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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 13, 2020 21:35:34 GMT
North East Scotland Region
Incorporating the constituencies of:
Aberdeen Central
Aberdeen Donside
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine
Aberdeenshire East
Aberdeenshire West
Angus North and Mearns
Angus South
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
Dundee City East
Dundee City West
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Post by boogieeck on Mar 17, 2020 9:27:56 GMT
The Conservative party will select its list from its constituency candidates There will be a lot of turnover
Tom mason bill bowman and peter chapman will stand down due to age . Of the original list Ross Thompson went to Westminster and Alex Johnstone died so only Liam Kerr remains plus Alex Burnett who won Aberdeenshire west
It is virtually inevitable that they will be the top two list candidates
Maurice golden MSP has moved from west of Scotland to contest Angus South
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Post by conservativeestimate on Mar 17, 2020 14:29:17 GMT
Might Colin Clark run again for Holyrood?
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Post by boogieeck on Mar 17, 2020 15:55:01 GMT
I think all the seats have already selected, so I believe it is not an option for him, Ross Thompson or Kirstene Hair.
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Post by boogieeck on May 19, 2020 15:17:22 GMT
Looking at the seats, I don't expect (early day caveat) the SNP to be at risk in any seat from Labour or the Lib Dems. I dont expect Alex Burnett to be at risk form the SNP or anyone else.
The Conservatives could pose a risk to the SNP in some seats, Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeen South/Kincardine or the two Angus seats but I suspect that the majority, perhaps all, will prove beyond reach.
All of this said, I expect to see the SNP slip back a bit, the Conservatives make slight progress, Labour make significant progress, and the LDS and greens slip back.
Now if all of that came to fruition, then I am saying that the SNP will get no seats on the list, even if they lose on FPTP, and will get one fewer than they lose for all scenarios. So a list placing will not be a safety net.
The Conservatives would I expect to hold what they have in total, any gains FPTP being cancelled by losses on the list. Therefore, candidates with placings below 2 have to fight to win and hope their colleagues lose. Burnett will be 1, Kerr will be 2.
Labour I expect to gain at least one seat on the list. Jenny Marra and Lewis MacDonald will be two, so the next place is critical. CoSLA President Cllr Alison Evison will be trying for it. If she places below 4 on the list she will engineer a defection to the SNP before or after the election to save her council seat.
MIke Rumbles will probably stand down, if not he will be removed by the Lib Dems. I think they may struggle to hold their seat.
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Post by conservativeestimate on May 19, 2020 19:26:32 GMT
I think Banffshire will end up Buchan the trend - CON GAIN
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 19, 2020 19:42:55 GMT
Looking at the seats, I don't expect (early day caveat) the SNP to be at risk in any seat from Labour or the Lib Dems. I dont expect Alex Burnett to be at risk form the SNP or anyone else. The Conservatives could pose a risk to the SNP in some seats, Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Aberdeen South/Kincardine or the two Angus seats but I suspect that the majority, perhaps all, will prove beyond reach. All of this said, I expect to see the SNP slip back a bit, the Conservatives make slight progress, Labour make significant progress, and the LDS and greens slip back. Now if all of that came to fruition, then I am saying that the SNP will get no seats on the list, even if they lose on FPTP, and will get one fewer than they lose for all scenarios. So a list placing will not be a safety net. The Conservatives would I expect to hold what they have in total, any gains FPTP being cancelled by losses on the list. Therefore, candidates with placings below 2 have to fight to win and hope their colleagues lose. Burnett will be 1, Kerr will be 2. Labour I expect to gain at least one seat on the list. Jenny Marra and Lewis MacDonald will be two, so the next place is critical. CoSLA President Cllr Alison Evison will be trying for it. If she places below 4 on the list she will engineer a defection to the SNP before or after the election to save her council seat. MIke Rumbles will probably stand down, if not he will be removed by the Lib Dems. I think they may struggle to hold their seat. Why do you expect Labour to make significant progress? |
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Post by boogieeck on May 19, 2020 21:05:25 GMT
Jackie Baillie, Ian Murray Keir Hardie and all that goes with it. Richard Leonard is going to learn to be a social democrat or be an ex-leader. The Corbynites are disappearing at the same rate as the membership renewals go out. They expect something for nothing. Post Covid, the parties of government are going to have questions to answer, and there is no possibility that everyone will be impressed with their performance.
If I have hugely misjudged anything it could be that Post CoViD, the parties of government get hounded out of town for tanking the economy and killing grandma.
However, as I have suggested of other thread, the creation of a Salmond list if he is not permitted to rejoin the SNP and cause mayhem in it, could be a game changer. If one in four SNP voters think he got a raw deal, that is 10% of the electorate minimum. One list seat in every region. Furthermore even those nats who do not think he got a raw deal might conclude that an extra separatist elected through the list is better than the last list seat going to a Tory in regions where the SNP are not going to get any list seats.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 17,691
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Post by neilm on May 19, 2020 21:30:44 GMT
I think all the seats have already selected, so I believe it is not an option for him, Ross Thompson or Kirstene Hair. She's definitely one for the fit politicians thread. Ross Thomson as well, to be fair. |
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Post by boogieeck on May 19, 2020 21:41:19 GMT
Kirstene is not currently available. Ross usually is. Unusually, they have the same theme song.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 17,691
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Post by neilm on May 20, 2020 8:06:50 GMT
Kirstene is not currently available. Ross usually is. Unusually, they have the same theme song. I bet he had a good chuckle at Paul Sweeney's whine about having to sign on. |
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Post by edgbaston on May 20, 2020 8:58:54 GMT
Boogs GAIN
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Post by boogieeck on May 20, 2020 13:40:55 GMT
I actually feel bad about that, because I wished it on him
I hope he finds work suitable to his skillset soon and asks many customers if they would like to go large.
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Post by MacShimidh on Sept 7, 2020 12:31:00 GMT
Mike Rumbles of the Lib Dem’s is retiring, according to Ballot Box Scotland.
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,155 
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 7, 2020 13:33:28 GMT
Mike Rumbles of the Lib Dem’s is retiring, according to Ballot Box Scotland. Rumblings about Rumbles. |
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David
Scottish Conservative
Posts: 7,888
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Post by David on Sept 7, 2020 15:16:23 GMT
I actually feel bad about that, because I wished it on him I hope he finds work suitable to his skillset soon and asks many customers if they would like to go large. Seeing as he's not very good at being reelected his only skill seems to be being a grass🤔. He could work at TV licensing! |
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Post by greyfriar on Sept 7, 2020 18:46:12 GMT
Mike Rumbles of the Lib Dem’s is retiring, according to Ballot Box Scotland. Shouldn’t diminish the gravitas of the chamber, unless the Lib Dems select from the Ross Greer profile of candidate. |
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David
Scottish Conservative
Posts: 7,888
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Post by David on Sept 8, 2020 9:37:15 GMT
Stabbing the North East in the back is an interesting SNP strategy.
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alien8ted
Independent
I refuse to be governed by fear.
Posts: 3,715
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Post by alien8ted on Sept 8, 2020 12:02:55 GMT
SNP has no say so their pontificating is just noise.
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Eastwood
Non-Aligned
Politically restricted post
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Post by Eastwood on Nov 11, 2020 10:48:50 GMT
Libertarian gain?
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