Surrey

[Admin Twaddleford]

Surrey

[saffer]

In the Haslemere division, popular independent councillor is not seeking re-election, for family reasons. Local LibDems, who had originally intended to stand aside to give her a clear run (as they did in her by-election win in 2019), will now field a candidate, and have named town and borough councillor and current mayor John Robini.

[saffer]

In the Haslemere division, popular independent councillor is not seeking re-election, for family reasons. Local LibDems, who had originally intended to stand aside to give her a clear run (as they did in her by-election win in 2019), will now field a candidate, and have named town and borough councillor and current mayor John Robini.

[casualobserver]

Kier Kirby standing for George Galloway's Workers Party in Epson Town division.

workerspartybritain.org/what-kind-of-britain/ (go to page 3)

[froome]

Mar 21, 2021 21:45:04 GMT casualobserver said:

Kier Kirby standing for George Galloway's Workers Party in Epson Town division.

workerspartybritain.org/what-kind-of-britain/ (go to page 3)

Presumably standing to sell ink cartridges for printers?

[saffer]

In Guildford, Greens and LibDems have announced an election agreement, not to stand against each other.
In some Waverley divisions, there are similar agreements (but not yet in the public domain. Announcements are likely shortly).


guildfordlibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1401092/liberal-democrats-and-greens-announce-election-agreement

[iain]

Are we planning to gift more seats to the Tories by standing down for Labour in Goldalming again?

[saffer]

Absolutely NOT going to stand down for anyone in Godalming. Paul Follows, council leader on Godalming TC and deputy leader on Waverley BC has a strong personal following and is the candidate in Godalming South/Milford and Witley, fighting hard for a win. In Godalming N, the sitting councillor Penny Rivers is again our candidate. In both these divisions, we expect the Greens to be standing aside.

The only spoiler would be Labour, who could gift one or both these to the Tories.

[bigfatron]

Initial canvassing in Surrey is suggesting quite a lot of dissatisfaction with both councils and government, all of which are Tory. Still very unclear how much it will translate into votes on the day, and where those votes might go - Labour is weak in most of the county, and Residents/Independents, Greens and Lib Dems will struggle after a year of minimal local campaigning.

I suspect Lib Dems will do OK where they are entrenched (Guildford, Dorking, Caterham) and can get a good campaign out in the next few weeks, but will struggle elsewhere...

[saffer]

In Haslemere, interesting that leaflet from Tory candidate Ged Hall barely mentions Conservative name, and ignores county issues. One side says he is backing Jeremy Hunt's campaign to support breast cancer treatment at Royal Surrey (what does this have to do with the county?), the other promotes a misleading campaign to "restore" funding for the Woolmer Hill sports pavilion - a Waverley BC issue.

The feeling in Waverley is that Conservatives are worried.

[heslingtonian]

I do wonder if some of the wealthier areas of Surrey that have seen significant influxes of affluent Remain-voting youngish London emigres in recent years might behave quite differently from some of the older, less fashionable Surrey local authorities at this election. If I was a Conservative county councillor with a division in Spelthorne, Reigate & Banstead or Tandridge I think I would feel more confident of retaining my seat than if I was in Guildford, Mole Valley or Waverley but this perception may be wrong or exaggerated.

[bigfatron]

Tandridge has a huge north/south split - the north is moving to be almost exclusively Lib Dem or Lib Dem-minded independents, we could have only three Tories left after May out of 23 seats.

The middle/south of the district is where the huge Tory v Residents battle is ongoing, and eth Tories are losing - the only places they are safe in are some of the small rural one-seat wards.

The Tories might be the third party after May in Tandridge, a council they have otherwise had a majority in between its creation and 2019!

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 27, 2021 19:13:28 GMT bigfatron said:

Tandridge has a huge north/south split - the north is moving to be almost exclusively Lib Dem or Lib Dem-minded independents, we could have only three Tories left after May out of 23 seats.

The middle/south of the district is where the huge Tory v Residents battle is ongoing, and eth Tories are losing - the only places they are safe in are some of the small rural one-seat wards.

The Tories might be the third party after May in Tandridge, a council they have otherwise had a majority in between its creation and 2019!

This is the Surrey county council thread so you might want to post your observations about Tandridge district council on the relevant Tandridge thread. If you do, it will be useful for you to recall that Tandridge was under no overall control for almost the entirety of the 1990s

[bigfatron]

Mar 27, 2021 19:24:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 27, 2021 19:13:28 GMT bigfatron said:

Tandridge has a huge north/south split - the north is moving to be almost exclusively Lib Dem or Lib Dem-minded independents, we could have only three Tories left after May out of 23 seats.

The middle/south of the district is where the huge Tory v Residents battle is ongoing, and eth Tories are losing - the only places they are safe in are some of the small rural one-seat wards.

The Tories might be the third party after May in Tandridge, a council they have otherwise had a majority in between its creation and 2019!

This is the Surrey county council thread so you might want to post your observations about Tandridge district council on the relevant Tandridge thread. If you do, it will be useful for you to recall that Tandridge was under no overall control for almost the entirety of the 1990s

I'll bet you're a laugh at parties....

As it happens  the County council seats follow a similar pattern - Lib Dems hold the two Caterham seats and are challenging in Warlingham, but have no hope elsewhere where it is a  straight Tory / Residents fight, so the geographical distinction is relevant to Surrey CC.
Fair comment about the nineties, my apologies for the error - the Tories were the largest party I believe throughout?

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 27, 2021 21:30:30 GMT bigfatron said:

Mar 27, 2021 19:24:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

This is the Surrey county council thread so you might want to post your observations about Tandridge district council on the relevant Tandridge thread. If you do, it will be useful for you to recall that Tandridge was under no overall control for almost the entirety of the 1990s

I'll bet you're a laugh at parties....

As it happens  the County council seats follow a similar pattern - Lib Dems hold the two Caterham seats and are challenging in Warlingham, but have no hope elsewhere where it is a  straight Tory / Residents fight, so the geographical distinction is relevant to Surrey CC.
Fair comment about the nineties, my apologies for the error - the Tories were the largest party I believe throughout?

No

[saffer]

Mar 27, 2021 17:45:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

I do wonder if some of the wealthier areas of Surrey that have seen significant influxes of affluent Remain-voting youngish London emigres in recent years might behave quite differently from some of the older, less fashionable Surrey local authorities at this election. If I was a Conservative county councillor with a division in Spelthorne, Reigate & Banstead or Tandridge I think I would feel more confident of retaining my seat than if I was in Guildford, Mole Valley or Waverley but this perception may be wrong or exaggerated.

You're absolutely correct in this. 

In Haslemere and Godalming, we've seen gains in 2019 locals (and inspection at the Westminster count) in affluent parts of the town that we've barely contested in the past. In Waverley W Villages our candidate (who is running a superb campaign) is a former staunch Conservative who switched over Brexit. In Cranleigh, our candidate is a borough councillor, originally elected as a Conservative. 

[bigfatron]

Mar 29, 2021 15:25:48 GMT saffer said:

Mar 27, 2021 17:45:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

I do wonder if some of the wealthier areas of Surrey that have seen significant influxes of affluent Remain-voting youngish London emigres in recent years might behave quite differently from some of the older, less fashionable Surrey local authorities at this election. If I was a Conservative county councillor with a division in Spelthorne, Reigate & Banstead or Tandridge I think I would feel more confident of retaining my seat than if I was in Guildford, Mole Valley or Waverley but this perception may be wrong or exaggerated.

You're absolutely correct in this. 

In Haslemere and Godalming, we've seen gains in 2019 locals (and inspection at the Westminster count) in affluent parts of the town that we've barely contested in the past. In Waverley W Villages our candidate (who is running a superb campaign) is a former staunch Conservative who switched over Brexit. In Cranleigh, our candidate is a borough councillor, originally elected as a Conservative. 

Likewise in Oxted we have an ex-Tory Candidate now standing for the Lib Dems - he switched over Brexit concerns plus the perceived lack of council competence (County and District) 

[andrewp]

Mar 29, 2021 15:25:48 GMT saffer said:

Mar 27, 2021 17:45:23 GMT heslingtonian said:

I do wonder if some of the wealthier areas of Surrey that have seen significant influxes of affluent Remain-voting youngish London emigres in recent years might behave quite differently from some of the older, less fashionable Surrey local authorities at this election. If I was a Conservative county councillor with a division in Spelthorne, Reigate & Banstead or Tandridge I think I would feel more confident of retaining my seat than if I was in Guildford, Mole Valley or Waverley but this perception may be wrong or exaggerated.

You're absolutely correct in this. 

In Haslemere and Godalming, we've seen gains in 2019 locals (and inspection at the Westminster count) in affluent parts of the town that we've barely contested in the past. In Waverley W Villages our candidate (who is running a superb campaign) is a former staunch Conservative who switched over Brexit. In Cranleigh, our candidate is a borough councillor, originally elected as a Conservative. 

It will be interesting as to whether the effect of Brexit is starting to wear off at all.

In most parts of the South East, On the evidence of the last couple of years, If I were Conservative candidate I would probably rather be in a ward/ division where Labour are the main opponents and preferably somewhere not too posh/ remainy.

In the South West, in more leave areas,  it will be interesting to see whether the Lib Dem’s can build on their local election successes in 2019 in eg Devon and Gloucestershire, and who knows what will happen in Cornwall.

[saffer]

In Waverley, LibDems and Greens have agreements in Godalming North and G. South and Haslemere, where Greens will stand down to benefit LD. In Waverley Eastern Villages (mostly Chiddingfold and Bramley), LibDems are standing down in favour of Greens.

LD should retain Godalming N and gain Godalming S. on paper, Haslemere (where I am) would be an unlikely gain, but a strong endorsement from the popular outgoing independent, and Greens stepping aside, makes it an interesting possibility.

We're also fighting hard in Cranleigh - but I don't have a feel for how that will go.

[sirbenjamin]

Mar 27, 2021 19:24:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 27, 2021 19:13:28 GMT bigfatron said:

Tandridge has a huge north/south split - the north is moving to be almost exclusively Lib Dem or Lib Dem-minded independents, we could have only three Tories left after May out of 23 seats.

The middle/south of the district is where the huge Tory v Residents battle is ongoing, and eth Tories are losing - the only places they are safe in are some of the small rural one-seat wards.

The Tories might be the third party after May in Tandridge, a council they have otherwise had a majority in between its creation and 2019!

This is the Surrey county council thread so you might want to post your observations about Tandridge district council on the relevant Tandridge thread. If you do, it will be useful for you to recall that Tandridge was under no overall control for almost the entirety of the 1990s

Famously taking control of the council (in 1994?) on an otherwise disastrous night of local election results! It's one of the reasons I moved here.