Brighton Pavilion

[Deleted]

The Grand Hotel is also in this seat, made infamous by the 1984 IRA bombing.

This is the Conservatives' weakest seat in the South East.

When Julian Amery was first elected here in 1969, the Tories got over 70% of the vote.

Since 1979, the Tory vote here fell at each General Election.

[John Chanin]

Here as promised is a new profile

This seat is central Brighton, covering the resort area with its hotels and restaurants and pier, the Brighton Centre where party conferences are held, the ludicrous i360 tower along the coast, the main shopping centre along Western Road, and the grand street leading from the central clocktower up to Brighton’s palatial station. Down in the valley on the eastern edge of the seat alongside the A23 is the indianate folly of the Royal Pavilion, after which the constituency is quaintly named. But the majority of the constituency inland is much less exotic, and has considerable variety.

This seat is one of the best examples of major social and demographic change with a unique recent political history. Even in 1966 this was a safe Conservative constituency. Julian Amery had 70% of the vote on winning the 1969 by-election and had majorities of around 10,000 in the 1980s. But inexorably the majorities reduced thereafter. Labour were boosted a little by the addition of Hanover ward from Kemptown in 1997, and sure enough the seat fell then to Labour, becoming for the first time better for them than Kemptown. It looked safe in 2001, but the Greens made a big advance in 2005, and with the unpopularity of the Labour government fell narrowly to Caroline Lucas on a low share of the vote in 2010. Subsequently she has made it into a safe seat, and this is not entirely a personal vote as the Greens have considerable local strength in the constituency. They led Brighton & Hove council indeed between 2011 and 2015, holding most of the seats in this constituency, although their rule was troubled and they lost half their seats in 2015, before recovering some ground in 2019. They currently have 15 councillors in Pavilion to 3 for the Conservatives and 2 for Labour.

Originally the resort area with its hotels and small businesses was very Conservative as similar places elsewhere in the country, but the Regency ward which covers the coast and the boutique shops and restaurants of the Lanes, is now a safe Green ward locally, as is the St Peters & North Laine ward that covers the city centre. Over half the households in this area rent privately, and there are significant number of students, particularly in the terraces of small houses around the station. Inland is Preston Park, with Brighton’s second station on the fast railways into London with high levels of commuters in semi-detached houses. But this area has changed too. It may have the highest level of managerial workers in the city, but private renting is also high, and this area above all deserves the familiar accolade of “London by the sea”. Hanover ward is really part of Kemptown, and the core of the gay community for which Brighton is famous. There are many students here too in Elm Grove, close to the main campus of Brighton University. These two wards vote Green as well, although the contest with Labour is closer. The Conservative vote has eroded away, in these 4 central wards where 50% of the population have degrees.

The outer part of the constituency is rather different. To the north-east alongside the A27 road to Lewes sits the small council-owned terraces of Coldean, the only significant council housing in the seat, and on the city boundary the large campus of Sussex University at Stanmer where there is much student housing on site. This is directly opposite the equally large Falmer campus of Brighton university (in Kemptown constituency), and there can’t be many places in the country where two universities sit side by side, or indeed where a small city like Brighton has two big universities. Students form a full third of the electorate here, and with Hollingdean part of the Preston Park area, this ward is also a Green/Labour marginal. Patcham and Withdean to the north-west however remain more traditional suburbs with a strong Conservative vote. Patcham is safe for them, and Withdean ward which includes the northern part of Preston Park (and the station), is a Green/Conservative marginal. As the statistics below show the seat comes in the top 50 for both managerial occupations and educational qualifications, but in the top 20 for private renting - a demography similar to parts of London, although there are more students here, as both universities have expanded massively over the last 20 years. Alongside this, the constituency is one of the youngest in Britain, rather different from other south coast towns.

The MP since 2010 is Caroline Lucas, a former charity worker, who was a lead figure in the Green Party, and their representative in the European Parliament, and had no links with Brighton prior to her selection as candidate here. As the most prominent Green in the country she took over as candidate in the seat where the Greens had polled highest in 2005.

The Boundary Commission originally proposed swapping Queens Park ward and Hanover & Elm Grove, but following consultation has settled for moving just 2000 voters from the latter ward, just enough to bring Kemptown up to size.

Census data: owner-occupied 55% (489/573 in England & Wales), private rented 33% (18th), social rented 12% (439th).
                      :White 89%, Black 1%, South Asian 2%, Mixed 4%, Other 4%
                      : Managerial & professional 49% (47th), Routine & Semi-routine 19% (528th)
                      : Degree level 40%(43rd), Minimal qualifications 22%(566th)
                      : Students 18% (23rd), Over 65 10% (531st)

	2010	%	2015	%	2017	%	2019	%
Green	16,238	31.3%	22,871	41.8%	30,139	52.3%	33,151	57.2%
Labour	14,986	28.9%	14,904	27.3%	15,450	26.8%	13,211	22.8%
Conservative	12,275	23.7%	12,448	22.8%	11,082	19.2%	10,176	17.5%
Liberal Democrat	7,159	13.8%	1,525	2.8%
UKIP/Brexit	948	1.8%	2,724	5.0%	630	1.1%	770	1.3%
Others	228	0.5%	204	0.4%	376	0.7%	690	1.2%
Majority	1,252	2.4%	7,967	14.6%	14,689	25.5%	19,940	34.4%

[Pete Whitehead]

A very good profile as always, but I don't think your description of Coldean is quite right

[John Chanin]

Jul 21, 2020 9:44:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

A very good profile as always, but I don't think your description of Coldean is quite right

Sorry.  Not a part of Brighton I know well, and my memory was wrong.  The 30% council housing in the ward was staring at me from my spreadsheet.  Will amend. 

[Deleted]

London-on-sea is accurate. Just look at the house prices!

[batman]

the Bates estate south of Coldean, which in my day was in Hollingbury ward, along the old A27 is quite a significant council estate as well, it was plastered with red election posters in the 80s. There are other council estates of some consequence in Stanmer (not the old village in its eponymous park but in the general area) and also in the more easterly part of Patcham, although that's of course not typical of Patcham. Also along the Ditchling Road north of The Level there is a bit of a council estate too.

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census

Owner occupied 52.7% 482/573
Private rented 35.5% 27/573
Social rented 11.8% 436/573
White 85.3%
Black 2.0%
Asian 5.0%
Managerial & professional 38.9% 124/573
Routine & Semi-routine 13.5% 555/573
Degree level 47.5% 46/573
No qualifications 9.3% 569/573



No religion 60.1% 2/650

2011 Census
No religion 48.4% 1/650

Managerial & professional 37.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 14.2%
Degree level 40.4% 165/573
No qualifications 12.2% 561/573


(statistics here measured the same way as I do, John has a different method in his post above)

[Pete Whitehead]

2019 Notional Results on new boundaries

Grn	32166	57.0%
Lab	12807	22.7%
Con	10054	17.8%
BxP	759	1.3%
Oth	671	1.2%
Majority	19359	34.3%

[anthony]

I thought Labour had a chance here - think they're now fairly likely to gain the seat - although I wondered if Zack Polanski might go for it

[batman]

Before Caroline Lucas's retirement, we had almost no chance, if any at all. Now, things are different. And they still will be if Zack stands.

[johnloony]

Three factors:

1. Different boundaries (not a big deal, but not negligible)

2. Unpopularity of local Green council might put people off

3. But it occurs to me that there is something which Caroline Lucas said: being the front-bench spokesperson on every issue in the House of Commons is distracting her from being able to concentrate on the issues of climate change and environmental emergency which she sees as the priority. If she thinks that being a non-MP is going to be more effective in campaigning successfully on the issues which matter than being an MP, what’s the point of having a Green Party MP at all? If we had PR, and/or if the Green Party had a handful of MPs instead of just one, it might make a difference. So it’s a bit chicken-and-egg.

[mattbewilson]

Something I wondered. The party seem to be changing a lot. They changed their position on NATO. They've altered their party colour. They're making in roads in places you'd typically see Lib Dems or New Labour making in Tory councils. I saw someone today say that the Greens progress in new places is a new realignment and where they make ground will compensate for lost ground in Brighton.

The party seem to be moving on from Caroline Lucas and Brighton.

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2023 21:24:02 GMT mattbewilson said:

Something I wondered. The party seem to be changing a lot. They changed their position on NATO. They've altered their party colour. They're making in roads in places you'd typically see Lib Dems or New Labour making in Tory councils. I saw someone today say that the Greens progress in new places is a new realignment and where they make ground will compensate for lost ground in Brighton.

The party seem to be moving on from Caroline Lucas and Brighton.

For a moment there I wondered if the Greens had done something wonderfully mind-bending and confusing like adopting pink as their colour.
Alas, no. Just a different shade of green.

[sirbenjamin]

Nov 30, 2022 21:58:41 GMT Robert Waller said:

No religion 48.4% 1/650

Will all change when Wokeism gets officially classified as the religion it clearly is.

[batman]

it's only a religion to idiots who go on ad nauseam about it.

[manchesterman]

I still dont think anyone can define "wokeism" [I'veseen it used in the most bizarre scenarios, my favourite being a Daily Mail article about "woke windfarms"!!]   and whenever I see the word "woke" used in a political argument I just think of it as papering over a lack of a proper coherent argument and is basically the right's equivalent of the left calling those on the right "fascists" just because they dont agree with them!

Nebulous. Fatuous. Vacuous.

[Deleted]

If Sian Berry runs here, she probably has the best chance of keeping it Green, and the majority is probably cushion enough for 2024, but beyond that it might swing back to Labour enough for the red team to win it again. You could easily paint Sian as a Camden-based carpetbagger though. It also depends if the Lib Dems stand, since they probably helped the Greens in the last couple of elections, albeit inconsequentially. 

[The Bishop]

I think the LibDems might revert to fighting every GB seat (Speaker excepted) at the next GE.

[bsjmcr]

Jul 1, 2023 6:42:01 GMT @weld said:

If Sian Berry runs here, she probably has the best chance of keeping it Green, and the majority is probably cushion enough for 2024, but beyond that it might swing back to Labour enough for the red team to win it again. You could easily paint Sian as a Camden-based carpetbagger though. It also depends if the Lib Dems stand, since they probably helped the Greens in the last couple of elections, albeit inconsequentially. 

Isn’t Brighton pretty much full of Camden-based carpetbaggers though, so not sure if this will be as much of a negative as it would be in a more provincial area.

Say if Bristol (West) was the only Green seat, rather than Brighton, and the incumbent stood down there then I can imagine a London based candidate may not go down as well, but even then there is probably less animosity to London than in the north - speaking of nearby Frome, which apparently is growing as a London commuter town. 

[greenhert]

Jul 2, 2023 2:28:17 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jul 1, 2023 6:42:01 GMT @weld said:

If Sian Berry runs here, she probably has the best chance of keeping it Green, and the majority is probably cushion enough for 2024, but beyond that it might swing back to Labour enough for the red team to win it again. You could easily paint Sian as a Camden-based carpetbagger though. It also depends if the Lib Dems stand, since they probably helped the Greens in the last couple of elections, albeit inconsequentially. 

Isn’t Brighton pretty much full of Camden-based carpetbaggers though, so not sure if this will be as much of a negative as it would be in a more provincial area.

Say if Bristol (West) was the only Green seat, rather than Brighton, and the incumbent stood down there then I can imagine a London based candidate may not go down as well, but even then there is probably less animosity to London than in the north - speaking of nearby Frome, which apparently is growing as a London commuter town. 

A rather tall stretch there given that it takes approximately 2 hours to get from Frome to London by train. Then again, many of those moving to Frome will either be retired or working from home the majority of the time.