Leeds West

[greenhert]

Leeds West was created in 1885 and currently comprises the wards of Armley, Bramley & Stanningley, Farnley & Wortley, and Kirkstall within the city of Leeds.

Leeds West covers the western portion of the major city of Leeds. It is a rather mixed constituency, neither especially poor not especially rich. It does however have a high proportion of social housing (29%), a low rate of owner occupation (51%), and its qualification levels are somewhat below the UK average. However, its ethnic demographics and occupational demographics are both relatively average.

Despite being a safe Labour seat, Leeds West has an interesting political history. In both 1974 elections, local Liberal activist and councillor Michael Meadowcroft came a strong second in the seat; the Liberals slipped to third place in 1979 with a different candidate but Mr Meadowcroft captured the seat in 1983. Being from the old radical liberal tradition, Conservative voters were less inclined to tactically vote for him than in for example Southwark & Bermondsey and he lost his seat to Labour in 1987. In 1988 he led a breakaway faction of Liberals opposed to the merger of the SDP and the Liberals into the Liberal Democrats and he contested Leeds West in 1992 under that banner, polling as many as 3,980 votes (8.3%) and saving his deposit (he was not far behind the Liberal Democrat candidate Viscount Morpeth either). The current Labour MP is Rachel Reeves, who is a noted neo-Blairite. The Green Party gathered some support under long-serving councillor David Blackburn in the Blair years, but it is evident that the rise in Green support was mainly a personal vote for Mr Blackburn and his wife Anna on Leeds Council; Leeds West did record the Green Party's best result in Leeds in 2015 but they have slipped back since. Farnley & Wortley is the only marginal ward in the constituency and is currently represented by a full slate of Green councillors; the rest of Leeds West is solidly Labour despite the Liberal Democrats' best efforts in Kirkstall in the late 2000s.

[gwynthegriff]

Apr 8, 2020 12:52:32 GMT @barnabymarder said:

Good profile. Might be worth mentioning that Meadowcroft (whom I regard as a crashing bore) is no longer in the Liberal Party but has been reconciled with the Liberal Democrats.

Quite some time ago now.

Of course, there's also his gardening role for Lord Bonkers.

[kvasir]

As mentioned, Leeds West was first created as a constituency name in 1885. The seat has almost always included the areas of Armley, Bramley, and Wortley. Farnley and Stanningley are often included. A significant change occurred when Kirkstall was moved into the constituency in 1983 despite the area normally being associated with Headingley. New ward boundaries were made in Leeds in 2004 and the new boundaries were fixed in 2010. New boundary changes in Leeds in 2018 did not substantively effect those in this constituency.

At first the seat was Liberal. As the Labour Party grew they decided to stand a candidate for the first time in post-war 1918 General Election going against the coalition backed Liberal John Murray. Labour selected the Leader of the Labour Group on the Council, John Arnott, a Scottish former blacksmith who would be heavily involved in Labour Politics in the city before finally winning a seat in Hull in the twenties. Arnott got 29.5% and Murray got 61.9%.

By the next election 1922 the Labour Party nominated a new candidate, Thomas Stamford. He was a bookbinder from Bradford and had served in Bradford City Council and then was president of the Bradford Trades and Labour Council. He achieved 48.3% to Murray's 51.7%, a dramatic improvement. By next years 1923 election the Tories decided to stand Alexander Renton as a Unionist and Labour stuck with Stamford. The Liberal incumbent Murray came third. Labour's Stamford lost support both in raw number and as a proportion but he came through the middle to take the seat. Stamford would face Renton again in 2024. With Murray moving back to Scotland to ultimately lose to the Labour incumbent, the Liberals select Herbert Brown. Stamford would win by only three votes.

Labour would hold the seat in the 1929 election with 47% on a turnout of 79%, an impressive result against two new candidates for the Liberals and the Unionists. The Liberal Party decided to not stand in 1931 and Stamford faced the Conservative Samuel Adams, known by his middle name Vyvyan. Stamford lost to Adams 37/63 which shouldn't be surprising for those who know their history since the '31 election was the government of national unity which saw the coalition receive 554 seats. Despite Labour gaining over a hundred seats in 1935, Leeds West was not one of them though Stamford stood again and narrowed the lead to 54/46. Vyvyan Adams was an interesting Tory. One of only two to vote against the Munich agreement with Hitler in 1938 and opposed the death penalty. He served as a Major in WWII. After the war in 1945 Adams lost to Stamford who had stood again, regaining his seat after 14 years turning a majority of 3,234 to a majority of 14,136, in part due to the brief return of a Liberal candidate James Booth. Stamford would remain an MP for a further four years before committing suicide. It isn't clear to me exactly why, but Stamford had been the standard bearer for Labour in Leeds West from 1922 to 1949.

This caused a by-election which was won by Charles Pannell, the Deputy Leader of the Labour group of Kent County Council. He would go on to hold the seat until his retirement in the February 1974 General Election. He would then become a Peer, Baron Pannell of the City of Leeds before dying in 1980. He was also briefly a minister for Public Buildings and works from '64 to '66. Pannell would win Leeds West by a series of convincing if not overwhelming majorities. In '51 his majority was cut to 3,400 (55/45). Labour never dropped below 50%, even when a Liberal stood in 1955, and then again from '64 onwards.

As mentioned, Pannell stood aside in Feb '74. Labour selected Joseph Dean (known as Joe). He was the leader of the Manchester Corporation. He had left school at 14 and became an engineering apprentice. During the first '74 election Michael Meadowcroft, a Liberal, managed to come second, overtaking the Conservatives. Joe Dean managed 42% of the total vote cast and had a majority of about 4,000. By the second '74 election Joe Dean managed 49.6% and increased his majority by 7,600 with Meadowcroft again coming second. Meadowcroft was dropped by '79 and Joe Dean managed a 49.4% and a majority of 9,700 with the Tories coming second, the new liberal candidate third, and the national front standing for the first time.

Then came '83. Meadowcroft stood again, he was a heavily involved in local council Liberal politics. He waged an impressive doorstep campaign. The result shocked Labour. Liberal's 17,908 to Labour's 15,860. Remember this also represented the inclusion of Kirkstall Ward in the seat for the first time. By the '87 election Labour selected John Battle. He had been a Labour Councillor in Leeds from 1980 and had stood for Labour in '83 in Leeds North West. Despite the difficulties nationally for Labour in '87, John Battle won the seat with 43% of the vote to Meadowcroft's 33%. By '92 John Battle increased his vote share to 55.1% with Meadowcroft standing for the old school Liberals coming fourth behind the Conservatives who came second and the Liberal Democrats who came third. The Greens came fifth (standing for the first time) and the National Front came sixth. The largest number of parties so far to have stood up to this point.

Labour get into government in '97 and John Battle increases his vote share to 26,819 votes or 66.7% of those cast. Second place went to the Conservatives with 7,048 with 17.5%. This was the largest majority Labour ever had for the seat, 19,771. In '45 Labour had managed 14,136. John Battle would defeat Kris Hopkins in 2001 (who would go on to come MP for Keighley in 2010) with ease. The 2005 election saw Labour's majority cut to 12,810 with the Liberal Democrats jumping to second with Darren Finlay. John Battle stood aside for the 2010 election which Labour are destined to lose. The Liberal Democrats try one last push, nominating Ruth Coleman who had been standing in the most Liberal friendly ward, Kirkstall, continuously for several rounds of elections. Whilst she did come second and increased the Lib Dem vote to 9,373, the Labour Party nominated Rachel Reeves who won 16,389 votes. Reeves got a PPE degree from Oxford, was a BoE economist and worked at the Washington D.C. embassy. Coleman's vote was not sufficient to win her the Kirkstall ward either, losing to Bernard Atha, a veteran councillor, 4,012 to 3,125. They will not come close again (as of the 2019 election).

Rachel Reeves was seen as a rising star, labelled by the media as part of the 'Nandos Five'. She would nominate and back Ed Miliband for the Labour Leadership. She ended up in the Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. She has a reputation for being very right wing. The reality is far less extreme. She became spokesperson for some of the Labour policies which were considered at the time too left wing (remember 'Red Ed') and therefore to balance that they were often framed in more centrist language. So yeah, she's become somewhat of a boogeyman for the Left Wing Labour. She actually doesn't do much to challenge the hard right caricature some on the left have established of her. But it is true she was not a massive fan of the sharp turn the party took with Corbyn, retreating from the Shadow Cabinet to the backbenches and becoming Chair of the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee.

Rachel Reeves has won the seat every election since. In 2017 she won her largest majority of just shy of 16,000 votes. The most recent election has a majority of about 10,500. It is unlikely that the seat is at risk in the short or medium term. Whilst in Leeds the city narrowly voted remain, the constituency is estimated to be a leave constituency 55%/45% though this is of course an estimate. Were the country to polarise even further on the cultural issues underlying the Brexit vote, it would be possible for someone to potentially challenge Labour here in the long term. But ultimately that is unlikely, Labour continue to attract Labour Leave voters for now. It would be unlikely for an opposition to unify behind one candidate.

In terms of future events, how Labour do in the local elections and the new West Yorkshire mayor election will probably be illustrative. Labour should be optimistic but also cautious. The Labour vote here is more moderate and traditionally Labour.

[swanarcadian]

An excellent profile kvasir
(I think you mean 1918 rather than 2018 in the second paragraph.)

[kvasir]

Dec 21, 2020 18:53:32 GMT swanarcadian said:

An excellent profile kvasir
(I think you mean 1918 rather than 2018 in the second paragraph.)

Ah, thank you, I did indeed mean 1918. The change has been made.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 51.5% 570/650
Private rented 17.6% 182/650
Social rented 28.9% 60/650
White 89.1% 451/650
Black 2.4% 158/650
Asian 5.0% 228/650
Managerial & professional 24.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.2%
Degree level 22.0% 437/650
No qualifications 27.3% 162/650
Students 10.5% 134/650
Age 65+ 13.0% 548/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 48.4% 510/573
Private rented 23.6% 136/573
Social rented 28.0% 47/573
White 83.2%
Black 4.9%
Asian 6.3%
Managerial & professional 27.0% 444/573
Routine & Semi-routine 28.4% 130/573
Degree level 30.0% 336/573
No qualifications 21.6% 135/573







General Election 2019: Leeds West

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Rachel Reeves 22,186 55.1 -8.9
Conservative Mark Dormer 11,622 28.9 +2.7
Brexit Party Philip Mars 2,685 6.7 N/A
Liberal Democrats Dan Walker 1,787 4.4 +2.3
Green Victoria Smith 1,274 3.2 +0.7
Yorkshire Ian Cowling 650 1.6 +0.7
SDP Daniel Whetstone 46 0.1 N/A
Alliance for Green Socialism Mike Davies 31 0.1 =

Lab Majority 10,564 26.2 -11.6

Turnout 40,281 59.5 -2.6

Labour hold

Swing 5.8 Lab to C

[YL]

The revised proposals of the Boundary Commission make substantial changes in the west and north-west of Leeds, including some potentially confusing choices of names.

The effect on this constituency is that it would on paper be abolished, but it is likely that its MP Rachel Reeves will follow the largest part of the constituency, the wards of Armley and Bramley & Stanningley, to the new Pudsey constituency; although that would share the name of an existing constituency and include the Pudsey and Calverley & Farsley wards at its core, it takes nearly as much of its electorate from this one. It is likely that the new Pudsey's political tendencies will to inherit the safe Labour inclinations of Leeds West rather than the marginality of the old Pudsey.

Of the other wards in this constituency, Farnley & Wortley goes to the new Morley seat, while Kirkstall is proposed to join parts of the existing Leeds Central and Leeds North West constituencies in a new constituency given the name Headingley.