Perthshire South and Kinross-shire

[Admin Twaddleford]

Perthshire South and Kinross-shire

[Deleted]

This seat drives me crackers. We almost took it last time. We won the regional vote in it last time. The boundaries are almost perfect. Republican Rose is a notoriously poor campaigner.

Throw the kitchen sink at it this time.

[finsobruce]

Mar 15, 2020 13:04:59 GMT Sandy said:

This seat drives me crackers. We almost took it last time. We won the regional vote in it last time. The boundaries are almost perfect. Republican Rose is a notoriously poor campaigner.

Throw the kitchen sink at it this time.

she can't be that poor a campaigner if she manages to hang on.

[Deleted]

Mar 15, 2020 13:12:22 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 15, 2020 13:04:59 GMT Sandy said:

This seat drives me crackers. We almost took it last time. We won the regional vote in it last time. The boundaries are almost perfect. Republican Rose is a notoriously poor campaigner.

Throw the kitchen sink at it this time.

she can't be that poor a campaigner if she manages to hang on.

She always performs poorly relative to the rest of the country considering she is a well known SNP figure and has represented the area since 1995. She should be an easy target and we keep falling frustratingly short here.

[yellowfox]

This is certainly *the* top tory target - polling right now just doesn't suggest that they'll make gains though

[robbienicoll]

Roseanna Cunningham standing down here.

[jollyroger93]

Aug 22, 2020 12:07:29 GMT robbienicoll said:

Roseanna Cunningham standing down here.

Roseanna always had a personal vote here ever since she took Perth back in 95 with her standing down this is all to play for

[Sandy]

Aug 22, 2020 13:13:26 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Aug 22, 2020 12:07:29 GMT robbienicoll said:

Roseanna Cunningham standing down here.

Roseanna always had a personal vote here ever since she took Perth back in 95 with her standing down this is all to play for

No. She is a drag on the SNP vote. Chalk this up in the SNP Hold column.

[chrisscot1988]

Can't see the Tories taking this or the other Perthshire seat, especially with the same perennially electorally unsuccessful candidates.

[David]

Cunningham was held back by a number of things, one of them being her homophobic views. With her gone those separatist minded folks who couldn't vote for her can now vote SNP. The only Tayside seat I think we have a chance in, if we have a reasonably successful night, is Angus North and Mearns.

[LDCaerdydd]

Statement:

[drw]

If there are Tory constituency gains at the next Scottish election they will come north of the Tay in the old Grampian region. Beyond that they are likely to be fighting a defensive battle.

I’m struck by the remark Cunninghame makes about the Scotland of 1995 being more similar to that of 1965 than today. That rings true and particularly in relation to rural Scotland, which was a lot more socially conservative, church-going and even hierarchical/deferential than it is today. The area that has perhaps changed the least is the rural North East, which possibly explains recent Tory successes.

[Benjamin]

Aug 22, 2020 16:17:34 GMT drw said:

If there are Tory constituency gains at the next Scottish election they will come north of the Tay in the old Grampian region. Beyond that they are likely to be fighting a defensive battle.

I’m struck by the remark Cunninghame makes about the Scotland of 1995 being more similar to that of 1965 than today. That rings true and particularly in relation to rural Scotland, which was a lot more socially conservative, church-going and even hierarchical/deferential than it is today. The area that has perhaps changed the least is the rural North East, which possibly explains recent Tory successes.

You could probably argue this more broadly in many ways. According to figures available via Statistia, only 27% of households had a computer and only 16% had a mobile phone in 1996, and only 9% had Internet access in 1998. Whilst I haven't paid to verify the source of this, it sounds reasonable enough. And as someone who did have Internet access at home in 1998, it often took about ten connection attempts, and if you did finally get online -- middle of the night was best -- it was extremely slow, involved premium rate telephone charges, and there wasn't much of interest for a general audience on there anyway.

Even though these technologies notionally existed, 1995 was still for most people in Europe largely a world of terrestrial television, analogue radio, land-line telephones, and printed newspapers.

[Sandy]

Worth noting that Douglas Alexander was Republican Rose's Labour opponent in the 1995 by election.....I believe Labour vainly threw the kitchen sink at the seat, resulting only in a poor second place which they could not even hold onto in the 1997 landslide. Perth has of course never elected a Labour MP.

[David Boothroyd]

This was a seat where Labour had not exceeded 20% since the days of two-cornered fights in the 1950s, and rarely saved its deposit since the landslide election of 1966. To come second and to outpoll the Conservatives, even when tactical anti-Tory voters (of whom there were a lot in Scotland in the 1990s) would be voting SNP, was a major Labour achievement. Labour has never since then outpolled the Conservatives in this seat. So much for the 1995 byelection being a weak Labour performance - it was by any measure the strongest Labour performance ever in this seat.

[The Bishop]

Thank you for saying what I was minded to, David. Labour never seriously believed they could actually win, but always thought second place *was* achievable - and got it.

[Sandy]

It’s always you two isn’t it?

Thank you for that speal which I didn’t read Dave. Labour were desperate to get Alexander elected to Parliament and threw the kitchen sink at the seat, leading to some mockery from Screaming Lord Sutch IIRC.

[The Bishop]

Again, I was around at the time and following events.

Labour actually made a point of never claiming they could win, despite the spin some of their opponents and media put on it.

It was obvious to a reasonably intelligent eight year old that the SNP were always going to be runaway favourites.

[Sandy]

Aug 23, 2020 10:00:09 GMT The Bishop said:

Again, I was around at the time and following events.

Labour actually made a point of never claiming they could win, despite the spin some of their opponents and media put on it.

It was obvious to a reasonably intelligent eight year old that the SNP were always going to be runaway favourites.

Not all of your party have the intelligence of eight year olds. FWIW I think you’re just being ultra partisan and defensive, which constitutes 90% of your posts these days.

[alien8ted]

Seats change, always worth putting effort in, you never know when your lying a foundation for future success.