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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 13, 2020 20:46:52 GMT
Oxfordshire
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 23, 2020 13:43:39 GMT
Currently 29 Con, 13 Lib Dem, 14 Labour, 1 Green, and 6 independents three of whom are aligned with the Tories and three are not.
Cllr Hilary Biles (Chipping Norton) recently left the Conservatives and is part of the latter group of Independents. The ruling group’s majority is one,
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Post by london(ex)tory on Oct 23, 2020 18:41:10 GMT
Presumably the Lib Dems will be looking to make gains following their success in last year’s district elections in Vale of White Horse and South Oxfordshire?
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 23, 2020 21:37:48 GMT
Admin Twaddleford, can we change 'Non Metropolitan County Councils' to 'County Councils' please? There haven't been any metropolitan counties for 34 years.
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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Oct 23, 2020 21:41:21 GMT
Admin Twaddleford, can we change 'Non Metropolitan County Councils' to 'County Councils' please? There haven't been any metropolitan counties for 34 years. I don't think it should cause much (if any) confusion to do so, though the relevant boards in the Archive section will retain their original labels. |
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 26, 2020 22:43:51 GMT
Presumably the Lib Dems will be looking to make gains following their success in last year’s district elections in Vale of White Horse and South Oxfordshire? Correct, the Tories are hanging by a thread with support from some independents,but South Oxon and the Vale especially will get rid of them in the towns at the very least,they'll be massive redundancies at Harwell Science Campus and Culham if we go for a no deal Brexit, plus the Vale and northern parts of Sth Oxon are very well connected to Oxford geographically and economically, so any drop in the University's fortune and associated businesses will deeply hurt places like Abingdon and Thame. The independent councillor in Henley won't back the Tories for sure in a kingmaker situation, they have huge spats documented in the Henley Standard over the running of the town council,which the indies run,and the indie county councillor is currently sitting on a very large majority. Labour's performance in Didcot will be one to watch, I would like to see if Labour's gains in vote share in Wantage constituency are reversed with the new leader. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 26, 2020 22:58:02 GMT
Hmmm.... what Labour vote share gains in Wantage are they? They are in their worst position since 2010 (or before that, for greater perspective, 1983).
Otherwise that analysis is correct. Labour could pick up in Cherwell (and presumably regain Neville Harris’ seat, and possibly win the odd place like Chipping Norton at a push). The Vale and South are likely to be Lib Dem (possibly jointly with Green) campaigns. Some of the 2017 Tory holds look pretty unlikely now.
The Tories seem to be in selection mode and a fair few retirements and putsches seem to be on the cards.
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 26, 2020 23:14:30 GMT
Hmmm.... what Labour vote share gains in Wantage are they? They are in their worst position since 2010 (or before that, for greater perspective, 1983). Otherwise that analysis is correct. Labour could pick up in Cherwell (and presumably regain Neville Harris’ seat, and possibly win somewhere like Chipping Norton at a push). The Vale and South are likely to be Lib Dem (possibly jointly with Green) campaigns. Some of the 2017 Tory holds look pretty unlikely now. The Tories seem to be in selection mode and a fair few retirements and putsches seem to be on the cards. Banbury seems like the kind of white flight type place that is permanently moving away from Labour now, but I wonder if high house prices in Oxford will force people out to Bicester and Banbury, countering this trend. Re Wantage, I meant 2015 to 2017 changes. I don't think KS' acceptance of Brexit will go down well in the Vale. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 26, 2020 23:24:35 GMT
Banbury itself has remained a fairly constant Lab/Con battleground since the year dot; the Hardwick division is the one in play. Bicester which is growing rapidly is potentially less predictable.
Wantage town and constituency was pretty decent for the Lib Dems in 2019. I wouldn’t expect results to follow the patterns of the General Election though.
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 27, 2020 3:53:59 GMT
Banbury itself has remained a fairly constant Lab/Con battleground since the year dot; the Hardwick division is the one in play. Bicester which is growing rapidly is potentially less predictable. Wantage town and constituency was pretty decent for the Lib Dems in 2019. I wouldn’t expect results to follow the patterns of the General Election though. Wantage itself may have been and the commuter villages like Marcham in Wantage constituency will have been the places where the Lib Dems did well at the general, the rest of their good performance was just tactical voting, although I'm pretty sure they got very few votes if any at all in Didcot itself, I might want a security guard for the day if I were a Lib Dem sent to campaign in Didcot  . You're maybe right about Banbury, it's not the end of Oxon which I know best, but I'm pretty sure that it's chock full of the white van man demographic especially in the council estate wards which are moving against Labour permanently. In any case, what happens in Cherwell District doesn't matter one bit because, even if the Libs and Greens only take a few seats in South Oxon and the Vale, the Tories are buggered. I agree about Bicester,but the newly improved rail connections to London and Oxford (and,in future MK,Bedford,Herts and Cambridge) might turn it Liberal over the coming decades. The general election wasn't a mirror of local results in Oxon,but it followed a very clear general trend towards the Libs. Didcot itself is mostly very pro Brexit WWC territory as I'm sure you know, although the new estates will be changing the character somewhat. So the Libs aren't really winning there,it's a straight fight between the Tories and Labour in most of it, areas like Ladygrove might see Labour gain,giving a new Lib Dem-Labour-Green administration a more workable majority, but I think Didcot West will be out of reach now Great Western Park has been built and the eastern seat has split opposition, with the Libs I'm assuming getting a good level of support from the Hagbournes, which are very different from Didcot demographically of course. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 27, 2020 8:44:06 GMT
Didcot has Lib Dem councillors now..... (In some of the new estate bits)
Banbury is more like Warwickshire than Oxfordshire in many ways, not least appearance. Many of the councillors and candidates have been around for years. The other part of Cherwell which could change - based on District results alone - is around Kidlington where Layla Moran has been involved in the campaigns against largescale development.
I don’t know which way Bicester will turn, but the Greens are active there now.
I’d agree that commuter villages that look to Oxford are likely not to vote Tory for some time - it really just depends who is providing the opposition.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 27, 2020 11:52:15 GMT
Hmmm.... what Labour vote share gains in Wantage are they? They are in their worst position since 2010 (or before that, for greater perspective, 1983). Otherwise that analysis is correct. Labour could pick up in Cherwell (and presumably regain Neville Harris’ seat, and possibly win somewhere like Chipping Norton at a push). The Vale and South are likely to be Lib Dem (possibly jointly with Green) campaigns. Some of the 2017 Tory holds look pretty unlikely now. The Tories seem to be in selection mode and a fair few retirements and putsches seem to be on the cards. Banbury seems like the kind of white flight type place that is permanently moving away from Labour now, but I wonder if high house prices in Oxford will force people out to Bicester and Banbury, countering this trend. Re Wantage, I meant 2015 to 2017 changes. I don't think KS' acceptance of Brexit will go down well in the Vale. Well, the other Sir who leads a political party has also "accepted" Brexit - so for that and other reasons, I doubt it will be much of a factor. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 27, 2020 11:55:59 GMT
Banbury itself has remained a fairly constant Lab/Con battleground since the year dot; the Hardwick division is the one in play. Bicester which is growing rapidly is potentially less predictable. Wantage town and constituency was pretty decent for the Lib Dems in 2019. I wouldn’t expect results to follow the patterns of the General Election though. Wantage itself may have been and the commuter villages like Marcham in Wantage constituency will have been the places where the Lib Dems did well at the general, the rest of their good performance was just tactical voting, although I'm pretty sure they got very few votes if any at all in Didcot itself, I might want a security guard for the day if I were a Lib Dem sent to campaign in Didcot . You're maybe right about Banbury, it's not the end of Oxon which I know best, but I'm pretty sure that it's chock full of the white van man demographic especially in the council estate wards which are moving against Labour permanently. In any case, what happens in Cherwell District doesn't matter one bit because, even if the Libs and Greens only take a few seats in South Oxon and the Vale, the Tories are buggered. I agree about Bicester,but the newly improved rail connections to London and Oxford (and,in future MK,Bedford,Herts and Cambridge) might turn it Liberal over the coming decades. The general election wasn't a mirror of local results in Oxon,but it followed a very clear general trend towards the Libs. Didcot itself is mostly very pro Brexit WWC territory as I'm sure you know, although the new estates will be changing the character somewhat. So the Libs aren't really winning there,it's a straight fight between the Tories and Labour in most of it, areas like Ladygrove might see Labour gain,giving a new Lib Dem-Labour-Green administration a more workable majority, but I think Didcot West will be out of reach now Great Western Park has been built and the eastern seat has split opposition, with the Libs I'm assuming getting a good level of support from the Hagbournes, which are very different from Didcot demographically of course. This view of Didcot is either seriously out of date or viewed through spectacles of a very lurid colour. "Very few LD votes if any at all in Didcot", "I might want a securityguard for the day If I were sent to campaign in Didcot" Really? Look at the 2019 results for the three Didcot wards in South Oxon. 8 seats up for grabs, and admittedly Lib Dems only fought 6 of them, as they didn't oppose the Indy or the Green, whereas Labour and Con fought all 8. Labour won 3 seats out of 8 with 4416 votes, Tories 2 seats out of 8 with 4663 votes and Lib Dems 2 seats out of 6 with 3793, while the Indy took the other seat with 1248 votes and the Green got 451 votes. So the Lib Dems are at least on a par with Lab and Con. Now you may want to argue that the three Didcot wards include suburban bits that aren't true Didcot like you imagine it, but you don't get votes comparable to the two major parties without some strength in the town itself. Even in 2015, not exactly the Lib Dems finest hour anywhere, the Lib Dems were outpolling UKIP in this allegedly Brexit hotspot. |
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 27, 2020 15:51:57 GMT
Banbury seems like the kind of white flight type place that is permanently moving away from Labour now, but I wonder if high house prices in Oxford will force people out to Bicester and Banbury, countering this trend. Re Wantage, I meant 2015 to 2017 changes. I don't think KS' acceptance of Brexit will go down well in the Vale. Well, the other Sir who leads a political party has also "accepted" Brexit - so for that and other reasons, I doubt it will be much of a factor. But the local Lib Dem MP and constituency party have been very vocal in rejecting that position, plus the Greens are also relatively strong not too far away in South Oxon and Oxford City, so they could mop up the vote of those made redundant when Brexit absolutely wrecks the research industry in the area. |
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 27, 2020 16:09:14 GMT
Wantage itself may have been and the commuter villages like Marcham in Wantage constituency will have been the places where the Lib Dems did well at the general, the rest of their good performance was just tactical voting, although I'm pretty sure they got very few votes if any at all in Didcot itself, I might want a security guard for the day if I were a Lib Dem sent to campaign in Didcot . You're maybe right about Banbury, it's not the end of Oxon which I know best, but I'm pretty sure that it's chock full of the white van man demographic especially in the council estate wards which are moving against Labour permanently. In any case, what happens in Cherwell District doesn't matter one bit because, even if the Libs and Greens only take a few seats in South Oxon and the Vale, the Tories are buggered. I agree about Bicester,but the newly improved rail connections to London and Oxford (and,in future MK,Bedford,Herts and Cambridge) might turn it Liberal over the coming decades. The general election wasn't a mirror of local results in Oxon,but it followed a very clear general trend towards the Libs. Didcot itself is mostly very pro Brexit WWC territory as I'm sure you know, although the new estates will be changing the character somewhat. So the Libs aren't really winning there,it's a straight fight between the Tories and Labour in most of it, areas like Ladygrove might see Labour gain,giving a new Lib Dem-Labour-Green administration a more workable majority, but I think Didcot West will be out of reach now Great Western Park has been built and the eastern seat has split opposition, with the Libs I'm assuming getting a good level of support from the Hagbournes, which are very different from Didcot demographically of course. This view of Didcot is either seriously out of date or viewed through spectacles of a very lurid colour. "Very few LD votes if any at all in Didcot", "I might want a securityguard for the day If I were sent to campaign in Didcot" Really? Look at the 2019 results for the three Didcot wards in South Oxon. 8 seats up for grabs, and admittedly Lib Dems only fought 6 of them, as they didn't oppose the Indy or the Green, whereas Labour and Con fought all 8. Labour won 3 seats out of 8 with 4416 votes, Tories 2 seats out of 8 with 4663 votes and Lib Dems 2 seats out of 6 with 3793, while the Indy took the other seat with 1248 votes and the Green got 451 votes. So the Lib Dems are at least on a par with Lab and Con. Now you may want to argue that the three Didcot wards include suburban bits that aren't true Didcot like you imagine it, but you don't get votes comparable to the two major parties without some strength in the town itself. Even in 2015, not exactly the Lib Dems finest hour anywhere, the Lib Dems were outpolling UKIP in this allegedly Brexit hotspot. The point you've failed to recognise there YP, is that they get their support from the new estates like Great Western Park and the surrounding villages like the Hagbournes,which have a very different demographic altogether as I mentioned.If you look back to election results before the new estates were built in 2013, the Liberals were near the bottom of the vote totals for all 3 Didcot seats. And this is an area that probably didn't do too badly off the coalition, the LD's were doing very well in Abingdon at the time. |
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 27, 2020 16:17:02 GMT
Didcot has Lib Dem councillors now..... (In some of the new estate bits) Banbury is more like Warwickshire than Oxfordshire in many ways, not least appearance. Many of the councillors and candidates have been around for years. The other part of Cherwell which could change - based on District results alone - is around Kidlington where Layla Moran has been involved in the campaigns against largescale development. I don’t know which way Bicester will turn, but the Greens are active there now. I’d agree that commuter villages that look to Oxford are likely not to vote Tory for some time - it really just depends who is providing the opposition. Kidlington is very different to the rest of Cherwell to me, it's really a suburb of Oxford. Bicester I reckon could be a good target for the Greens too, plenty of locals there against the effective new town being built on the outskirts. |
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 27, 2020 16:51:17 GMT
Kidlington (like Carterton) is unique in Oxfordshire terms.
In Carterton the Tory one-party rule may be challenged if Cllr Handley restands as an Independent. As a former union shop steward he did make an unusual Tory.
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 28, 2020 17:59:57 GMT
Kidlington (like Carterton) is unique in Oxfordshire terms. In Carterton the Tory one-party rule may be challenged if Cllr Handley restands as an Independent. As a former union shop steward he did make an unusual Tory. Carterton has the massive army influence on its politics,so I can't imagine anyone associated with a union standing there. But it will be interesting if he wins and backs a Tory bid to run OCC, because it's definitely going to be a tight one next May. I will be voting in the Henley division of OCC as my home address,so will be watching the state of play very closely. |
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 28, 2020 20:47:26 GMT
Kidlington (like Carterton) is unique in Oxfordshire terms. In Carterton the Tory one-party rule may be challenged if Cllr Handley restands as an Independent. As a former union shop steward he did make an unusual Tory. Carterton has the massive army influence on its politics,so I can't imagine anyone associated with a union standing there. But it will be interesting if he wins and backs a Tory bid to run OCC, because it's definitely going to be a tight one next May. I will be voting in the Henley division of OCC as my home address,so will be watching the state of play very closely. He already stood there and won, the question is if he will retire or run again |
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on Oct 29, 2020 18:01:21 GMT
Carterton has the massive army influence on its politics,so I can't imagine anyone associated with a union standing there. But it will be interesting if he wins and backs a Tory bid to run OCC, because it's definitely going to be a tight one next May. I will be voting in the Henley division of OCC as my home address,so will be watching the state of play very closely. He already stood there and won, the question is if he will retire or run again Yeah,under the Tory banner. Question is whether he can win as an Indy and which administration he'll then back on OCC. |
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. You're maybe right about Banbury, it's not the end of Oxon which I know best, but I'm pretty sure that it's chock full of the white van man demographic especially in the council estate wards which are moving against Labour permanently. In any case, what happens in Cherwell District doesn't matter one bit because, even if the Libs and Greens only take a few seats in South Oxon and the Vale, the Tories are buggered. I agree about Bicester,but the newly improved rail connections to London and Oxford (and,in future MK,Bedford,Herts and Cambridge) might turn it Liberal over the coming decades. 
