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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 13, 2020 22:03:41 GMT
Edinburgh Central
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 14, 2020 3:10:52 GMT
A lot can change between now and this election, so perhaps a little early to make any predictions. But this contest will certainly be worth a look. Joanna Cherry and Angus Robertson both seem to be going for the SNP nomination.
Ruth Davidson has a tiny minority and Edinburgh seems to be moving against the Tories, at least going off the general election. However, she will presumably have a strong personal vote, and she embodies the kind of liberal Conservative who can still appeal to the wealthy urbanites who form much of the electorate here.
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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 14, 2020 7:57:27 GMT
A lot can change between now and this election, so perhaps a little early to make any predictions. But this contest will certainly be worth a look. Joanna Cherry and Angus Robertson both seem to be going for the SNP nomination. Ruth Davidson has a tiny minority and Edinburgh seems to be moving against the Tories, at least going off the general election. However, she will presumably have a strong personal vote, and she embodies the kind of liberal Conservative who can still appeal to the wealthy urbanites who form much of the electorate here. Sadly, she's standing down. www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ruth-davidson-reveals-not-stand-20939026 |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Mar 14, 2020 9:23:04 GMT
Sad to see Ruth go.
In an alternate universe she could have been Tory leader.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 14, 2020 10:32:54 GMT
That "alternate universe" would surely have to mean her getting involved in Westminster rather than Holyrood politics though.
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jollyroger93
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 14, 2020 11:01:04 GMT
A lot can change between now and this election, so perhaps a little early to make any predictions. But this contest will certainly be worth a look. Joanna Cherry and Angus Robertson both seem to be going for the SNP nomination. Ruth Davidson has a tiny minority and Edinburgh seems to be moving against the Tories, at least going off the general election. However, she will presumably have a strong personal vote, and she embodies the kind of liberal Conservative who can still appeal to the wealthy urbanites who form much of the electorate here. Hhmmm I’m not sure if Edinburgh is moving away from the Tories rather than a lot of centre to centre right, voters who backers remain left us for the Lib Dem’s,I think the battering we took in the capital was more to do with the brexit election rather than a distain for our party. |
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David
Scottish Conservative
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Post by David on Mar 14, 2020 15:17:29 GMT
The constituency I live in, I wouldn't completely rule out a Conservative hold tbh. The pro independence, pro Remain vote, with the SNP, Lib Dems and Greens all having a presence, is split and anyone that supports the union as the paramount issue, or who supports Brexit, has only one place to go.
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greenhert
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Post by greenhert on Mar 14, 2020 15:51:54 GMT
Sad to see Ruth go. In an alternate universe she could have been Tory leader. Judging by opinion polls during Theresa May's tenure, many Conservatives wished she was. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Mar 14, 2020 15:58:17 GMT
Sad to see Ruth go. In an alternate universe she could have been Tory leader. Judging by opinion polls during Theresa May's tenure, many Conservatives wished she was. Ruth may have had a hard time winning a leadership election in such a pro-Brexit environment. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2020 22:07:14 GMT
I think we will probably lose this seat tbh. Heavily Unionist, but heavily remain. Not a complete write off, but without Ruth Davidson it will be an uphill battle. Best hope is the Greens standing a constituency candidate and siphoning votes away from the SNP again.
I also think this is quite a Lib Demmy constituency so any sort of recovery could wreak havoc with our vote share.
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Post by IceAgeComing on May 21, 2020 10:09:36 GMT
Thing you have to remember about this seat is that the Tories won it with a very small vote share (30.4%) due to how the other parties split up the vote (SNP got 28.6%, Labour got 22.1%, Greens 13.6%) and so any fall in the Tory vote will lose them the seat and I don't see them increasing their vote share on the last election without Ruth Davidson as candidate. If the Greens don't stand the SNP will gain this seat since they will get the bulk of that vote (but I'm pretty sure the Greens will contest again), and there's a 22% Labour vote that will be squeezed and while we don't have any reliable patterns for Edinburgh Central in particular and the generally poor Tory performance in Edinburgh as a whole makes it hard to identify any real trend there in particular it didn't disprove the Scotland-wide trend from the last General Election that any squeeze in the Labour vote seems to benefit the SNP more than the Tories; which really shouldn't be that surprising. It was a bit of a freak result in the last election and without Ruth Davidson's undoubted personal vote and assuming nothing major changes politically its a hard one for the Tories to win.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 21, 2020 20:23:31 GMT
Thing you have to remember about this seat is that the Tories won it with a very small vote share (30.4%) due to how the other parties split up the vote (SNP got 28.6%, Labour got 22.1%, Greens 13.6%) and so any fall in the Tory vote will lose them the seat and I don't see them increasing their vote share on the last election without Ruth Davidson as candidate. If the Greens don't stand the SNP will gain this seat since they will get the bulk of that vote (but I'm pretty sure the Greens will contest again), and there's a 22% Labour vote that will be squeezed and while we don't have any reliable patterns for Edinburgh Central in particular and the generally poor Tory performance in Edinburgh as a whole makes it hard to identify any real trend there in particular it didn't disprove the Scotland-wide trend from the last General Election that any squeeze in the Labour vote seems to benefit the SNP more than the Tories; which really shouldn't be that surprising. It was a bit of a freak result in the last election and without Ruth Davidson's undoubted personal vote and assuming nothing major changes politically its a hard one for the Tories to win. Whilst I'd largely agree with this analysis - one word of caution I'd add is that a squeeze on the Labour vote may not necessarily work the same way at a Holyrood election as at a Westminster one... Edinburgh Central is quite a politically savvy electorate and voting patterns from Westminster to Holyrood may differ somewhat. That said, I'd struggle to see the Conservatives holding this without Davidson, but then again next May is a long way away... |
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Post by IceAgeComing on May 21, 2020 21:58:29 GMT
That's all true but in a situation where we don't have any comparable historical data I always feel more comfortable using real election results from a different level of government over hunches and assumptions, especially one with a decent turnout level. Also true to say that we haven't a clue where we'll be in May 2021; a lot could change.
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Post by edgbaston on May 22, 2020 3:49:48 GMT
“ Since 1999, the constituency MSP has been an ex officio member of the Board of Trustees of the National Library of Scotland. From 1925 until 1999, that role had been taken by the Member of Parliament (MP) for the Westminster constituency.”
Are there any other examples of this sort of thing that make representing a certain constituency particularly auspicious?
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Post by yellowfox on Jun 22, 2020 22:00:05 GMT
If i may interject, wouldn't it be true that the Lab->SNP swing voters of 2019 mean that regardless of the fortunes of the tories and greens that the SNP are in poll position?
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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 23, 2020 23:10:16 GMT
If that swing is replicated in 2019 yes; but that's still very much an open question and the Scottish electorate has historically done different things in Westminster elections and Holyrood elections - and indeed between the two votes in Holyrood elections. My wider point was that all of the special factors in this seat seem to be things that should benefit the SNP over the Tories which makes the chance of a Conservative hold here a lot less likely, even if they end up advancing in Scotland.
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Post by agbutler on Jul 26, 2020 14:05:22 GMT
Angus Robertson officially launched his campaign today. It's pissed a lot of Cherryites on Twitter off.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 26, 2020 14:26:24 GMT
Angus Robertson officially launched his campaign today. It's pissed a lot of Cherryites on Twitter off. And, in itself, winning Edinburgh Central doesn't help "secure a pro-Independence majority". Other things being equal, the Tories loss of Edinburgh Central would be compensated by an extra list seat, at the expense of the pro-independence Greens. |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jul 26, 2020 17:15:46 GMT
Angus Robertson officially launched his campaign today. It's pissed a lot of Cherryites on Twitter off. Carpetbagger. |
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MacShimidh
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 26, 2020 18:03:36 GMT
Angus Robertson officially launched his campaign today. It's pissed a lot of Cherryites on Twitter off. Carpetbagger. Robertson was in fact raised and educated in Edinburgh, so this isn't really carpetbagging in the traditional sense. |
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