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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 13, 2020 22:03:14 GMT
Eastwood
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Mar 19, 2020 10:57:58 GMT
Assuming that Ken Macintosh retires I wonder what distribution his personal vote vs a generic Labour candidate will have on what becomes an SNP vs Con contest?
Jackson Carlaw will also have an increased profile so I suspect he will hold on here although presumably he will also be no 1 on the West of Scotland list as a backup.
Labour only have 2 councillors in the area represented by the constituency - Alan Lafferty and Jim Fletcher. I'm not convinced either of them have ambitions towards parliament so an open seat for any young west of Scotland Labour types looking for an unwinnable seat to fight.
Cllr Paul O'Kane technically also represents Newton Mearns and probably still has parliamentary ambitions but his powerbase is much more focussed in Neilston which is located in Renfrewshire South and where he was the constituency candidate last time and I would expect him to run there again and hope for a high list placing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 13:55:30 GMT
Assuming that Ken Macintosh retires I wonder what distribution his personal vote vs a generic Labour candidate will have on what becomes an SNP vs Con contest? Jackson Carlaw will also have an increased profile so I suspect he will hold on here although presumably he will also be no 1 on the West of Scotland list as a backup. Labour only have 2 councillors in the area represented by the constituency - Alan Lafferty and Jim Fletcher. I'm not convinced either of them have ambitions towards parliament so an open seat for any young west of Scotland Labour types looking for an unwinnable seat to fight. Cllr Paul O'Kane technically also represents Newton Mearns and probably still has parliamentary ambitions but his powerbase is much more focussed in Neilston which is located in Renfrewshire South and where he was the constituency candidate last time and I would expect him to run there again and hope for a high list placing. I’m not worried about Carlaw, and think I’m being cautious with my predictions this time. |
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Eastwood
Mar 26, 2020 11:11:11 GMT
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Post by chrisscot1988 on Mar 26, 2020 11:11:11 GMT
Very easy and comfortable SNP gain here going by 2019 result as Labour vote in places like Giffnock will go Nat en masse to get the Tory out. Oswald rumoured to be considering a move north.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2020 10:35:08 GMT
Very easy and comfortable SNP gain here going by 2019 result as Labour vote in places like Giffnock will go Nat en masse to get the Tory out. Oswald rumoured to be considering a move north. Rubbish. Supposing this is an SNP Gain, it certainly won't be easy and comfortable. These boundaries don't get much better for the Conservatives. |
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Eastwood
Mar 29, 2020 9:09:17 GMT
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Post by chrisscot1988 on Mar 29, 2020 9:09:17 GMT
The demographics in Eastwood are changing rapidly with the new housing and turnover in places like Clarkston and Netherlee.
If Labour can't hold on to its vote (and there's no reason to expect it will do anything but plummet) it will split primarily to the SNP, not the Tories. The polling out today confirms that is still the case.
Getting 60% of the vote in the Mearns isn't enough to carry you over the line when the Nats are now getting 30% instead of the 20% they had in 2016 and 2017.
All the signals are that as in 2019 the Tories vote will largely stand still but in seats they can only win when the 3 way split falls the right way, the collapse of Labour leads to SNP gains.
I just can't see the Tories holding here unless there is a major Labour recovery nationally under new leadership.
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Post by conservativeestimate on Mar 29, 2020 16:54:00 GMT
The Tories have a ceiling of around 40% here. You see this in the list vote where they got 39% in 2016.
SNP gain.
Aberdeenshire West; Dumfriesshire; Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire and Galloway & West Dumfries may be the only Tory wins.
They will put in strong second places in Aberdeenshire East; Angus North & Mearns; Banffshire and Moray like last time.
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire could surprise and be a Tory gain, but it won't be.
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Post by yellowfox on Jun 22, 2020 22:09:45 GMT
Now Carlaw may survive (and obviously will top the Tory west list) but the size of the 2019 SNP win in East Ren means the exclusion of Barrhead from this seat wouldn't have saved him
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Eastwood
Jun 23, 2020 22:17:28 GMT
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Post by chrisscot1988 on Jun 23, 2020 22:17:28 GMT
Now Carlaw may survive (and obviously will top the Tory west list) but the size of the 2019 SNP win in East Ren means the exclusion of Barrhead from this seat wouldn't have saved him Tory vote in Barrhead (and Neilston) was actually up in 2019 compared to 2017. SNP vote was obviously up a lot more though! Nearly all the Tory leakage to the Lib Dems was on the Eastwood side. With Brexit now more settled question is whether those people come back, and probably more importantly whether under Starmer Labour recover any of the vote that went SNP in 2019 in places like Giffnock. Tories can't win in places like this if the Labour vote totally collapses. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Aug 10, 2020 16:06:09 GMT
Alex Kerr is seeking the SNP nomination here. Last year he was sixth on the SNP's European list. Some Nats are not happy he is in the running, as he is an NEC member as thus had some say over the recent controversial decisions within the party.
Incidentally, will the nature of Carlaw's defenestration have an impact here? I can't imagine it will do his already quite precarious majority any favours.
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Eastwood
Aug 10, 2020 16:33:17 GMT
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Post by jollyroger93 on Aug 10, 2020 16:33:17 GMT
Alex Kerr is seeking the SNP nomination here. Last year he was sixth on the SNP's European list. Some Nats are not happy he is in the running, as he is an NEC member as thus had some say over the recent controversial decisions within the party. Incidentally, will the nature of Carlaw's defenestration have an impact here? I can't imagine it will do his already quite precarious majority any favours. With the Brexit question gone I would think Eastwood is safe territory for us. |
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Eastwood
Aug 11, 2020 7:56:03 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Aug 11, 2020 7:56:03 GMT
With Carlaw no longer leader, this will be tough to hold.
The Tories' ceiling looks to be less than 40% looking at the constituency and List vote from 2016.
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Eastwood
Aug 11, 2020 9:19:06 GMT
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Post by jollyroger93 on Aug 11, 2020 9:19:06 GMT
With Carlaw no longer leader, this will be tough to hold. The Tories' ceiling looks to be less than 40% looking at the constituency and List vote from 2016. What are you basing this one? 2016 so a different election with a different set of issues, with Carlaw no longer leader he should be able to not only hold this but increase his majority. |
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finsobruce
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 11, 2020 9:24:08 GMT
With Carlaw no longer leader, this will be tough to hold. The Tories' ceiling looks to be less than 40% looking at the constituency and List vote from 2016. What are you basing this one? 2016 so a different election with a different set of issues, with Carlaw no longer leader he should be able to not only hold this but increase his majority. i would have thought no longer being leader was an advantage rather than a disadvantage, so long as he engages well with the electorate. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 11, 2020 9:46:37 GMT
What are you basing this one? 2016 so a different election with a different set of issues, with Carlaw no longer leader he should be able to not only hold this but increase his majority. i would have thought no longer being leader was an advantage rather than a disadvantage, so long as he engages well with the electorate. If he engaged well with the electorate, he would still be leader. |
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finsobruce
Labour
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 11, 2020 9:52:38 GMT
i would have thought no longer being leader was an advantage rather than a disadvantage, so long as he engages well with the electorate. If he engaged well with the electorate, he would still be leader. I was talking about his own electorate rather than the whole of Scotland. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Aug 11, 2020 10:23:25 GMT
What are you basing this one? 2016 so a different election with a different set of issues, with Carlaw no longer leader he should be able to not only hold this but increase his majority. i would have thought no longer being leader was an advantage rather than a disadvantage, so long as he engages well with the electorate. I’m not so sure. Surely the nature of his removal makes it easy for the SNP to say “Well your own party didn’t have any faith in you, why should the voters of Eastwood?” Eastwood and East Renfrewshire have been very volatile seats for the last five years, so I don’t think Brexit’s resolution helps him at all. And if we leave without a deal it will hardly go down well in an area that was nearly three-quarters Remain. |
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Eastwood
Aug 11, 2020 13:21:02 GMT
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Post by ricmk on Aug 11, 2020 13:21:02 GMT
Might Carlaw stand down? I have no local insight, but human nature might suggest after the few months that he’s had, its time to move away. Plenty of examples of similar and I wonder if he is eyeing up options.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 17, 2020 14:50:53 GMT
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Post by connor on Oct 9, 2020 17:55:23 GMT
Good for her. Not a labor voter, but if she gets the official nomination, then that would be terrific. More disability candidates are always a plus for me, regardless of party rosette.
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