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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 5, 2020 13:26:17 GMT
CHELSEA AND FULHAM
Although prestige and history guarantees Chelsea is named first, Fulham contributes almost twice as many voters to this wealthy but compact constituency in west London. In the 2019 electoral register, 21,487 voters from Chelsea and 38,554 from Fulham were part of the constituency.
Although a west London suburb, Fulham was generally regarded as a working-class area before gentrifying in the 1980s. Labour ran Fulham council from 1934 and except in 1949 it was a safe borough; Labour could win all the council seats in the constituency in a good year. This is no longer the case, although good politics over hospital closures and energetic campaigning by the local Labour Party has put it back in contention.
Fulham streets are full of terraced houses but many of them have been split up into flats, so that only a third of residents live in undivided houses. There are also many mansion flat blocks among the streets. The most valuable property is in the westernmost part of the constituency in streets around Craven Cottage and Fulham Palace.
Downstream, past the elite Hurlingham Club, the riverside area becomes much more industrial - although with several having recently been redeveloped. The largest of these developments is Imperial Wharf, built from 2009 on the site of Imperial Road Gas Works, and the earlier next door Chelsea Harbour development which was completed in the 1980s.
Mixed in with the streets of Fulham are lots of relatively small social housing estates: Sulivan Court Estate, Fulham Court Estate, Lancaster Court Estate, and the Samuel Lewis Trust Dwellings are among them. The largest council estate in Fulham was built in the 1960s by the Labour council which wanted to make sure its residents got the message: all 19 of the buildings on the Clem Attlee estate are named after Labour politicians. The estate was singled out as having deprivation problems in 2019.
One link between the two halves of this constituency is Chelsea Football Club, whose Stamford Bridge ground is within the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham. The ground is hemmed in by houses so the club has had difficulty with its plans to add more seats.
Even within the Chelsea element of the constituency there is a large council estate: the redbrick World's End Estate built in the 1970s. But if the nearby Kensington constituency puts together very wealthy and very poor areas, the Chelsea Riverside ward is an even more extreme example - consisting of council tenants living in 20 storey tower blocks, and 'old money' families in mansion blocks around Cheyne Walk.
Other than World's End only the Sutton Estate and Samuel Lewis Trust dwellings are small areas of social housing in Chelsea. For the rest, the Chelsea of popular imagination, as depicted by Peter York's humorous 'Sloane Ranger Handbook' in the early 1980s and constructed reality TV show 'Made in Chelsea' in the 2010s, of upper class and very wealthy young people enjoying their money, is not totally inaccurate.
There are distinct Conservative Party links as well. Mrs Thatcher lived in Flood Street before she became Prime Minister, and her ashes are now buried in the Royal Hospital where 300 army veterans are cared for.
Chelsea and Fulham were put together by the Boundary Commission in 2010 and clearly looked like a safe Conservative seat: the party topped 60% in the 2010 general election. The circumstances of 2017 did not help the party and its majority was nearly halved to 8,000. For the 2019 election the Liberal Democrats recruited a celebrity candidate - investment fund manager Nicola Horlick - and put a lot of effort into trying to win votes from the 70% of the constituency which backed Remain in the referendum. The Lib Dem vote rose 15% (one of the top 20 increases) but still put them 11,000 behind the Conservatives. For the first time the Conservative vote fell below 50% - just.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 6, 2021 19:37:11 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 11.6% 579/650
Very good health 59.8% 2/650
Owner-occupied 40.3% 617/650
Private rented 33.4% 13/650
Social rented 22.6% 152/650
White 77.3% 540/650
Black 5.9% 87/650
Asian 7.4% 165/650
Country of birth EU pre-2001 states 12.4% 3/650
Managerial & professional 53.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 9.5%
Associate professional and technical occupations 24.9% 1/650
Real estate activities 4.1% 1/650
Degree level 53.7% 6/650
No qualifications 10.3% 646/650
Students 9.1% 174/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 38.3% 547/573
Private rented 38.7% 13/573
Social rented 23.0% 94/573
White 71.9%
Black 7.1%
Asian 8.8%
Managerial & professional 50.8% 6/573
Routine & Semi-routine 11.4% 569/573
Degree level 61.5% 6/573
No qualifications 10.2% 563/573
General Election 2019: Chelsea and Fulham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Greg Hands 23,345 49.9 -2.7
Liberal Democrats Nicola Horlick 12,104 25.9 +14.9
Labour Matt Uberoi 10,872 23.2 -10.0
Animal Welfare Sam Morland 500 1.0
C Majority 11,241 24.0 +4.6
Turnout 46,821 69.8 +3.7
Registered electors 67,110
Conservative hold
Swing 8.8 C to LD
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2022 6:16:52 GMT
Chelsea & Fulham is well undersized with an electorate of only 65,000. The initial proposals by the boundary commission added the wards of Fulham Reach and West Kensington in Fulham, bringing almost all of the old Fulham borough into this seat so that it would account for around 55,000 of the 76,000 total electorate. Additionally the Royal Hospital ward and the part of Brompton & Hans Town ward included (basically Hans Town) were to be removed but the Courtfield ward added from Kensington, so only about 11,000 voters would remain from Chelsea itself and another 9,000 in South Kensington. Accordingly the name would change to Fulham & Chelsea West which reflects the shift in the balance here (although Fulham is already clearly the largest element in the existing seat).
The revised proposals maintain this essential shift in the balance with the additions from Fulham but Royal Hospital remains in the seat and Courtfield remains in Kensington.
The name remains the as Chelsea & Fulham but well over two thirds of the electorate will be in Fulham.
These are not politically neutral changes. The Fulham Reach and West Kensington wards are strongly Labour now and will put Labour clearly into second place, reducing the notional Conservative majority to four figures. While only a couple of thousand voters are removed in the Hans Town area, these are heavily Conservative and this will increase the effect. What should still be a safe Conservative seat is now in range in the event of a 1997 style landslide and if Labour were to win here the boundary changes will likely have proved decisive.
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Post by rockefeller on Nov 25, 2022 6:30:41 GMT
Chelsea & Fulham is well undersized with an electorate of only 65,000. The initial proposals by the boundary commission added the wards of Fulham Reach and West Kensington in Fulham, bringing almost all of the old Fulham borough into this seat so that it would account for around 55,000 of the 76,000 total electorate. Additionally the Royal Hospital ward and the part of Brompton & Hans Town ward included (basically Hans Town) were to be removed but the Courtfield ward added from Kensington, so only about 11,000 voters would remain from Chelsea itself and another 9,000 in South Kensington. Accordingly the name would change to Fulham & Chelsea West which reflects the shift in the balance here (although Fulham is already clearly the largest element in the existing seat). The revised proposals maintain this essential shift in the balance with the additions from Fulham but Royal Hospital remains in the seat and Courtfield remains in Kensington. The name remains the as Chelsea & Fulham but well over two thirds of the electorate will be in Fulham. These are not politically neutral changes. The Fulham Reach and West Kensington wards are strongly Labour now and will put Labour clearly into second place, reducing the notional Conservative majority to four figures. While only a couple of thousand voters are removed in the Hans Town area, these are heavily Conservative and this will increase the effect. What should still be a safe Conservative seat is now in range in the event of a 1997 style landslide and if Labour were to win here the boundary changes will likely have proved decisive. How would this seat have voted in 1997, Pete? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2022 6:43:38 GMT
Chelsea & Fulham is well undersized with an electorate of only 65,000. The initial proposals by the boundary commission added the wards of Fulham Reach and West Kensington in Fulham, bringing almost all of the old Fulham borough into this seat so that it would account for around 55,000 of the 76,000 total electorate. Additionally the Royal Hospital ward and the part of Brompton & Hans Town ward included (basically Hans Town) were to be removed but the Courtfield ward added from Kensington, so only about 11,000 voters would remain from Chelsea itself and another 9,000 in South Kensington. Accordingly the name would change to Fulham & Chelsea West which reflects the shift in the balance here (although Fulham is already clearly the largest element in the existing seat). The revised proposals maintain this essential shift in the balance with the additions from Fulham but Royal Hospital remains in the seat and Courtfield remains in Kensington. The name remains the as Chelsea & Fulham but well over two thirds of the electorate will be in Fulham. These are not politically neutral changes. The Fulham Reach and West Kensington wards are strongly Labour now and will put Labour clearly into second place, reducing the notional Conservative majority to four figures. While only a couple of thousand voters are removed in the Hans Town area, these are heavily Conservative and this will increase the effect. What should still be a safe Conservative seat is now in range in the event of a 1997 style landslide and if Labour were to win here the boundary changes will likely have proved decisive. How would this seat have voted in 1997, Pete? I like these sort of questions. I make it Conservative with a lead of about 1,400 or 3% - roughly 45/42 |
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Post by batman on Nov 25, 2022 8:51:32 GMT
How many other constituencies are named after two towns both of which have league football teams? (even though of course Chelsea FC is a misnomer). Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath comes to mind too although of course Kirkcaldy's league team is called Raith Rovers & is supported by Gordon Brown
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2022 22:30:17 GMT
How many other constituencies are named after two towns both of which have league football teams? (even though of course Chelsea FC is a misnomer). Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath comes to mind too although of course Kirkcaldy's league team is called Raith Rovers & is supported by Gordon Brown And Cowdenbeath were removed from the Scottish League itself at the end of last season after yet another dismal season led to them finishing bottom of Div 2, and replaced after a playoff by Bonnyrigg Rose, from Midlothian. |
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Post by batman on Nov 25, 2022 23:25:56 GMT
damn, they did that only to annoy psephologists & collectors of political facts.
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Post by Clark on Nov 26, 2022 9:14:03 GMT
How many other constituencies are named after two towns both of which have league football teams? (even though of course Chelsea FC is a misnomer). Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath comes to mind too although of course Kirkcaldy's league team is called Raith Rovers & is supported by Gordon Brown And Cowdenbeath were removed from the Scottish League itself at the end of last season after yet another dismal season led to them finishing bottom of Div 2, and replaced after a playoff by Bonnyrigg Rose, from Midlothian. Not included in the title name but I think Kelty Hearts is another football team within this seat. Kelty played Cowdenbeath back in March this year - you can't get a more left wing derby than that ! |
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Post by batman on Nov 26, 2022 10:31:14 GMT
Liverpool v Everton would be a pretty strong candidate although Liverpool in particular do have Southern fans who are more likely to vote Conservative.
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Post by Clark on Nov 26, 2022 16:40:36 GMT
Klopp himself is a socialist - he's a good fit for that club.
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 26, 2022 16:55:40 GMT
And Cowdenbeath were removed from the Scottish League itself at the end of last season after yet another dismal season led to them finishing bottom of Div 2, and replaced after a playoff by Bonnyrigg Rose, from Midlothian. Not included in the title name but I think Kelty Hearts is another football team within this seat. Kelty played Cowdenbeath back in March this year - you can't get a more left wing derby than that ! Alas, the boundary changes remove it and put it in the Glenrothes seat instead. Though that will then have its own unsual distinction - two football league teams but neither in towns represented in the constituency name! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2022 22:27:36 GMT
Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries | Con | 25064 | 45.3% | | Lab | 16180 | 29.2% | | LD | 13103 | 23.7% | | Grn | 822 | 1.5% | | BxP | 199 | 0.4% | | Oth | | | | | | | | Majority | 8884 | 16.0% |
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Post by batman on Nov 28, 2022 8:46:12 GMT
think that in current circumstances we will fancy our chances in the redrawn seat
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Post by spinach on Dec 26, 2022 21:51:31 GMT
West Brompton - 41.0% White Other
The MSOA with the 2nd highest White Other % in England and Wales 2021.
Nearby wards such as Notting Hill Gate and South, Fulham Road, Kensington Gardens, South Kensington, Bayswater East, Queensway and Knightsbridge are all 30%+ White Other.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 27, 2022 8:29:07 GMT
West Brompton - 41.0% White Other The MSOA with the 2nd highest White Other % in England and Wales 2021. Nearby wards such as Notting Hill Gate and South, Fulham Road, Kensington Gardens, South Kensington, Bayswater East, Queensway and Knightsbridge are all 30%+ White Other. There are very large percentages of "white other" in London. In fact of the 32 constituencies with over 16% in this category, 31 are in London, the only exception being Cambridge, where presumably the university/research industries have brought in many foreigners. Outside London the next half dozen are Peterborough, Northampton South, Oxford East, Luton South, Bedford, Boston & Skegness. |
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Post by batman on Dec 27, 2022 11:05:26 GMT
What sort of White Others are we mainly talking about here? Traditionally there were a lot of Australians but I'm guessing this is somewhat reduced. Perhaps a lot of French people instead?
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 27, 2022 16:20:50 GMT
What sort of White Others are we mainly talking about here? Traditionally there were a lot of Australians but I'm guessing this is somewhat reduced. Perhaps a lot of French people instead? As you might expect, it's an incredibly diverse mix - these are the most common national identities recorded locally at the 2021 census*:
French: 3,883 (3.4%) Italian: 3,509 (3.1%) Other EU member countries in 2001: 2,761 (2.4%) Non EU Other European: 2,526 (2.2%) US American: 2,295 (2.0%) Spanish: 1,950 (1.7%) Irish: 1,642 (1.5%) Australian: 1,185 (1.0%) Other EU member countries **: 1,082 (1.0%) South American: 978 (0.9%) Portuguese: 968 (0.9%) German: 918 (0.8%)
Overall 70.5% of Chelsea and Fulham residents identified partially or wholly as British; 18.7% identified solely with a European national identity (including Irish); 3.7% identified solely with an American national identity; 1.3% identified solely with an Oceanian identity.
* I have removed identities where you'd have relatively few people classed as "White Other" - this includes both the British/English identities (most people identifying as British would be either "White British" or one of the various ethnic minority categories) as well as identities such as Chinese which would have very few, if any, white respondents. Probably the one noteworthy figure here is that 7,296 residents identified as both British and a non-British identity - quite possibly one of the ones I've listed.
** This appears to mean any EU member state which joined the EU following 2001 but is not Lithuania, Poland, or Romania.
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Post by spinach on Dec 27, 2022 19:18:34 GMT
What sort of White Others are we mainly talking about here? Traditionally there were a lot of Australians but I'm guessing this is somewhat reduced. Perhaps a lot of French people instead? This part of London has the highest concentration of French nationals in England and Wales. For example, South Kensington is 8.0% French (perhaps the highest in the country). As posted by bjornhattan, there's a diverse range of European nationals living in West Brompton and neighbouring wards. Australians only make up 1.1% of the population. |
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Post by spinach on Dec 27, 2022 19:32:32 GMT
The only MSOAs in this constituency which are majority White British:
Fulham Palace and Hurlingham Park - 54.8%
Munster - 51.3%
Some OAs near Parsons Green, Elm Brook Common and south of Kings Road are 50%+ White British. The OA which covers The Royal Chelsea Hospital is 80.7% White British.
However, all MSOAs which covers this constituency are majority white. The highest below:
Fulham Palace and Hurlingham Park - 82.5% White
Munster - 80.9% White
Chelsea Manor and Royal Hospital - 79.0%
Chelsea Riverside East - 78.8% White
Fulham Road - 77.1% White
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