Nottinghamshire

[Admin Twaddleford]

Nottinghamshire

[conservativeestimate]

Take out Nottingham and the General Election results were

CON 223,587 53%
LAB 134,353 32%
LD 26,132 6%
BXP 9,687 2%
GRN 6,741 2%
OTH 21,794 5%

[The Bishop]

I think we can be reasonably confident those won't be the scores here next year, beyond that little is predictable.

[vino]

I understand Ashfield Independents are standing in 16 seats - don't know what effect they will have - but seem to be pretty popular in my area [Hucknall]

[lancastrian]

Feb 3, 2021 23:03:52 GMT vino said:

I understand Ashfield Independents are standing in 16 seats - don't know what effect they will have - but seem to be pretty popular in my area [Hucknall]

There are 10 divisions in Ashfield district, plus two in Broxtowe wholly or partly in Ashfield constituency. Would they stand anywhere else? If they repeat their 2019 performance and gain more seats continued NOC looks a very likely result.

But before discussing candidates, is this election actually going ahead? Local news reports last year on the unitary authority proposals suggest it will be called off. 'A move that Kim Jong-un would be proud of' according to Zadrozny.

[vino]

Perhaps it is :

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9226903/Local-elections-England-Wales-given-green-light-strict-Covid-safety-measures.html

[jm]

It was reported in the local press last year that the unitary proposal has been shelved, for now.

2017 was a very bad year for a Labour and I expect they will pick up a few seats in Retford, Hucknall and perhaps West Bridgford this time, but it won't be enough for them to take control of the council. Ashfield Independents and MIF are likely to continue to dominate in Ashfield/Mansfield.

This is an area that is trending Conservative, although Labour tend to do much better in locals here, especially in Bassetlaw. The most likely result is continued NOC with Conservatives as the largest party.

[jamie]

Feb 6, 2021 16:26:21 GMT jm said:

2017 was a very bad year for a Labour and I expect they will pick up a few seats in Retford, Hucknall and perhaps West Bridgford this time, but it won't be enough for them to take control of the council. Ashfield Independents and MIF are likely to continue to dominate in Ashfield/Mansfield.

This is an area that is trending Conservative, although Labour tend to do much better in locals here, especially in Bassetlaw. The most likely result is continued NOC with Conservatives as the largest party.

MiF had a poor election in 2019, particularly given the very good national context for Not-Labour/Conservative, so may do poorly again this year (though given the hard Tory trend of Mansfield, it might not benefit Labour). 

Good point on the Labour overperformance in council elections, it was most noticeable in large parts of the the Midlands where Labour broadly matched their 2017 general election performance in what were otherwise awful May council elections. If that stopped then even a big swing back from the 2019 general election result could see Labour stagnating in council elections. 

[lancastrian]

Feb 6, 2021 21:27:24 GMT jamie said:

Feb 6, 2021 16:26:21 GMT jm said:

2017 was a very bad year for a Labour and I expect they will pick up a few seats in Retford, Hucknall and perhaps West Bridgford this time, but it won't be enough for them to take control of the council. Ashfield Independents and MIF are likely to continue to dominate in Ashfield/Mansfield.

This is an area that is trending Conservative, although Labour tend to do much better in locals here, especially in Bassetlaw. The most likely result is continued NOC with Conservatives as the largest party.

MiF had a poor election in 2019, particularly given the very good national context for Not-Labour/Conservative, so may do poorly again this year (though given the hard Tory trend of Mansfield, it might not benefit Labour). 

Good point on the Labour overperformance in council elections, it was most noticeable in large parts of the the Midlands where Labour broadly matched their 2017 general election performance in what were otherwise awful May council elections. If that stopped then even a big swing back from the 2019 general election result could see Labour stagnating in council elections. 

Almost all the MIF seats on the district council now are in the Mansfield East and Mansfield South county divisions, which they already hold. The Conservatives won two district seats in 2019, both in the South division. Having no specific knowledge my guess would be the Tories win nothing in Mansfield this time, but there must be some people who'll vote for them locally now.

Labour's performances in the 2019 locals in the Nottinghamshire coalfield areas were mixed, but when they lost it wasn't usually to the Tories- there's not much Kier Starmer can do about Ashfield. The council majority in Mansfield was lost but they won the Mayoral election (albeit they were extremely fortunate with the huge number of non-transferable votes), whilst results in Bassetlaw were excellent. The one place they went backwards against the Tories was the Sherwood Forest area - had they been up in May 2019 at least one county seat would have been lost. A lot has happened since then however.

[simonb]

This will be an extremely interesting contest particularly in light of the GE results. There will also be a significant number of independents of various shades competing for seats and overall I would expect the council to remain NOC

Taking the county in areas

Broxtowe- I would expect the seats in the south of the borough to remain as they are. The Lib Dem seat in Beeston may be vulnerable but the sitting councillor is well dug in and should hold. Staple ford and Central Broxtowe may well return an independent and I would expect one of the sitting conservative councillors to retain. The Eastwood seat may well be vulnerable to the Ashfield Independents

Rushcliffe- some closer fights but i suspect no change in seats

Gedling - This saw some close battles last time with Labour hold on in a number of them by small majorities. They have a much stronger ground game here and I would expect them to hold most if not all of them

Ashfield- This will be fascinating- a betting man may go for a clean sweep by the Ashfield Independents - and this may come to pass, however there are signs of the shine coming off them in recent months with two councillors fined for delivering during lock down and one facing charges in court. Selston may see an independent gain ( from Ashfield Independents) Hucknall West may see a Conservative hold with the other two Hucknall seats likely to go to the Ashfield Independents

Newark - will see close battles in the two town seats and for the independent held Collingham division. I do however expect no change if the independent stands again

Mansfield - This will be an acid test of the change in this area. It may be that this follows through to significant conservative gains, or it may see a fight back from Labour who will have the advantage of a stronger ground operation. I believe the Mansfield Independents are on the wane and may be eclipsed by the tories but this remains to be seen

Bassetlaw - My instinct again is that we will see close results in Retford with Labour improved national position putting them in contention. The other divisions look like staying with the status quo however the significant swing in the parliamentary seat in 2019 may produce a surprise

Overall I would expect the Conservatives to remain the largest party but looking to build a coalition with others. A rainbow coalition cannot be ruled out but I don’t see the Ashfield Independents being a trusted partner by either of the big parties.

[simonb]

I understand that Ben Bradley MP will contest the Mansfield North Division for the Conservatives

[unrepentantfool]

Apr 2, 2021 17:48:53 GMT simonb said:

I understand that Ben Bradley MP will contest the Mansfield North Division for the Conservatives

Why would he want to double-hat? Is he stepping down?

[edinburghtory]

Apr 2, 2021 17:48:53 GMT simonb said:

I understand that Ben Bradley MP will contest the Mansfield North Division for the Conservatives

Announced on his Facebook certainly an interesting decision and I can understand some of his logic and sense of frustration.

[simonb]

This is a two member Division Labour took by a few hundred votes last time with UKIP polling just over 1000 votes. The results in Mansfield, Worksop and the Sherwood area will determine control of the council.

[unrepentantfool]

Apr 2, 2021 21:48:46 GMT simonb said:

This is a two member Division Labour took by a few hundred votes last time with UKIP polling just over 1000 votes. The results in Mansfield, Worksop and the Sherwood area will determine control of the council.

Surely they have other good, well-known candidates in Notts though?

[simonb]

I think the truth of the matter is no they don’t and he is the recognised face of the brand locally. It’s a factor of the current political landscape that we have here a seat held by the Conservatives with a 16k majority where they have no history in local government and a relatively small local organisation

I am not a fan of two member Divisions at county level but I suspect the strategy is to try to drag his running mate over the line on his coat tails.

[jm]

SOPN (Newark and Sherwood)
10 seats
www.newark-sherwooddc.gov.uk/mayelections2021/


Con 10
Lab 9
Green 9
LD 6
Ind 4
Reform UK 2
Heritage Party 2
Freedom Alliance No Lockdowns No Curfews 2

Balderton - Lab, Con, LD, Green, Reform UK, Heritage Party

Blidworth - Lab, Con, Green, Ind

Collingham - Con, Ind, Green

Farndon and Trent - Lab, Con, LD, Green, Reform UK, Heritage Party

Muskham and Farnsfield - Lab, Con, LD, Green

Newark East - Lab, Con, Green


Newark West - Lab, Con, LD, Green, Ind

Ollerton - Lab, Con, LD, Green, Ind

Sherwood Forest - Lab, Con, Green, Freedom Alliance No Lockdowns No Curfews

Southwell - Lab, Con, LD, Freedom Alliance No Lockdowns No Curfews

[greenhert]

Rather fitting that a candidate using the description "Freedom Alliance No Lockdowns No Curfews" would stand in the forest most famous for legendary outlaw Robin Hood.

[jm]

SOPN (Mansfield)
www.mansfield.gov.uk/downloads/file/1853/county-statement-of-persons-nominated

9 seats

Con 9
Lab 9
Mansfield Ind 8
Ind 7
TUSC 7
LD 2
Reform UK 1
Socialist Labour 1
Alliance for Democracy and Freedom 1
Green 1

Warsop (1)
Con, Lab, Ind, TUSC

Mansfield North (2)
2x Mansfield Ind, 2x Con, 2x Lab, 1x Reform UK, 2x TUSC, 1x Alliance for Democracy and Freedom, 1x Green

Mansfield East (2)
2x Mansfield Ind, 2x Con, 2x Lab, 1x Socialist Labour, 1x TUSC, 1x Ind

Mansfield South (2)
2x Mansfield Ind, 2x Con, 2x Lab, 2x LD, 3x Ind, 1x TUSC

Mansfield West (2)
2x Mansfield Ind, 2x Con, 2x Lab, 2x Ind, 2x TUSC

[jm]

SOPN (Rushcliffe)

www.rushcliffe.gov.uk/elections/elections2021/#NCC%20SPN



10 seats

Con 10
Lab 9
Green 9
LD 9
Reform UK 2
Christian Peoples Alliance 1
Ind 1


Bingham East (1) - Con, Ind, Green, Reform UK, Christian Peoples Alliance

Bingham West (1) - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK

Cotgrave (1) - Con, Lab, LD, Green

Keyworth (1) - Con, Lab, LD, Green

Leake & Ruddington (2) - 2x Con, 2x Lab Co-op, 2x LD, 1x Green

Radcliffe on Trent (1) - Con, Lab, LD, Green

West Bridgford North (1) - Con, Lab, LD, Green

West Bridgford South (1) - Con, Lab, LD, Green

West Bridgford West (1) - Con, Lab, LD, Green