Post by John Chanin on Apr 4, 2020 14:32:48 GMT
The most remarkable thing about East Ham is that it is probably the most cosmopolitan constituency in the country. Not only does it have the lowest white proportion (less than a quarter), but the ethnic minorities are vary varied. South Asian households account for about half the population but are very evenly split between those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi origin. The constituency has the 4th largest Bangladeshi percentage, the 10th largest Indian, and the 15th largest Pakistani. It also has the 11th largest “other asian”, which includes some from the Indian subcontinent who choose to self-classify differently from the census categories, but also exotic communities of Sri Lankan Tamils and Filipinos, not to speak of people from the middle east. Those classifying as of African origin are of similar size to the south Asian communities, and there are significant numbers of people from the older settled Caribbean communities.
Geographically the constituency can be divided into 3 parts. In the north is Manor Park, on the west bank of the Roding and bordering Wanstead Flats, the southernmost manifestation of Epping Forest. This consists of long leafy streets of late Victorian and Edwardian terraced houses. There is also a large council estate in Little Ilford, and a third of residents are social housing tenants. In the centre is East Ham proper. Three-quarters of the population here is Asian, clustered around Green Street (which forms the boundary with West Ham, and is a real little India in its thriving shopping centre. West Ham FC’s old Boleyn Ground sat on the East Ham side of Green Street, but is now being redeveloped into 800 mostly private homes. East Ham High Street is not too different, but there is more ethnic variety in the east and south of this area. The housing is mainly smaller than in Manor Park but of a similar vintage, although there are more recent council estates interspersed , including the large Hathaway Crescent estate by the Roding. South of the A13 Newham way though is a completely different world. This is the “new town” of Beckton, developed in the 1980s and 1990s on derelict industrial land north of the docks. This was originally planned by the London Docklands Development Corporation as private housing, but the recession of the early 1990s led to a majority of the housing here being social housing. The area also contains a retail park at Gallions Reach, (once the site of the “Beckton Alps”, an artificial ski slope), which sits between Beckton and the great sewage works at the terminus of the Northern Outfall Sewer - a sewer so large that it sticks up above the landscape, and forms a linear park known as the Greenway, which snakes through the borough of Newham. Beckton is separated from the Thames by the Royal Docks, no longer functioning as such. In the middle of the docks sits the London City Airport. South of the docks is North Woolwich - an area that was bombed flat in the second world war, and redeveloped as council housing afterwards. A curiosity is that it formed part of Woolwich Borough until the reorganization of London government in 1965. The Woolwich Ferry still runs across the river here (and there is a foot tunnel). Further upstream, past the derelict Tate & Lyle factory, is the Thames Barrier, on the other side of which is Silvertown. There is industry alongside the river, but inland a lot of smart and expensive modern housing has been developed in the 1990s and 2000s overlooking the Victoria Dock. The Royal Docks ward is therefore surprisingly schizophrenic.
One other major feature of the seat is the high level of private renting - the 9th highest in the country. Nowhere is owner-occupation more than half households. The older housing in the north and the new housing in the south have equally high renting figures. In the north many fewer homes are owner-occupied than they used to be, as this is an area where much of the private housing has been snapped up by landlords over the years - as many households rent privately as own their property and overcrowding is rife. A surprising amount of the new housing in the south has also been acquired by private landlords, and the balance between renting and owning is even higher in favour of the former. As elsewhere in the inner city, right to buy has had less effect on the number of council homes, and all of the more recent development is housing association. Social renting remains high. Economically this is a very working class seat, with low managerial and high routine workers for London. It is also the second youngest seat in England - only neighbouring Poplar & Limehouse having a smaller over 65 population, as a result of the large number of ethnic minority households in overcrowded rental accommodation. Consequently its student numbers and educational qualifications are surprisingly high for such a working class seat. Put all this together and you have a recipe for a very safe Labour seat, and indeed until 2019, when Labour slipped a bit, it was the safest Labour seat outside Merseyside. Locally all the wards are safe for Labour. The MP here is Stephen Timms, first elected at a by-election in 1994 prior to which he was leader of Newham Council. He was a senior minister under the last Labour government.
East Ham is a very large seat, a combination of new development and cramming of poorer households, and as a result needs substantial modification under the new rules for constituency size. The Boundary Commission is proposing to move two whole wards, covering the Beckton and Royal Docks area, to West Ham. This will significantly change the character of the seat, with almost all the new development being lost, and will probably, if that is possible, make it even less white, and more Labour than it already is.
Census data: owner-occupied 39% (547/573 in England & Wales), private rented 35% (9th), social rented 25% (88th).
:White 23%, Black 16%, Sth Asian 45%, Mixed 4%, Other 12%
: Managerial & professional 29% (447th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (169th)
: Degree 30% (176th), Minimal qualifications 32% (408th)
: Students 16% (29th), Over 65: 7% (572nd)
Geographically the constituency can be divided into 3 parts. In the north is Manor Park, on the west bank of the Roding and bordering Wanstead Flats, the southernmost manifestation of Epping Forest. This consists of long leafy streets of late Victorian and Edwardian terraced houses. There is also a large council estate in Little Ilford, and a third of residents are social housing tenants. In the centre is East Ham proper. Three-quarters of the population here is Asian, clustered around Green Street (which forms the boundary with West Ham, and is a real little India in its thriving shopping centre. West Ham FC’s old Boleyn Ground sat on the East Ham side of Green Street, but is now being redeveloped into 800 mostly private homes. East Ham High Street is not too different, but there is more ethnic variety in the east and south of this area. The housing is mainly smaller than in Manor Park but of a similar vintage, although there are more recent council estates interspersed , including the large Hathaway Crescent estate by the Roding. South of the A13 Newham way though is a completely different world. This is the “new town” of Beckton, developed in the 1980s and 1990s on derelict industrial land north of the docks. This was originally planned by the London Docklands Development Corporation as private housing, but the recession of the early 1990s led to a majority of the housing here being social housing. The area also contains a retail park at Gallions Reach, (once the site of the “Beckton Alps”, an artificial ski slope), which sits between Beckton and the great sewage works at the terminus of the Northern Outfall Sewer - a sewer so large that it sticks up above the landscape, and forms a linear park known as the Greenway, which snakes through the borough of Newham. Beckton is separated from the Thames by the Royal Docks, no longer functioning as such. In the middle of the docks sits the London City Airport. South of the docks is North Woolwich - an area that was bombed flat in the second world war, and redeveloped as council housing afterwards. A curiosity is that it formed part of Woolwich Borough until the reorganization of London government in 1965. The Woolwich Ferry still runs across the river here (and there is a foot tunnel). Further upstream, past the derelict Tate & Lyle factory, is the Thames Barrier, on the other side of which is Silvertown. There is industry alongside the river, but inland a lot of smart and expensive modern housing has been developed in the 1990s and 2000s overlooking the Victoria Dock. The Royal Docks ward is therefore surprisingly schizophrenic.
One other major feature of the seat is the high level of private renting - the 9th highest in the country. Nowhere is owner-occupation more than half households. The older housing in the north and the new housing in the south have equally high renting figures. In the north many fewer homes are owner-occupied than they used to be, as this is an area where much of the private housing has been snapped up by landlords over the years - as many households rent privately as own their property and overcrowding is rife. A surprising amount of the new housing in the south has also been acquired by private landlords, and the balance between renting and owning is even higher in favour of the former. As elsewhere in the inner city, right to buy has had less effect on the number of council homes, and all of the more recent development is housing association. Social renting remains high. Economically this is a very working class seat, with low managerial and high routine workers for London. It is also the second youngest seat in England - only neighbouring Poplar & Limehouse having a smaller over 65 population, as a result of the large number of ethnic minority households in overcrowded rental accommodation. Consequently its student numbers and educational qualifications are surprisingly high for such a working class seat. Put all this together and you have a recipe for a very safe Labour seat, and indeed until 2019, when Labour slipped a bit, it was the safest Labour seat outside Merseyside. Locally all the wards are safe for Labour. The MP here is Stephen Timms, first elected at a by-election in 1994 prior to which he was leader of Newham Council. He was a senior minister under the last Labour government.
East Ham is a very large seat, a combination of new development and cramming of poorer households, and as a result needs substantial modification under the new rules for constituency size. The Boundary Commission is proposing to move two whole wards, covering the Beckton and Royal Docks area, to West Ham. This will significantly change the character of the seat, with almost all the new development being lost, and will probably, if that is possible, make it even less white, and more Labour than it already is.
Census data: owner-occupied 39% (547/573 in England & Wales), private rented 35% (9th), social rented 25% (88th).
:White 23%, Black 16%, Sth Asian 45%, Mixed 4%, Other 12%
: Managerial & professional 29% (447th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (169th)
: Degree 30% (176th), Minimal qualifications 32% (408th)
: Students 16% (29th), Over 65: 7% (572nd)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Labour | 35,471 | 70.4% | 40,563 | 77.6% | 47,124 | 83.2% | 41,703 | 76.3% |
Conservative | 7,645 | 15.2% | 6,311 | 12.1% | 7,241 | 12.8% | 8,527 | 15.6% |
Liberal Democrat | 5,849 | 11.6% | 856 | 1.6% | 656 | 1.2% | 2,158 | 4.0% |
UKIP/Brexit | 2,622 | 5.0% | 697 | 1.2% | 1,107 | 2.0% | ||
Green | 586 | 1.2% | 1,299 | 2.5% | 474 | 0.8% | 883 | 1.6% |
Others | 822 | 1.6% | 639 | 1.2% | 451 | 0.8% | 250 | 0.5% |
Majority | 27,826 | 55.2% | 34,252 | 65.5% | 39,883 | 70.4% | 33,176 | 60.7% |
