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Post by warofdreams on Apr 10, 2020 12:09:52 GMT
York Central, despite its name, contains the large majority of the York urban area. It is surrounded by York Outer, which combines a few suburbs with outlying towns and villages. York Central and Bath are the only two seats entirely surrounded by another, and this unusual set-up has existed only since 2010. The clear predecessor seat was the City of York, which had sent members to the Commons since 1265. The current MP is Rachael Maskell, who held various shadow ministerial posts under Jeremy Corbyn, and her two predecessors, Labour's Hugh Bayley. and the Conservative Conal Gregory, are both still with us.
The seat covers the heavily touristed centre of York, with its famous Minster and near-complete circuit of walls. To the west, it extends to the edge of the built-up area, excludes only the outermost suburbs to the south and east, but to the north it is more tightly drawn. It includes substantial council estates in Acomb, Clifton, and Tang Hall, small terraced housing around Hull Road and South Bank (the first area popular with students, and the second with left-leaning professionals), and privately owned suburbia around Heworth and Boroughbridge Road.
Until 1918, the constituency had two seats, which from the rise of the party system were often divided between the Whigs and the Tories, or later, the Conservatives and the Liberals. Reduction to one seat saw the end of a serious Liberal challenge, and Labour became competitive, winning the seat in 1929, 1945, and then holding it from 1966 to 1983, and 1992 on. York Outer, shorn of some outer suburbs, is a safe Labour seat, with party managing a 27.4% majority over the Conservatives in 2019.
In recent years, the largest party on the council has alternated between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems are currently in pole position, but their strength is in York Outer, and they hold only the three Westfield seats in the area covered by this constituency. Labour hold most of the rest, but the Greens hold both Fishergate seats, and one in both Micklegate and Guildhall, with the Conservatives nowhere at the local level.
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Post by warofdreams on Apr 13, 2020 13:09:59 GMT
... The Lib Dems are currently in pole position, but their strength is in York Outer, 2019 GE results (York Outer) Con 27234 Lab 17739 LibDem 9992 Ind 692 The LibDems spent a fortune with lots of direct mail (National spend) on fighting York Outer. I live in York Central (only just) Their strength on the council is in the wards which form part of York Outer, as the post makes clear. I've posted up a profile of York Outer, too, which discusses the relative Lib Dem strengths in local and general elections there.
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Post by warofdreams on Apr 13, 2020 13:28:37 GMT
Again, good profile but might be an idea to attempt to explain the constituency's voting habits a bit. Why are Labour so strong here? It's a good question, and I'm not entirely sure I know the answer. Opposition to Brexit is high, though that doesn't necessarily go hand-in-hand with voting Labour. Demographics explain a bit, particularly high public sector employment, and fairly high student population. A popular local MP helps, and the Tories campaigning seriously in 2017 made it easier to squeeze the minor party votes.
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 16, 2020 10:38:25 GMT
Again, good profile but might be an idea to attempt to explain the constituency's voting habits a bit. Why are Labour so strong here? It's a good question, and I'm not entirely sure I know the answer. Opposition to Brexit is high, though that doesn't necessarily go hand-in-hand with voting Labour. Demographics explain a bit, particularly high public sector employment, and fairly high student population. A popular local MP helps, and the Tories campaigning seriously in 2017 made it easier to squeeze the minor party votes. Why is York Central so strong for Labour? Large university academic and student vote (not just University of York but also York St John), large public sector employment generally, strong tradition of non-conformism/Quakerism eg Rowntrees, lots of low paid young people working in jobs in the tourism sector, strong tradition of trade unions especially around the railway sector and the fact that there’s a lot of council housing in Acomb, Clifton, Hull Road, Tang Hall etc. York isn’t as wealthy as a lot of people think it is.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 16, 2020 10:44:12 GMT
It's a good question, and I'm not entirely sure I know the answer. Opposition to Brexit is high, though that doesn't necessarily go hand-in-hand with voting Labour. Demographics explain a bit, particularly high public sector employment, and fairly high student population. A popular local MP helps, and the Tories campaigning seriously in 2017 made it easier to squeeze the minor party votes. Why is York Central so strong for Labour? Large university academic and student vote (not just University of York but also York St John), large public sector employment generally, strong tradition of non-conformism/Quakerism eg Rowntrees, lots of low paid young people working in jobs in the tourism sector, strong tradition of trade unions especially around the railway sector and the fact that there’s a lot of council housing in Acomb, Clifton, Hull Road, Tang Hall etc. York isn’t as wealthy as a lot of people think it is. If there were a York East and West or North and South, like there is in every other town/ city, rather than City and Outer, would Labour be able to win both? My aunt lives in Bishopthorpe which is in Outer, and that appears to be a very affluent village.
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Post by warofdreams on Apr 16, 2020 10:51:05 GMT
Why is York Central so strong for Labour? Large university academic and student vote (not just University of York but also York St John), large public sector employment generally, strong tradition of non-conformism/Quakerism eg Rowntrees, lots of low paid young people working in jobs in the tourism sector, strong tradition of trade unions especially around the railway sector and the fact that there’s a lot of council housing in Acomb, Clifton, Hull Road, Tang Hall etc. York isn’t as wealthy as a lot of people think it is. If there were a York East and West or North and South, like there is in every other town/ city, rather than City and Outer, would Labour be able to win both? My aunt lives in Bishopthorpe which is in Outer, and that appears to be a very affluent village. Given that, across the two seats, Labor had several thousand more votes than the Tories, you could draw up two seats which would be Labour, if voting patterns didn't change. But, given the different voting patterns at the local level, they would change, and it's unlikely that the party would consistently win both seats in poor years like 2019.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 16, 2020 10:59:33 GMT
If there were a York East and West or North and South, like there is in every other town/ city, rather than City and Outer, would Labour be able to win both? My aunt lives in Bishopthorpe which is in Outer, and that appears to be a very affluent village. Given that, across the two seats, Labor had several thousand more votes than the Tories, you could draw up two seats which would be Labour, if voting patterns didn't change. But, given the different voting patterns at the local level, they would change, and it's unlikely that the party would consistently win both seats in poor years like 2019. I might work out notional results for those splits at some point!
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 16, 2020 12:38:26 GMT
Why is York Central so strong for Labour? Large university academic and student vote (not just University of York but also York St John), large public sector employment generally, strong tradition of non-conformism/Quakerism eg Rowntrees, lots of low paid young people working in jobs in the tourism sector, strong tradition of trade unions especially around the railway sector and the fact that there’s a lot of council housing in Acomb, Clifton, Hull Road, Tang Hall etc. York isn’t as wealthy as a lot of people think it is. If there were a York East and West or North and South, like there is in every other town/ city, rather than City and Outer, would Labour be able to win both? My aunt lives in Bishopthorpe which is in Outer, and that appears to be a very affluent village. My gut says York North and York South would be very tight marginals with York West a small Conservative majority and York East being narrowly Labour. All four iterations would be competitive seats in my view.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 16, 2020 12:55:25 GMT
We argued for York East/West (or keeping the enlarged city seat) back in the 80s when the Boundary Commission proposed hiving off Micklegate and Foxwood to Selby. Alex Lyon also wanted to keep his seat intact.
Also about that time there was a uni survey that found that Tang Hall voted 40% approx Tory whereas Badger Hill (full of uni lecturers & staff) was almost 90% Labour.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 16, 2020 21:01:24 GMT
If there were a York East and West or North and South, like there is in every other town/ city, rather than City and Outer, would Labour be able to win both? My aunt lives in Bishopthorpe which is in Outer, and that appears to be a very affluent village. Given that, across the two seats, Labor had several thousand more votes than the Tories, you could draw up two seats which would be Labour, if voting patterns didn't change. But, given the different voting patterns at the local level, they would change, and it's unlikely that the party would consistently win both seats in poor years like 2019. I’ve just done a notional based on last years local elections, and obviously it depends where you draw the lines across the middle of the city a bit, but I have ended up with York East C19374, Lab 18941, LD 6720 York West Lab 25713, Con 21719, LD 7422 and York North C 22834, Lab 20888, LD 8039 York South Lab 23766, C 18257, LD 6102
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 16, 2020 21:18:32 GMT
So in other words, any non-gerrymander boundaries would have the same result in 2019 (one Labour one Tory), but the doughnut boundaries have made them two safe seats as opposed to two marginals.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Apr 16, 2020 21:23:49 GMT
So in other words, any non-gerrymander boundaries would have the same result in 2019 (one Labour one Tory), but the doughnut boundaries have made them two safe seats as opposed to two marginals. York Central seems safe enough, though I'd argue that York Outer is a borderline marginal seat could possibly turn red in 1997 or maybe even 2001 style landslide.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2020 21:27:30 GMT
So in other words, any non-gerrymander boundaries would have the same result in 2019 (one Labour one Tory), but the doughnut boundaries have made them two safe seats as opposed to two marginals. York Central seems safe enough, though I'd argue that York Outer is a borderline marginal seat could possibly turn red in 1997 or maybe even 2001 style landslide. Wasn't York Outer notionally Lib Dem when it was created? (at least according to some possibly sketchy notionals)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 16, 2020 21:33:06 GMT
York Central seems safe enough, though I'd argue that York Outer is a borderline marginal seat could possibly turn red in 1997 or maybe even 2001 style landslide. Wasn't York Outer notionally Lib Dem when it was created? (at least according to some possibly sketchy notionals) On the Rallings and Thrasher estimates the Lib Dems were just over 200 votes ahead, and it looked like a three way marginal. It would probably be a Labour seat in 1997/2001 but that's not where we are now, is it?
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Apr 16, 2020 21:36:29 GMT
York Central seems safe enough, though I'd argue that York Outer is a borderline marginal seat could possibly turn red in 1997 or maybe even 2001 style landslide. Wasn't York Outer notionally Lib Dem when it was created? From what I understand it indeed was, though as with quite a few seats we appear to have supplanted the Lib Dems as the principal challengers to the Conservatives. Additionally, after doing some quick-&-dirty calculations, assuming no boundary changes, were Labour and the Conservatives to achieve the vote shares they received in 1997 at the next General Election, York Outer would fall to Labour on a uniform CON-to-LAB swing (for all that a uniform swing is even worth...).
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Post by andrewp on Apr 16, 2020 21:56:11 GMT
So in other words, any non-gerrymander boundaries would have the same result in 2019 (one Labour one Tory), but the doughnut boundaries have made them two safe seats as opposed to two marginals. I guess switching the other way to doughnuts would create 2 safe seats in place of 2 marginals in other places that are currently split East/ West or North/ South like Reading and Derby.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 17, 2021 23:53:24 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 13.2% 543/650 Owner-occupied 53.0% 559/650 Private rented 25.8% 65/650 Social rented 18.9% 248/650 White 92.7% 375/650 Black 0.8% 296/650 Asian 4.3% 257/650 Managerial & professional 30.1% Routine & Semi-routine 24.6% Degree level 32.7% 124/650 No qualifications 18.1% 531/650 Students 18.0% 44/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 53.3% 473/573 Private rented 28.1% 79/573 Social rented 18.6% 197/573 White 90.9% Black 0.8% Asian 4.8% Managerial & professional 31.8% 290/573 Routine & Semi-routine 22.0% 354/573 Degree level 39.9% 103/573 No qualifications 13.4% 503/573 Students 18.7% 29/573
General Election 2019: York Central
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Rachael Maskell 27,312 55.2 –10.0 Conservative Fabia Tate 13,767 27.8 –2.4 Liberal Democrats James Blanchard 4,149 8.4 +3.7 Green Tom Franklin 2,107 4.3 Brexit Party Nicholas Szkiler 1,479 3.0 Yorkshire Andrew Snedden 557 1.1 SDP Andrew Dunn 134 0.3
Lab Majority 13,545 27.4 –7.6
Turnout 49,717 66.0 –3.7
Labour Co-op hold Swing 3.8 Lab to C
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Post by YL on Nov 23, 2022 18:21:07 GMT
The Boundary Commission's proposals make only minor changes to the two York constituencies, realigning with new ward boundaries.
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