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Post by andrewteale on Feb 23, 2021 8:15:13 GMT
It's not as if there's even a financial saving to be made by cancelling these elections. PCC elections are still going ahead.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 284
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Post by ilerda on Feb 23, 2021 8:18:44 GMT
As important a place as Somerset is, I really don’t believe control of Somerset County Council is so crucial to the party of government that they would conspire to abolish it instead of lose it.
This is just another case where the simplest explanation is by far the most likely: sheer incompetence.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Er/ihn/ihm
Posts: 5,189 
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2021 8:21:32 GMT
The experiences of Cheshire, Bedfordshire, Cornwall, Wiltshire and Shropshire since 2009 should demonstrate why this is not a good idea. If there has to be local government reorganisation here, a two-tier system should still have been on the table. And elections should not be able to be outright cancelled, under any circumstances, at just ten and a half weeks' notice. On the gov webpage: "The Local Government Secretary will consider all proposals following the consultation before making a decision about which option, if any, to implement in each of the 3 areas. This would be subject to Parliamentary approval." That tells me that Status Quo is an option. I'm not exactly the biggest admirer of the current arrangement either, but it's a darn sight better than either of the unitarisation proposals, so that "if any" does offer a glimmer of hope. I think you meant lower case status quo, though. Then again, Francis Rossi and the late Rick Parfitt could do a better job running Somerset than the present treacherous occupants of County Hall! |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 8,327
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 23, 2021 8:40:39 GMT
On the gov webpage: "The Local Government Secretary will consider all proposals following the consultation before making a decision about which option, if any, to implement in each of the 3 areas. This would be subject to Parliamentary approval." That tells me that Status Quo is an option. I'm not exactly the biggest admirer of the current arrangement either, but it's a darn sight better than either of the unitarisation proposals, so that "if any" does offer a glimmer of hope. I think you meant lower case status quo, though. Then again, Francis Rossi and the late Rick Parfitt could do a better job running Somerset than the present treacherous occupants of County Hall! Whatever you want....  |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 23, 2021 8:53:16 GMT
It has occured to me that, if the Tories are having a reasonably bad night, they could have lost Somerset this May. Might have encouraged the decision to cancel. I don't doubt for a second that this formed part of the thought process. Decisions such as this, taken (or at least only confirmed) at such short notice, should not have any scope to be seen as partisan. I think losing overall control of Mendip and losing the new SW&T district outright in 2019 must've spooked them. I think they might well have lost control personally. They have a majority of 11, and have at least 3 or 4 divisions that looked very hard for them to hold, for a starter. FWIW the county council submitted the business case for Unitary last July, and had been expecting this decision before Christmas- so it’s come about 2 months later than expected. Im genuinely interested in what the advantage of 2 unitaries would be. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 23, 2021 8:59:42 GMT
It has occured to me that, if the Tories are having a reasonably bad night, they could have lost Somerset this May. Might have encouraged the decision to cancel. Over the summer I took on the slightly silly task of trying to estimate what 2021 local elections (including those already scheduled for this year plus the 2020 delayed elections) could look like if voting patterns from the 2019 local elections were replicated. This involved much poring over maps to compare ward and division boundaries (where they don't quite match or there are boundary changes then also creation of notional results) and in some case where there have been no local elections since 2017 (i.e. mainly the unitaries that used to be counties) then there was a bit of jiggery pokery extrapolating swings from the wider region. After about three months work I reached the position where I had projected % vote shares for every ward and division due to face elections in May. It's not necessarily a prediction of what I think will happen in May, rather it's a projection of how a repeat of 2019 could play out in this set of councils, wards and divisions. Last week I updated the starting positions to reflect the most recent casual vacancies, defections etc. Anyway, to cut a long story short my current figures (before the announcement on Somerset, Cumbria and North Yorkshire being cancelled) projected net changes as follows: Conservative: -425 seats, -13 councils (including Somerset) Labour: -87 seats, -7 councils Lib Dem: +198 seats, +1 council (which was Somerset) Other / NOC: +314 seats, +19 councils |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 23, 2021 12:17:54 GMT
It has occured to me that, if the Tories are having a reasonably bad night, they could have lost Somerset this May. Might have encouraged the decision to cancel. Over the summer I took on the slightly silly task of trying to estimate what 2021 local elections (including those already scheduled for this year plus the 2020 delayed elections) could look like if voting patterns from the 2019 local elections were replicated. This involved much poring over maps to compare ward and division boundaries (where they don't quite match or there are boundary changes then also creation of notional results) and in some case where there have been no local elections since 2017 (i.e. mainly the unitaries that used to be counties) then there was a bit of jiggery pokery extrapolating swings from the wider region. After about three months work I reached the position where I had projected % vote shares for every ward and division due to face elections in May. It's not necessarily a prediction of what I think will happen in May, rather it's a projection of how a repeat of 2019 could play out in this set of councils, wards and divisions. Last week I updated the starting positions to reflect the most recent casual vacancies, defections etc. Anyway, to cut a long story short my current figures (before the announcement on Somerset, Cumbria and North Yorkshire being cancelled) projected net changes as follows: Conservative: -425 seats, -13 councils (including Somerset) Labour: -87 seats, -7 councils Lib Dem: +198 seats, +1 council (which was Somerset) Other / NOC: +314 seats, +19 councils Do you have a list of the councils that would change political control? |
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