GMT greenchristian said:

Over the last couple of years, the Greens' base figure in polls has moved from its historical level 2-3% to around 3-5%.

And interpreting a change from 3% to 5% as nearly doubling a vote without good reason is rather reading into things. If the real Green figure is 4% then you'd expect some polls to show 3% and others to show 5%, and that occasionally you'd see a poll where the Green figure goes from 3 to 5 or vice versa without it signifying any actual change in support.

Very unlikely to hold up in a general election.Most would switch to Labour and the Greens would fall back to circa 2%.

depends, if its close yes otherwise Greens will be harder to squeeze

[Jack]

[Andrew_S]

"@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (+2)
LAB: 38% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-)

via
@redfieldwilton
, 18 Jun
Chgs. w/ 11 Jun"

[Deleted]

[Jack]

How is Johnson beating Sunak?

[tonygreaves]

Half the country don't know who Sunak is. We all think everyone watches what we watch.

[Jack]

Jun 20, 2020 22:36:10 GMT tonygreaves said:

Half the country don't know who Sunak is. We all think everyone watches what we watch.

With the economic policies at the moment I'd hope more people would be aware of who the Chancellor is who is implementing them.

[carlton43]

Jun 20, 2020 22:36:10 GMT tonygreaves said:

Half the country don't know who Sunak is. We all think everyone watches what we watch.

No.  The figure will be much larger than 50%.

[Richard Allen]

Jun 20, 2020 21:36:06 GMT Jack said:

How is Johnson beating Sunak?

Within 6 weeks of Sunak becoming Chancellor the economy was in tatters. Imagine how much damage he could do as PM.

[Tony Otim]

Yeah - Rishi-mania will turn out to be as fleeting and ephemeral as Rory-mania...

[Deleted]

Jun 21, 2020 14:20:34 GMT Tony Otim said:

Yeah - Rishi-mania will turn out to be as fleeting and ephemeral as Rory-mania...

tbf Rory never reached particularly high approval ratings and the party did incredibly bad under hypothetical Rory leadership polling

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 21, 2020 14:20:34 GMT Tony Otim said:

Yeah - Rishi-mania will turn out to be as fleeting and ephemeral as Rory-mania...

Let's see how he handles the "triple lock" over the next 18 months or so.
If, say, average earnings fall by 10% this year and then recover by 10% next year,
the pensioners will still get their 2.5% this year and an increase of 10% next year to match the increase in earnings.
There's no way he can keep everyone happy.

[Andrew_S]

[pragmaticidealist]

Jun 26, 2020 17:11:37 GMT Andrew_S said:

Worth noting that the incumbent PM tends to have an inbuilt advantage on the preferred PM question of at least a few net percent. It's why Blair's lead over Major was virtually always less than the Labour lead over the Tories during that time.