graham
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Post by graham on May 31, 2023 19:14:02 GMT
The 2022 results in Wimbledon were good for the LDs in terms of seats gained - but hardly spectacular in terms of vote share which was no higher than at the 2019 GE. Given the general tendency for Local Elections to flatter them , I remain sceptical re- LD prospects here.
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Post by olympian95 on Jun 1, 2023 9:58:49 GMT
It will be by no means a slam dunk for them but it does cement their message that they are the best option to beat the Cons in Wimbledon (plus more resources from cllr tithes etc)
Be interesting to see if Hammond re-stands - I suspect he won't and that again will be a boost for the LDs
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 1, 2023 11:01:43 GMT
MRP surveys showing Labour polling strongly here will not be helpful to the LDs. Doubtless Labour will use such data to deter tactical voting.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 1, 2023 15:19:41 GMT
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Post by olympian95 on Jun 1, 2023 15:30:38 GMT
I think we will see some Tory MPs, even those who have been re-selected, standing down between now and the election.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 1, 2023 15:45:16 GMT
I think we will see some Tory MPs, even those who have been re-selected, standing down between now and the election. That didn’t happen as much as it was expected to in 1997 though from what I’ve heard? We probably overestimate the fear or embarrassment of losing that a lot of MPs have, some will be happy to see it out to the end even if defeat looks inevitable |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 1, 2023 15:45:49 GMT
I think we will see some Tory MPs, even those who have been re-selected, standing down between now and the election. There are nearly always MPs of all parties who are re selected and then stand down. I would bet that there will be some Labour ones too. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 1, 2023 16:46:12 GMT
We probably overestimate the fear or embarrassment of losing that a lot of MPs have, some will be happy to see it out to the end even if defeat looks inevitable Most (there are exceptions and I'm sure we can all think of quite a few) accept that electoral defeat is an occupational hazard and don't seem to regard it as embarrassing, which is probably healthy. There's also definitely a type that like the idea of going down with the ship. |
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Post by anthony on Jun 1, 2023 16:49:27 GMT
They made some advances in 2018 but the major advance was in 2022. Prior to 2018 they had only occasionally won seats in West Barnes (not necessarily one of their better wards in general elections). The Lib dem weakness here was always quite striking in comparison with the the boroughs to the south and west. I remember even as far back as 1987 Wimbledon was talked up as a vague Alliance target (Adrian Slade was the candidate) and they had no councillors at all at that time. And circa 30% in the GE share of the vote at that election. The Lib Dem local election results in 2018 (6 seats across 3 wards) were at that point the best result ever for the LDs at a local election in Merton. The June 2019 by-election was the first by-election gain from Labour in London in a decade. 2022 was the best ever results for Lib Dems in Merton - the current Wimbledon constituency comprises 17 Lib Dems, 6 Conservatives, 2 Labour and 2 Merton Park Residents Association. The proposed boundaries for the successor seat, Wimbledon and Coombe, comprise 20 Lib Dems, 8 Conservatives and 2 Labour councillors. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 7, 2023 17:07:36 GMT
Focal Data MRP survey on new boundaries has - Lab 29.1% Con 26.7% LD 23.8 % Grn 2.9% Ref 3.6 % Oth 1% Dont Know 12.9%.
Not sure I believe it , but useful for Labour leaflets.
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Post by anthony on Jun 8, 2023 9:54:29 GMT
Focal Data MRP survey on new boundaries has - Lab 29.1% Con 26.7% LD 23.8 % Grn 2.9% Ref 3.6 % Oth 1% Dont Know 12.9%. Not sure I believe it , but useful for Labour leaflets. It also had Labour winning Carshalton and LD's on 7% nationally - which is almost half of current opinion polls. I agree, useful to Labour for muddying the water - but given Labour aren't currently delivering across the constituency will be interested in how much cut through it would have. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 9, 2023 7:46:52 GMT
Focal Data MRP survey on new boundaries has - Lab 29.1% Con 26.7% LD 23.8 % Grn 2.9% Ref 3.6 % Oth 1% Dont Know 12.9%. Not sure I believe it , but useful for Labour leaflets. It also had Labour winning Carshalton and LD's on 7% nationally - which is almost half of current opinion polls. I agree, useful to Labour for muddying the water - but given Labour aren't currently delivering across the constituency will be interested in how much cut through it would have. Presuming the LDs win - who do you think will come second? |
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Post by anthony on Jun 12, 2023 17:24:42 GMT
Presuming the LDs win - who do you think will come second? From canvassing it's very much between the LDs and the Conservatives. |
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