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Post by greenhert on Apr 6, 2020 11:32:14 GMT
Portsmouth South was created in 1918 via a split in the Portsmouth constituency.
Portsmouth South is the "harbour end" of the city of Portsmouth, and contains the famous Royal Navy Portsmouth Base dockyard, the small seaside resort of Southsea, and Portsmouth University. Portsmouth South is slightly poorer than its neighbour Portsmouth North overall and also has greater income inequalities; Fratton in particular has areas of significant deprivation by south east England standards. It also has a high student population with most demographic statistics within the average range.
Portsmouth South used to be a safe Conservative seat, but a 1984 by-election upon the death of Bonner Pink changed all that. That was won by the SDP's Mike Hancock, who was a Labour, then SDP councillor in Fratton. Mr Hancock was unseated by only 205 votes in 1987 by David Martin, and Mr Martin held on again to Mr Hancock's next challenge, this time by the almost-as-narrow margin of 242 votes. Mr Hancock recaptured it in 1997 during the Conservative meltdown and held it for the next 18 years. In 2014 he resigned from the Liberal Democrats after a civil suit alleging sexual harassment was brought by a constituent of his; he contested the seat as an Independent in 2015 but received a derisory 716 votes; that year the Conservatives' Flick Drummond captured it. Surprisingly in 2017 she was defeated by Stephen Morgan, who became the first ever Labour MP for Portsmouth South. Against the national trend, Mr Morgan managed a further 3.9% swing against the Conservatives due to tactical voting from the Liberal Democrats, increasing his 2019 majority to almost 3 1/2 times that of his 2017 majority. At a local level this seat's wards are generally divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with Easney & Craneswater being the only reliably Conservative ward in the constituency.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 11, 2020 5:16:27 GMT
Portsmouth South was created in 1918 via a split in the Portsmouth constituency. Portsmouth South is the "harbour end" of the city of Portsmouth, and contains the famous Royal Navy Portsmouth Base dockyard, the small seaside resort of Southsea, and Portsmouth University. Portsmouth South is slightly poorer than its neighbour Portsmouth North overall and also has greater income inequalities; Fratton in particular has areas of significant deprivation by south east England standards. It also has a high student population with most demographic statistics within the average range. Portsmouth South used to be a safe Conservative seat, but a 1984 by-election upon the death of Bonner Pink changed all that. That was won by the SDP's Mike Hancock, who was a Labour, then SDP councillor in Fratton. Mr Hancock was unseated by only 205 votes in 1987 by David Martin, and Mr Martin held on again to Mr Hancock's next challenge, this time by the almost-as-narrow margin of 242 votes. Mr Hancock recaptured it in 1997 during the Conservative meltdown and held it for the next 18 years. In 2014 he resigned from the Liberal Democrats after a civil suit alleging sexual harassment was brought by a constituent of his; he contested the seat as an Independent in 2015 but received a derisory 716 votes; that year the Conservatives' Flick Drummond captured it. Surprisingly in 2017 she was defeated by Stephen Morgan, who became the first ever Labour MP for Portsmouth South. Against the national trend, Mr Morgan managed a further 3.9% swing against the Conservatives due to tactical voting from the Liberal Democrats, increasing his 2019 majority to almost 3 1/2 times that of his 2017 majority. At a local level this seat's wards are generally divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with Easney & Freshwater being the only reliably Conservative ward in the constituency.Do you mean Eastney and Craneswater, where reliably Conservative regular poster Khunanup has been one of the members since 2012? |
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 11, 2020 7:20:58 GMT
Has any MP’s death had a longer term impact on the politics of a constituency than Bonner Pink? Arguably the influence of the 1984 by-election has only just ceased to be significant in the past 4/5 years.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 11, 2020 8:25:45 GMT
Death maybe not, but the resignation of Bob Mellish in 1983 still has repercussions in the politics of Bermondsey & Old Southwark to this day. They are only now perhaps finally starting to work themselves slowly out. Arguably, the resignation of Richard Sharples has had a longer effect and on two constituencies rather than just one. The Liberals had not been a force in Sutton prior to the 1972 by-election but won seats on the council in 1974 (Graham Tope being one of them), planting the seeds of the dominance they would establish a decade later. This in turn led onto their victories in both parliamentary seats in 1997 and continued competitiveness today. More likely Carshalton & Wallington would have been a Labour gain in 1997 were it not for that history in the borough |
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Post by AdminSTB on Apr 11, 2020 8:46:19 GMT
Antony Lambton's resignation from Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973 is probably the prime example. It took 42 years for the Conservatives to win it back.
This is why we no longer see MPs being elevated to the House of Lords, and by-elections tend to be avoided like the plague. They can open huge cans of worms.
I think the Eastbourne by-election of 1990 had a lot of long term ramifications - it kept the Lib Dems competitive in the seat, putting them in a position to eventually win it in 2010 whereas in 1987 they had been nearly 17,000 behind. Plus it brought the Lib Dems out of single figures in the polls, which they didn't return to until the Coalition years.
There was Eastleigh 1994-2015. I doubt Stephen Milligan would have lost it had he remained alive.
More recent was Richmond Park. Zac Goldsmith was sitting on a majority of 23,000 in 2015...
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 11, 2020 9:05:02 GMT
I tend to think Goldsmith would have lost anyway in 2019. Certainly I think it would have been very close.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 11, 2020 11:21:10 GMT
Death maybe not, but the resignation of Bob Mellish in 1983 still has repercussions in the politics of Bermondsey & Old Southwark to this day. They are only now perhaps finally starting to work themselves slowly out. Arguably, the resignation of Richard Sharples has had a longer effect and on two constituencies rather than just one. The Liberals had not been a force in Sutton prior to the 1972 by-election but won seats on the council in 1974 (Graham Tope being one of them), planting the seeds of the dominance they would establish a decade later. This in turn led onto their victories in both parliamentary seats in 1997 and continued competitiveness today. More likely Carshalton & Wallington would have been a Labour gain in 1997 were it not for that history in the boroughGiven its electoral history as Carshalton, yes; after all Labour won Carshalton in the Greater London Council election of 1973. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 11, 2020 12:04:40 GMT
By a whisker, losing it by a hefty margin in 1977.
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Post by heslingtonian on Apr 11, 2020 14:16:18 GMT
Maybe : but the LDs' performance in 2015 had been so poor there was a possibility that, despite their long history, they might have suffered total Focus burnout and lost second place to Labour in 2017, when after all Labour surged in most of London, had Goldsmith not rescued their position with his spectacularly ill-judged resignation. If Labour had managed that, and I think it would have been touch and go, the Tories would have most likely held out against a split opposition in 2019. As a long-time local resident, however, I'm of the firm belief that ever since the long-ago days of Stanley Rundle the Liberals/Lib Dems have consistently failed to pick charismatic local candidates; Alan Watson probably would have won in 1983 had he been a little more relatable-to, Susan Kramer while a very nice woman was a little lightweight, Robin Meltzer was really poor in 2015, and Sarah Olney is hardly exceptional either. Jenny Tonge was more effective but had she stayed around she would be ruining it for the LDs by now. Had they had someone as effective as John Waller in Richmond (and, indeed, he used to live in Richmond) they might have won more often still. I think that’s a touch harsh on Kramer who I consider to be reasonably able and very generous on Tonge who would have to be one of my least favourite British politicians of all time. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 11, 2020 20:43:18 GMT
Antony Lambton's resignation from Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973 is probably the prime example. It took 42 years for the Conservatives to win it back. This is why we no longer see MPs being elevated to the House of Lords, and by-elections tend to be avoided like the plague. They can open huge cans of worms. Lambton didn't get elevated: he disclaimed the title and stayed an MP, leaving the Commons for quite different reasons. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Apr 11, 2020 20:50:25 GMT
Antony Lambton's resignation from Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973 is probably the prime example. It took 42 years for the Conservatives to win it back. This is why we no longer see MPs being elevated to the House of Lords, and by-elections tend to be avoided like the plague. They can open huge cans of worms. Lambton didn't get elevated: he disclaimed the title and stayed an MP, leaving the Commons for quite different reasons. Yes, I knew. I suppose I could have worded this better, but the point still stands. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 11, 2020 20:59:12 GMT
Lambton didn't get elevated: he disclaimed the title and stayed an MP, leaving the Commons for quite different reasons. Yes, I knew. I suppose I could have worded this better, but the point still stands. Having reread I can see what you mean. |
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Post by therealriga on Apr 11, 2020 21:18:21 GMT
Death maybe not, but the resignation of Bob Mellish in 1983 still has repercussions in the politics of Bermondsey & Old Southwark to this day. They are only now perhaps finally starting to work themselves slowly out. While not quite as long-lasting, Eric Varley's resignation in Chesterfield in January 1984 was still affecting the constituency in the 2010s. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Apr 11, 2020 21:41:23 GMT
Arguably, the resignation of Richard Sharples has had a longer effect and on two constituencies rather than just one. The Liberals had not been a force in Sutton prior to the 1972 by-election but won seats on the council in 1974 (Graham Tope being one of them), planting the seeds of the dominance they would establish a decade later. This in turn led onto their victories in both parliamentary seats in 1997 and continued competitiveness today. More likely Carshalton & Wallington would have been a Labour gain in 1997 were it not for that history in the boroughGiven its electoral history as Carshalton, yes; after all Labour won Carshalton in the Greater London Council election of 1973. yes indeed though funny enough Labour didn’t get particularly close to winning Carshalton in either 1974 election I wonder what the reason that was? Or do you think Carshalton could only have been won in exceptional landslide Labour years. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 12, 2020 16:28:46 GMT
It wasn't the only seat which voted Labour in the 1973 GLC election but Conservative in both 1974 general elections. Brentford & Isleworth is another and I think there are a few more. The Tories were doing quite a bit worse in 1973 than a year later. The others in that category were Croydon Central, Hampstead and Hendon North. Croydon North East does not count because that seat's 1973 GLC election was declared void on petition. |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 12, 2020 20:05:47 GMT
Not trying to be funny here, but I thought the whole point of these threads was to post electoral information in these particular seats not go off on a meander (I'm generally all in favour of that on our threads but these almanac ones aren't really discussion threads).
If you want to do that there's a thread for every existing parliament constituency elsewhere on the site (or if you want a discussion about which by-election had the greatest long term effect of imagine that's a good idea for a thread of its own).
I'd also strongly advise that if you're posting electoral facts etc on almanac pages you make sure they're factually correct, If we're using this as a reliable resource it's quite an important rider.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 20:23:46 GMT
Antony Lambton's resignation from Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1973 is probably the prime example. It took 42 years for the Conservatives to win it back. This is why we no longer see MPs being elevated to the House of Lords, and by-elections tend to be avoided like the plague. They can open huge cans of worms. I think the Eastbourne by-election of 1990 had a lot of long term ramifications - it kept the Lib Dems competitive in the seat, putting them in a position to eventually win it in 2010 whereas in 1987 they had been nearly 17,000 behind. Plus it brought the Lib Dems out of single figures in the polls, which they didn't return to until the Coalition years. There was Eastleigh 1994-2015. I doubt Stephen Milligan would have lost it had he remained alive. More recent was Richmond Park. Zac Goldsmith was sitting on a majority of 23,000 in 2015... Not sure I agree with Goldsmith. Look at the swing against the Tories in nearby Esher & Walton. Raab and Goldsmith were both out and proud Leavers in seats where that position was roundly rejected. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 9, 2021 12:19:54 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 12.0% 568/650
Owner-occupied 43.9% 610/650
Private rented 32.7% 17/650
Social rented 20.8% 192/650
White 84.1% 506/650
Black 2.6% 150/650
Asian 8.2% 148/650
Managerial & professional 26.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.0%
Employed in public administration & defence 10.1% 32/650
Degree level 26.2% 304/650
No qualifications 18.8% 506/650
Students 24.2% 17/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 42.9% 535/573
Private rented 36.7% 22/573
Social rented 20.4% 143/573
White 80.5%
Black 4.7%
Asian 8.8%
Managerial & professional 27.4% 427/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.5% 373/573
Degree level 33.0% 261/573
No qualifications 15.4% 410/573
Students 20.5% 21/537
General Election 2019: Portsmouth South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Stephen Morgan 23,068 48.6 +7.6
Conservative Donna Jones 17,705 37.3 -0.3
Liberal Democrats Gerald Vernon-Jackson 5,418 11.4 -5.9
Brexit Party John Kennedy 994 2.1
Justice & Anti-Corruption Steven George 240 0.5
Lab Majority 5,363 11.3 +7.9
Turnout 47,425 63.9 0.0
Labour hold
Swing 3.9 C to Lab
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2021 13:14:42 GMT
Boundary changes
In the initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England '2023 review' the boundaries of Portsmouth South were wholly unchanged.
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Post by batman on Nov 25, 2021 21:25:57 GMT
Has any MP’s death had a longer term impact on the politics of a constituency than Bonner Pink? Arguably the influence of the 1984 by-election has only just ceased to be significant in the past 4/5 years. the resignation of Bob Mellish in 1983 in Southwark, Bermondsey as it still was had a huge effect on the constituency and its similar successors. Even now the effect has still not worked itself out altogether, although Labour has made a major recovery since the 2010 election. Had he simply carried on until the general election, and there had been no by-election, I'm not convinced that Simon Hughes would have won, though it's possible he might have done. ( I see I made a similar comment last year.) |
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