Eastleigh and Perth can both be compared with the Littleborough and Saddleworth byelection from the same era. With that one Labour really *did* think they had a chance of winning from a poor third place, campaigned accordingly (including what some saw as "sharp practice") and of course weren't so far from actually doing so.
Last Edit: Aug 23, 2020 11:49:05 GMT by The Bishop
"The New Labour 'project' was finished by the 2005 election: its creative energies were exhausted and its failures increasingly apparent"
If there are Tory constituency gains at the next Scottish election they will come north of the Tay in the old Grampian region. Beyond that they are likely to be fighting a defensive battle.
I’m struck by the remark Cunninghame makes about the Scotland of 1995 being more similar to that of 1965 than today. That rings true and particularly in relation to rural Scotland, which was a lot more socially conservative, church-going and even hierarchical/deferential than it is today. The area that has perhaps changed the least is the rural North East, which possibly explains recent Tory successes.
Hasn't the oil industry attracted English people to move to the North East of Scotland? It might partly explain the Tory revival in Aberdeenshire. Obviously in Banff and Moray you have a stronger Leave vote than in Scotland as a whole.