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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 13, 2020 22:05:26 GMT
Edinburgh Southern
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 23:20:08 GMT
The various incarnations of Edinburgh South really frustrate me. They really should be Tory seats. I long for an SNP Gain to break the seat out of the Labour tactical voting rut it has become stuck in. Then we can come in and hoover up the anti SNP vote next time around.
Pretty please SNP?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 17, 2020 12:10:07 GMT
The various incarnations of Edinburgh South really frustrate me. They really should be Tory seats. I long for an SNP Gain to break the seat out of the Labour tactical voting rut it has become stuck in. Then we can come in and hoover up the anti SNP vote next time around. Pretty please SNP? The seat was an SNP gain in 2011, but went back to Labour again last time. Don't see the SNP getting it back anytime soon... That said, at this stage predictions for next year are even more foolish than usual a year in advance... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 17, 2020 12:11:35 GMT
The view Edinburgh S (in whatever version) "should" be a Tory seat has to deal with the reality it last *actually* voted for them in 1983.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 12:18:53 GMT
The view Edinburgh S (in whatever version) "should" be a Tory seat has to deal with the reality it last *actually* voted for them in 1983. Regional list vote 2016? Local elections 2017? Probably other elections, but I'm busy right now. There is a deeply suppressed Conservative vote here just waiting to be tapped. |
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Post by Benjamin on Mar 17, 2020 19:57:42 GMT
The view Edinburgh S (in whatever version) "should" be a Tory seat has to deal with the reality it last *actually* voted for them in 1983. Local elections 2017? Probably other elections, but I'm busy right now. There is a deeply suppressed Conservative vote here just waiting to be tapped. 29% in the context of the Greens getting 17%, though an intervention from the latter potentially could deliver a result similar to Edinburgh Central. There may, however, be a legitimate question for the Conservatives: do they actually want to focus on appealing to the kind of voters that they'd need to win over in this seat? |
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Post by yellowfox on Jun 22, 2020 22:12:58 GMT
This seat could be interesting - the size of the Labour majority *over the tories* means that the tories tactically voting labour theory said to have saved Ian Murray (Edin South was briefly spoke of as a tory possibility in 2017 remember) may not so obviously apply...
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 23, 2020 10:21:35 GMT
This seat could be interesting - the size of the Labour majority *over the tories* means that the tories tactically voting labour theory said to have saved Ian Murray (Edin South was briefly spoke of as a tory possibility in 2017 remember) may not so obviously apply... To say that Murray's 22% majority is down to Tory tactical voting is just nonsense. Murray is a very good fit for the constituency and works it very hard, he's captured a lot of the unionist vote on his own merits and without any tactical voting would have been comfortably safe. Daniel Johnson is in a similar mould, but has a much lower profile. Countering that a Starmer-led Labour party is probably more attractive here than a Corbyn-led one. |
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Post by yellowfox on Jun 23, 2020 13:32:37 GMT
Of course Murray's majority i not solely due to tactical voting but the fact remains that the tories have consistently underperformed here at Westminster elections. Dan Johnson is a politician I rate, but evidently does not have Murray's profile and the tories were clearly leading here at the 2017 locals (and won the list vote here in 2016 when polling at a level lower than currently) so the seat is far from a foregone conclusion like South is, being perhaps the last true three-way marginal in Scotland, along with East Lothian i suppose
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Jun 23, 2020 16:07:58 GMT
This seat could be interesting - the size of the Labour majority *over the tories* means that the tories tactically voting labour theory said to have saved Ian Murray (Edin South was briefly spoke of as a tory possibility in 2017 remember) may not so obviously apply... To say that Murray's 22% majority is down to Tory tactical voting is just nonsense. Murray is a very good fit for the constituency and works it very hard, he's captured a lot of the unionist vote on his own merits and without any tactical voting would have been comfortably safe. Daniel Johnson is in a similar mould, but has a much lower profile. Countering that a Starmer-led Labour party is probably more attractive here than a Corbyn-led one. I think all the people I know in Scotland who still consider themselves 'Blairites' (not a high number, admittedly - low single figures, in fact) actually live in this constituency. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2020 16:39:34 GMT
Murray also singlehandedly saving Hearts probably has made him a folk legend
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 23, 2020 20:36:12 GMT
Murray also singlehandedly saving Hearts probably has made him a folk legend Only for half of Edinburgh  |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 23, 2020 20:39:22 GMT
To say that Murray's 22% majority is down to Tory tactical voting is just nonsense. Murray is a very good fit for the constituency and works it very hard, he's captured a lot of the unionist vote on his own merits and without any tactical voting would have been comfortably safe. Daniel Johnson is in a similar mould, but has a much lower profile. Countering that a Starmer-led Labour party is probably more attractive here than a Corbyn-led one. I think all the people I know in Scotland who still consider themselves 'Blairites' (not a high number, admittedly - low single figures, in fact) actually live in this constituency. The other side of the equation is that a Cameron-Davidson Conservative party was also probably a much better fit here than a Johnson-Carlaw one. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2020 21:33:49 GMT
Murray also singlehandedly saving Hearts probably has made him a folk legend Only for half of Edinburgh I thought that was coming. Tbf he only needs half |
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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 23, 2020 23:18:27 GMT
The other issue with that "if the SNP win then the Tories will rise to win the seat" thing is that it relies on an assumption that a majority of Labour voters would elect to back the Tories over the SNP. While there are almost certainly tactical Labour votes here that would go Tory and this is the sort of seat where Labour voters may well prefer the Tories over the SNP you'd need a lot of them to win the seat and none of the electoral evidence suggests strong enough Conservative support to cover for that. The list vote is silly to point to - sure the Tories finished top but realistically how much of the 16% that voted for the Greens is going to back their constituency candidate and at 29% it would take Edinburgh Central level luck (three way race, prominent well liked candidate, the Greens standing and getting a lot of votes etc) for the Tories to have a chance here unless they are doing a lot better across Scotland than people think.
Bit of an academic discussion really: Labour will hold this.
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jun 24, 2020 12:08:44 GMT
Instead of wasting resources in Edinburgh, a better idea for the Tories is to make a play for Aberdeenshire East, Angus North & Mearns, Banffshire, and Moray.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 24, 2020 13:32:03 GMT
Instead of wasting resources in Edinburgh, a better idea for the Tories is to make a play for Aberdeenshire East, Angus North & Mearns, Banffshire, and Moray. This is spot on. I would expect the Tories to gain a couple of these seats even if they go backwards nationally. If they can’t even manage that, they’re in for a pretty disappointing election. |
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bore
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Post by bore on Jun 26, 2020 12:54:05 GMT
Arguing that this seat is naturally conservative and would be in england or without labour having got here first rather falls down on the fact that no other comparable seats (anchored by a large university, more than 75% remain) are remotely close for them.
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Post by Benjamin on Jun 26, 2020 17:17:16 GMT
Arguing that this seat is naturally conservative and would be in england or without labour having got here first rather falls down on the fact that no other comparable seats (anchored by a large university, more than 75% remain) are remotely close for them. Even if we take into account that the base vote for Remain was higher in Scotland, it's exactly the sort of area that, if Scotland voted like England, would still have swung away from the Conservatives since the 1980s, and quite likely more so in 2017. Birmingham Edgbaston strikes me as a vaguely comparable seat, at least as someone highly familiar with both. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jun 27, 2020 12:39:56 GMT
If you want to know how this seat would vote if it were in England, look at results in Manchester, Withington and Norwich South.
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