Stirling

[Admin Twaddleford]

Stirling

[IceAgeComing]

In the last election Bruce Crawford won the seat with 47% of the vote and a majority of 6,718 (19.7%) so it'd need the best part of a 10% swing from the SNP to the Tories for a change here. The Conservatives got 28%; Labour 20% and the Lib Dems failed to retain their deposit. The closest Westminster equivalent seat shockingly is Stirling; with the Tories winning it by 176 votes (0.3%) in 2017 but the SNP gained it back by 9,524 votes (17.6%); with the SNP vote share increase of 14.4% being the largest SNP share increase in the country.

As much as you can predict things at the moment in the middle of lockdown; I'm pretty sure the SNP will hold this. The Scottish Parliament boundaries are friendlier for them since the main difference is that Bridge of Allan and Dunblane are shunted into the Clacks seat and that's an area that leans Tory; I don't sense that Bruce Crawford is very unpopular is the wider community and current polling is in their favour. The Tories have a strong organisation here and so will try to win the seat (and the advantage for them is that if they fail then they may well gain some extra list votes) but at this point it seems rather unlikely. There is a 20% Labour vote that will be squeezed but in the 2019 election there seemed to be evidence of that vote mostly helping the SNP (Labour down 14%, SNP up 14% while the Tories were slightly down) so I don't think that's something that you can point to as being something to help them.

One thing I feel comfortable predicting is that Stirling will likely have one of the higher turnouts in the country: for whatever reason (it might be the fact that for most of its history its been a competitive seat, if not always marginal) Stirling always has one of the highest turnouts in Scotland in elections.

[bjornhattan]

Bruce Crawford (which is quite an excellent Scottish name) has announced he'll be stepping down at the next election, so his personal vote will not have an impact here. I doubt that'll affect the outcome, but might make it ever so slightly more marginal than it otherwise could have been.

[robbienicoll]

SNP selection candidates (AWS):

Ellen Forson (Clackmannanshire South councillor on Clackmannanshire Council since 2012, council leader, Local Government Convener on the NEC)
Susan McGill (Stirling North councillor on Stirling Council since 2017, background in health)
Evelyn Tweed (Trossachs and Teith councillor on Stirling Council since 2017, background in housing)
Mridul Wadhwa (see Edinburgh Central entry)
Sameeha Rehman (unsuccessfully sought the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill nomination in 2019, works as a Parliamentary Assistant to Stephen Bonnar who won that seat, director of the Glasgow ESOL Forum, younger than me)
Rosemary Hunter (candidate for Dunblane and Bridge of Allan for Stirling Council in 2017, one of the founders of the Snowdrop Campaign following the Dunblane shootings)
Moraig Henderson (see Caithness, Sutherland and Ross entry)

[andrea]

Oct 14, 2020 17:32:40 GMT robbienicoll said:

SNP selection candidates (AWS):

Ellen Forson (Clackmannanshire South councillor on Clackmannanshire Council since 2012, council leader, Local Government Convener on the NEC)
Susan McGill (Stirling North councillor on Stirling Council since 2017, background in health)
Evelyn Tweed (Trossachs and Teith councillor on Stirling Council since 2017, background in housing)
Mridul Wadhwa (see Edinburgh Central entry)
Sameeha Rehman (unsuccessfully sought the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill nomination in 2019, works as a Parliamentary Assistant to Stephen Bonnar who won that seat, director of the Glasgow ESOL Forum, younger than me)
Rosemary Hunter (candidate for Dunblane and Bridge of Allan for Stirling Council in 2017, one of the founders of the Snowdrop Campaign following the Dunblane shootings)
Moraig Henderson (see Caithness, Sutherland and Ross entry)

Evelyn Tweed is the SNP candidate