andrea
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Post by andrea on Nov 6, 2020 18:40:11 GMT
it is reported that Robertson won SNP selection
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 7, 2020 16:14:28 GMT
it is reported that Robertson won SNP selection SNP gain. |
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jollyroger93
Forum Regular
One Nation
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 7, 2020 16:28:40 GMT
it is reported that Robertson won SNP selection SNP gain. I wouldn’t be so sure. |
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Post by greyfriar on Nov 7, 2020 18:43:08 GMT
it is reported that Robertson won SNP selection SNP head office gain. FTFY |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Nov 26, 2020 21:52:40 GMT
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Post by philipgraves on Nov 27, 2020 17:06:18 GMT
This is the only constituency seat that the SNP is certain to gain IMO. I think the most likely result is the SNP 63 Grn 6 again if Nicola Sturgeon fights the election on independence and not on covid etc. The SNP and greens have an outside chance of losing their majority if they lose Ross Greer's seat, lose Cowdenbeath and Rutherglen to Labour, lose a few seats like Perthshire south to the Tories and Caithness to the LDs. The savantacomres and survation polling is much less rosy for the SNP and the Labour list vote is holding up at 18% with them. Of course I'm 90% sure regardless there won't be a referendum between now and 2024 as there is no upside to the Tories whatsoever as opposed to 50% upside chance for Labour. |
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David
Scottish Conservative
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Post by David on Dec 4, 2020 17:18:11 GMT
Murrayfield councillor Scott Douglas selected for us here.
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boogieeck
Scottish Whig
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Post by boogieeck on Dec 4, 2020 20:45:42 GMT
He can write his concession speech now. Second will be a result worthy of praise.
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jollyroger93
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 4, 2020 21:54:59 GMT
Central will be extremely hard to hold, but you never know, 4 way marginal? Maybe even 5 at a push.
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David
Scottish Conservative
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Post by David on Dec 4, 2020 22:03:15 GMT
boogieeck said it in a jesty way, but I genuinely think second or a nail bitingly close third should be our goal here. I've said it before, but we should ensconce ourselves firmly in winnable constituency seats, hold most of the constituencies we have and to get at least two or three seats on every list. That should cement second place and allow us to develop further under Douglas in the next parliament.
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boogieeck
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Post by boogieeck on Dec 4, 2020 22:17:53 GMT
If it was legal the Tory party should make their list
those who came 2nd in the following order
those who came 3rd, in the following order
etc.
Actually, it would not be a bad idea if the Scottish Parliament imposed that of all parties leaving only those parties who ignored constituencies to choose their regional listings without that caveat.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 4, 2020 23:04:03 GMT
If it was legal the Tory party should make their list those who came 2nd in the following order those who came 3rd, in the following order etc. Actually, it would not be a bad idea if the Scottish Parliament imposed that of all parties leaving only those parties who ignored constituencies to choose their regional listings without that caveat. isn't that the "Baden Wurttemberg" method, where the "best losers" are taken from the lists? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 5, 2020 6:01:57 GMT
If it was legal the Tory party should make their list those who came 2nd in the following order those who came 3rd, in the following order etc. Actually, it would not be a bad idea if the Scottish Parliament imposed that of all parties leaving only those parties who ignored constituencies to choose their regional listings without that caveat. isn't that the "Baden Wurttemberg" method, where the "best losers" are taken from the lists? The second thing Boogs proposes (ignoring constituencies) isn't possible in BaWü because there are no lists. His first suggestion isn't quite the same as how the world's all-time greatest electoral system works, but it'd be getting there. |
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Post by flagman on Dec 5, 2020 8:04:53 GMT
This is the only constituency seat that the SNP is certain to gain IMO. I think the most likely result is the SNP 63 Grn 6 again if Nicola Sturgeon fights the election on independence and not on covid etc. The SNP and greens have an outside chance of losing their majority if they lose Ross Greer's seat, lose Cowdenbeath and Rutherglen to Labour, lose a few seats like Perthshire south to the Tories and Caithness to the LDs. The savantacomres and survation polling is much less rosy for the SNP and the Labour list vote is holding up at 18% with them. Of course I'm 90% sure regardless there won't be a referendum between now and 2024 as there is no upside to the Tories whatsoever as opposed to 50% upside chance for Labour. Is there any chance at all that SNP/ Greens could lose their majority at Holyrood Election, which would kick the Referendum maybe not into the long grass but at least delay for a few years. ? Any banana skins for Sturgeon before Election, could Johnson offer Scotland something to blunt the SNP ? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Dec 6, 2020 0:41:42 GMT
This is the only constituency seat that the SNP is certain to gain IMO. I think the most likely result is the SNP 63 Grn 6 again if Nicola Sturgeon fights the election on independence and not on covid etc. The SNP and greens have an outside chance of losing their majority if they lose Ross Greer's seat, lose Cowdenbeath and Rutherglen to Labour, lose a few seats like Perthshire south to the Tories and Caithness to the LDs. The savantacomres and survation polling is much less rosy for the SNP and the Labour list vote is holding up at 18% with them. Of course I'm 90% sure regardless there won't be a referendum between now and 2024 as there is no upside to the Tories whatsoever as opposed to 50% upside chance for Labour. Is there any chance at all that SNP/ Greens could lose their majority at Holyrood Election, which would kick the Referendum maybe not into the long grass but at least delay for a few years. ? Any banana skins for Sturgeon before Election, could Johnson offer Scotland something to blunt the SNP ? Sadly I don’t see any chance of that happening. The Conservatives are liable to lose votes because of the departure of their only real asset: Ruth Davidson. The Scottish Labour Party are quite capable of cocking things up without any outside influence. The Liberal Democrats are being the Liberal Democrats. Despite the SNP appearing to go out of their way to piss off the electorate and despite the Scottish Greens being the most accommodating to the point of sycophancy every SNP policy, they will be returned in a landslide. |
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