Ayr

[Admin Twaddleford]

Ayr

[Deleted]

Ayr was probably notionally Conservative by a narrow majority last year, but it is the least secure of the South Scotland seats and the Tories will need to watch it, especially if John Scott retires.

A nagging feeling is telling me it may have gone SNP in the regional vote last time, can anyone confirm or deny this please?

[iain]

That is correct

[chrisscot1988]

Do the Tories have a natural successor here to John Scott?

[Jonathan]

Lee Lyons? Martin Dowey did very well in 2017.

[johnyorks]

I’m only an amateur observer when it comes to predicting election results in Scotland, but despite John Scott’s potential retirement (is anything confirmed?), and the possible boost to Jackson Carlaw as party leader, I wouldn’t be shocked if it ended up that Ayr was held and Eastwood lost.

The reason I say that is because the former seems to have a consistently stronger core Tory vote which just keeps turning out, and I don’t really see (yet) why that would change in 2021. Whereas Eastwood has been inherently less reliable, for any party.

[johnyorks]

Mar 26, 2020 15:36:22 GMT Jonathan said:

Lee Lyons? Martin Dowey did very well in 2017.

Derek Stillie? They might think ‘a name’ will improve chances of holding.

[David]

After beating cancer, John Scott is standing again.

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/ayrshire/tory-msp-wins-gruelling-cancer-22545123.amp?__twitter_impression=true

[Sandy]

Aug 19, 2020 18:49:53 GMT David said:

After beating cancer, John Scott is standing again.

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/ayrshire/tory-msp-wins-gruelling-cancer-22545123.amp?__twitter_impression=true

I had more or less written Ayr off as an SNP Gain, I would now probably have us as very, very slight favourites tbh. 

[jollyroger93]

Aug 19, 2020 19:01:16 GMT Sandy said:

Aug 19, 2020 18:49:53 GMT David said:

After beating cancer, John Scott is standing again.

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/ayrshire/tory-msp-wins-gruelling-cancer-22545123.amp?__twitter_impression=true

I had more or less written Ayr off as an SNP Gain, I would now probably have us as very, very slight favourites tbh. 

With John standing well hold it. 

[conservativeestimate]

CON HOLD

[David]

I appreciate the positivity lads, but, NGL, I fear we're going to lose all but one constituency, Berwick. We can't win many FPTP seats while the SNP always hoover up at least 45% or so of the vote.

[jollyroger93]

Aug 20, 2020 13:52:03 GMT David said:

I appreciate the positivity lads, but, NGL, I fear we're going to lose all but one constituency, Berwick. We can't win many FPTP seats while the SNP always hoover up at least 45% or so of the vote.

Sorry David but this is a utterly rubbish post, the SNP got 47% in 2016 and we took 7 seats. Come on cheer up.

[yellowfox]

Relying purely on trends in 2017 and 19 (with caveats) and 2016 statistics (even more caveats) there seems to be a relatively clear ‘danger path’ for the tories:

Edin Central > Eastwood/Ayr > Aber West > Galloway/Dumfries > Berwick

I think the SNP breaking into Galloway etc will be tough for them, but a rising (SNP) tide lifts all boats and with Ayr being a) so close in 2016 and b) a SNP held area at WM (seats are never directly comparable though) it simply must be considered in play regardless of who the candidates are.

Moreover, the tories will be hoping to balance out these losses with gains in Banff and Moray - a better night than 2019 may also have them in play in Aberdeenshire East and then the Angus/Perth seats (whilst a better night for the SNP has them claiming Galloway and so on).

[David]

Aug 20, 2020 19:31:04 GMT yellowfox said:

Relying purely on trends in 2017 and 19 (with caveats) and 2016 statistics (even more caveats) there seems to be a relatively clear ‘danger path’ for the tories:

Edin Central > Eastwood/Ayr > Aber West > Galloway/Dumfries > Berwick

I think the SNP breaking into Galloway etc will be tough for them, but a rising (SNP) tide lifts all boats and with Ayr being a) so close in 2016 and b) a SNP held area at WM (seats are never directly comparable though) it simply must be considered in play regardless of who the candidates are.

Moreover, the tories will be hoping to balance out these losses with gains in Banff and Moray - a better night than 2019 may also have them in play in Aberdeenshire East and then the Angus/Perth seats (whilst a better night for the SNP has them claiming Galloway and so on).

I genuinely think my party is in danger at the constituency level. We might well take Banff and Moray, but the Eastwood and Ayr are in peril for us. Edinburgh Central is a goner in my view

[andrewp]

Aug 20, 2020 19:31:04 GMT yellowfox said:

Relying purely on trends in 2017 and 19 (with caveats) and 2016 statistics (even more caveats) there seems to be a relatively clear ‘danger path’ for the tories:

Edin Central > Eastwood/Ayr > Aber West > Galloway/Dumfries > Berwick

I think the SNP breaking into Galloway etc will be tough for them, but a rising (SNP) tide lifts all boats and with Ayr being a) so close in 2016 and b) a SNP held area at WM (seats are never directly comparable though) it simply must be considered in play regardless of who the candidates are.

Moreover, the tories will be hoping to balance out these losses with gains in Banff and Moray - a better night than 2019 may also have them in play in Aberdeenshire East and then the Angus/Perth seats (whilst a better night for the SNP has them claiming Galloway and so on).

Has anyone worked out a notional for who would have won this Ayr had it been a Westminster constituency in Dec 19? 

[Sandy]

Aug 20, 2020 19:43:27 GMT andrewp said:

Aug 20, 2020 19:31:04 GMT yellowfox said:

Relying purely on trends in 2017 and 19 (with caveats) and 2016 statistics (even more caveats) there seems to be a relatively clear ‘danger path’ for the tories:

Edin Central > Eastwood/Ayr > Aber West > Galloway/Dumfries > Berwick

I think the SNP breaking into Galloway etc will be tough for them, but a rising (SNP) tide lifts all boats and with Ayr being a) so close in 2016 and b) a SNP held area at WM (seats are never directly comparable though) it simply must be considered in play regardless of who the candidates are.

Moreover, the tories will be hoping to balance out these losses with gains in Banff and Moray - a better night than 2019 may also have them in play in Aberdeenshire East and then the Angus/Perth seats (whilst a better night for the SNP has them claiming Galloway and so on).

Has anyone worked out a notional for who would have won this Ayr had it been a Westminster constituency in Dec 19? 

Can't recall for definite but I think it went right down to the wire notionally.

[yellowfox]

Aug 20, 2020 19:43:27 GMT andrewp said:

Aug 20, 2020 19:31:04 GMT yellowfox said:

Relying purely on trends in 2017 and 19 (with caveats) and 2016 statistics (even more caveats) there seems to be a relatively clear ‘danger path’ for the tories:

Edin Central > Eastwood/Ayr > Aber West > Galloway/Dumfries > Berwick

I think the SNP breaking into Galloway etc will be tough for them, but a rising (SNP) tide lifts all boats and with Ayr being a) so close in 2016 and b) a SNP held area at WM (seats are never directly comparable though) it simply must be considered in play regardless of who the candidates are.

Moreover, the tories will be hoping to balance out these losses with gains in Banff and Moray - a better night than 2019 may also have them in play in Aberdeenshire East and then the Angus/Perth seats (whilst a better night for the SNP has them claiming Galloway and so on).

Has anyone worked out a notional for who would have won this Ayr had it been a Westminster constituency in Dec 19? 

The SNP won Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock by 5% (some parts of this seats are in Central Ayrshire, which the SNP won by 11%) so it was certainly close, but I don’t know the demographics here well enough to suggest a brexit related voter redistribution (East Ren is now notionally safer for the SNP than either Hamilton seat).

Safe to say it was incredibly close, but with the SNP polling above 45% nationally I don’t see how the tories would win here if the election was tomorrow.

[max11]

If the SNP take over 50% on the constituency vote Scotland wide holding more than a couple of constituencies will be very difficult and this would be one to go. If we can retain our GE vote share which is higher than 2016 SP election and the SNP go back down to the high 40's then we have more of a chance.

[Sandy]

Aug 20, 2020 19:50:32 GMT yellowfox said:

Aug 20, 2020 19:43:27 GMT andrewp said:

Has anyone worked out a notional for who would have won this Ayr had it been a Westminster constituency in Dec 19? 

The SNP won Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock by 5% (some parts of this seats are in Central Ayrshire, which the SNP won by 11%) so it was certainly close, but I don’t know the demographics here well enough to suggest a brexit related voter redistribution (East Ren is now notionally safer for the SNP than either Hamilton seat).

Safe to say it was incredibly close, but with the SNP polling above 45% nationally I don’t see how the tories would win here if the election was tomorrow.

The two wards of the constituency which are in Central Ayrshire - Prestwick and Troon - are safe Tory wards.