2017 result: Con 51 LD 18 Lab 9
Subsequently two seats have changed hands in by-elections. Three Rivers Rural was gained by the Lib Dems from the Conservatives and St Albans North by Labour from the Lib Dems. The Labour councillor elected then has subsequently gone Independent as (more recently) has the Conservative councillor in All Saints (Hertford)
So current composition is Con 49 LD 18 Lab 9 Ind 2
A bit early for detailed predictions but worth a summary of the seats to look out for, starting in the East of the county (may be worth referring back to summaries for previous elections here
vote-2012.proboards.com/post/484508/thread and here
vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/529/hertfordshire?page=2 )
Broxbourne The usual score – all six seats currently held by the Conservatives as has been the case since 1997. Of these only
Waltham Cross has ever been competitive (notwithstanding the fleeting UKIP strength in Hoddesdon). Even this has only been won twice by Labour in the last half-century – in 1973 and 1993 – and the Conservatives enjoyed a majority of over 500 or 16.7% at the 2017 elections so it remains something of a long-shot. I do get the impression that the demographics are trending somewhat in Labour’s favour here but it’s a slow process and this division has also had a bit of a tendency to swing against the tide. Waltham Cross ward itself is a usually reliable Labour ward on the borough council but is typically outvoted by the areas of South Cheshunt included in the county division. On current polling I’d say this is a tough ask for Labour but if they’re back to neck and neck in the polls by May they would have a decent chance here.
The other five seats are all safely Conservative – all were around 60% or more Conservative at the last elections. I always point out in these surveys that the Lib Dems have a habit of springing a surprise gain from nowhere somewhere in Hertfordshire at each election, but I wouldn’t tend to look here for a likely candidate. I will just note though that that party (having been almost absent from local elections for many years) put in some decent performances in the 2019 borough elections, most notably in Goffs Oak where they got 36% of the vote. If Goffs Oak & Bury Green is in play then a) the Conservatives can give up on winning a majority and b) I might as well give up on making predictions, but I do hope the Tories are never too complacent in places like this.
East Hertfordshire Not much less monolithic than Broxbourne in recent years – East Herts has returned a full slate of (10) Conservative councillors in all county council elections this century. As mentioned above, one of these now sits as an Independent, apparently due to having been deselected. He in fact won his seat (
All Saints in Hertford) in 2013 by gaining it – quite narrowly - from the previous Conservative councillor who was standing as an Independent. I would expect a repeat of that result should the incumbent stand again. This is the weaker part of Hertford for Labour. It used to be quite a good area for the Lib Dems, but they have long since faded and the Greens did best of the opposition parties in the 2019 local elections. All this suggests a divided opposition allowing a comfortable Conservative re-gain.
The other half of Hertford, the
St Andrews division is the only one in this district which Labour have won or ever been competitive. They held it indeed continuously from 1981 to 2001 but having lost it then they have fallen far behind. They showed signs of recovery in the 2019 local elections, winning back the Sele ward that they hadn’t won since the 90s but even so this would have been outvoted by the Castle ward and the 2019 local elections are not likely to be a particularly good guide to these given the very different circumstances pertaining then. In fact, based on those results the Greens would have made this seat a three-way marginal, but those results flatter them and if anything, really point to the likelihood of a comfortable Conservative hold against a splintered opposition.
The one obviously marginal seat here is in
Bishops Stortford East where the Lib Dems advanced to within 100 votes of winning in 2017 and where in 2019, they were well ahead in the two component wards. As I say I’d be wary of over-reading the 2019 results as the Conservatives are in an apparently much stronger position now than then, but it does show at least a decent level of organisation in the area, so you’d have to say this is a likely toss-up again as it has been before.
Nowhere else should present any problems. The Ware seats also benefit from no obvious single challenger (the Lib Dems used to be strong in Ware and again the Greens took on this mantle in 2019) as well as the fact that both seats contain strongly Tory rural areas.
The rural divisions themselves are overwhelmingly safe for the Conservatives. I did mention in a previous year about a possible challenge in
Sawbridgeworth due to controversies about local developments but that came to precisely zero. The 2019 results did show some challenges within the component wards by various parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Independents) but it seems harder to establish a clear challenge across the larger area and again the circumstances differ now. You can never rule out a freak result, but the Conservatives should really be able to count on 9 of the 10 divisions here (and if they can’t their majority in the county is in severe danger) while a full slate again would hardly be a shock.
North Hertfordshire This district clearly presents more challenges for the Conservatives than the two previously discussed. In 2017 the Conservatives won 7 of the 9 seats here with Labour and the Lib Dems winning one each. There are three close contests based on the 2017 results:
Hitchin South which was a narrow Conservative hold over the Lib Dems (coming from fourth place previously),
Letchworth North which was a narrow Conservative gain from Labour and
Royston West & Rural which was a narrow (notional) Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives.
The Conservatives have had a wretched set of local election results here subsequently, losing seats in all parts of the district (urban and rural) and losing control of the council which does not bode well for them in any of these seats.
Royston West & Rural and its predecessor division of North Herts Rural, with a touch of the South Cambridgeshire demographic to it, has long been a close fought seat between Conservatives and Lib Dems and can swing against the tide. The Lib Dems have certainly had the best of the recent district elections in this area though, gaining the Royston Heath and Arbury wards to add to their longstanding and massive strength in Weston & Sandon. So, you’d expect the Lib Dems to hold on comfortably here.
Hitchin South has also seen strong Lib Dem performances in district elections – it comprises the traditionally marginal Highbury ward and the safe Conservative Priory ward but on recent form Priory is looking more marginal and Highbury is safe Lib Dem. Also considering the strong Lib Dem vote in the parliamentary seat in 2019 and that there is still a sizeable Labour and Green vote to squeeze, I would be surprised if the Lib Dems don’t gain this.
Letchworth North is a little more unpredictable. Certainly, this is a seat which should be Labour in an even year and which they would only lose in disastrous years (2009 and 2017). The major element though is the Grange ward which is one place the Conservatives have done well even as they’ve suffered disaster elsewhere – they held it quite comfortably in 2019 even while losing ostensibly safe wards elsewhere in Letchworth. This area is of a type – Brexity, ‘White working class’ council estate, with strong performances at times by parties like UKIP and the English Democrats. Nevertheless, the division also includes Wilbury and parts of Letchworth East which have been much more reliable for Labour and this ought to be a routine gain for them.
The remaining six divisions should be safe for their respective parties with
Hitchin North having become one of Labour’s safest seats in the county and the other five being safely (but not overwhelmingly) Conservative.
Baldock & Letchworth East and
Hitchin Rural (formerly Offa) have both been Labour in the past but seem reliably Conservative now – Baldock is an area where the Conservatives have held up much more robustly than elsewhere and clearly outvotes the smaller Labour inclined section in Letchworth East. Likewise, the rural areas of Hitchin Rural can be counted on to outvote the solidly Labour Oughton ward of Hitchin.
Letchworth South has been one of the Conservatives’ disaster areas in recent local elections, as they lost the South East ward to Labour in both 2018 and 2019 (by 8 and 13 votes) and lost South West to the Lib Dems on the toss of a coin in 2019. Still the Conservatives would have been well ahead on aggregate in this division, and it seems very unlikely that enough of the opposition vote would unite behind one party to challenge them here – if they did it would most likely be the Lib Dems, who won this seat in 1985 and 1993 but this feels unlikely.
The other two divisions should not present any problem. Knebworth itself has fallen to the Lib Dems in recent local elections but the division includes Codicote and other strongly Conservative rural areas. Likewise, Royston East & Ermine is not overwhelmingly safe but it’s difficult to see a Lib Dem challenge emerging when their better part of Royston is in a seat which they need to concentrate on holding.
So, the likely outcome here is that the opposition parties will take their respective low-hanging fruit, each doubling their representation in this district and taking the total to 5 Con 2 Lab 2 LD
StevenageThe default position is for Stevenage to elect no Conservative county councillors. In the 12 elections since reorganisation in the 1970s, only three have seen the Conservatives win seats in Stevenage – 1977 (when they won every seat), 2009 and 2017 (on each occasion winning three of six). In 2017 they were 15 votes away from winning a fourth making Old Stevenage the most marginal seat in the county based on the previous results. The three Conservative held seats may be crucial in the control of county hall given that only twelve losses would deprive them of a majority – a quarter of those could occur here. Based on the 2017 result, the ‘safest’ of these is
Broadwater on the southern edge of town comprising the wards of Longmeadow and Roebuck. Longmeadow has been trending steadily and significantly to the Tories in recent years and they now hold all the seats on the borough council there, whereas Roebuck is much more solid (but not overwhelming) for Labour.
St Nicholas in the North is technically more marginal, but I would argue is fundamentally a better division for the Conservatives than Broadwater (there may have been an incumbency affect in St Nicholas and a significant vote was taken by a UKIP candidate). St Nicholas now contains the whole of the Woodfield ward which is the most solidly and consistently Conservative ward in Stevenage. It is balanced by Labour voting St Nicholas itself and parts of the marginal Martin’s Wood. Both seats are likely to be close and unpredictable on current polling.
The third Conservative held seat,
Shephall is almost sure to be a Labour gain. This was one of the most shocking results of the 2017 elections. Shephall had always been one of Labour’s safest seats in Hertfordshire – one of only three they won in 2009. It’s difficult to fathom how the Conservatives won it then and equally difficult to imagine them holding it. Still, they did, so technically could do so again.
Of the three remaining seats,
Chells is safe for the Lib Dems and
Bedwell very safe for Labour. If the Conservatives were to do even better vis a vis Labour than in 2017, obviously
Old Stevenage would be in play, but really Labour should be expecting to make gains here rather than losses and fewer than two gains would I think be poor for them. It is almost all to play for here though – a tiny uniform swing against Labour would see them reduced to one seat whereas a modest swing in their favour could see them win five.
Welwyn HatfieldThis is the first district to be considered here where the Conservatives have fewer than half the seats. That itself illustrates that the result here last time was relatively poor but that is not to say it cannot get worse, though there are a few potential gains here for the Tories.
As in North Hertfordshire, subsequent borough election results have been pretty shocking for the Conservatives, especially in Welwyn Garden City and this does not seem to portend a strong result here in May.
The 2017 score was Con 3 LD 3 Lab 2 with the Lib Dems coming from nowhere to gain the
Haldens division from the Conservatives. That was a narrow victory but has been followed up with several more gains at the district level in wards in this area and the precedent provided by the other two Lib Dem seats in this borough (and similar seats elsewhere like Chells and Hemel St Pauls) is that the initial gain is consolidated at the following election. Therefore, I don’t hold out any prospect of a Conservative gain here.
The two Labour seats are marginal on paper also, but I wouldn’t rate the chances of gains there likely either.
Welwyn Garden City South has a majority of less than 100 but is really the sort of seat the Conservatives should have won in 2017 – they didn’t win it then I don’t see them doing it now. Labour have comfortably won all the recent contests in the component wards.
Hatfield North is similar as a seat that the Conservatives might have won in 2017. It combines the marginal Conservative Hatfield Villages ward (less the strong Conservative area of Ellenbrook) with the safe Labour ward of Hatfield Central. As such it’s a seat that can usually be counted on to give Labour a lead and there’s no reason to think it will be different this year.
As already indicated, the two more established Lib Dem seat in
Hatfield South and
Handside & Peartree look invulnerable.
That leaves the remaining three Conservative seats to consider. Of these the main area of interest is
Hatfield East. This was a newly reconstituted seat for the 2017 elections and was only narrowly won then by the Conservatives over Labour. The greater part of this division corresponds to the Hatfield East district ward which has usually been reliably Conservative but is becoming more marginal with the Lib Dems making it close three ways in 2019. Added to this is a large chunk of Hatfield South West – a safe Labour ward which also has a growing Lib Dem vote (also a small, grotty part of Hatfield Central). As such this is clearly a tricky seat for the Conservatives to hold and given that at the last two sets of county elections the Lib Dems have come from ‘nowhere’ to take a seat in this borough, I should not be surprised to see them challenge here as well as Labour. Cliched it may be but really anything could happen here, though if I had to call it, I’d maybe say most likely a Labour gain.
Hell will freeze over before the Conservatives lose
Hatfield Rural, one of the safest electorates for that party in the country. I would have said the same for
Welwyn in the past too, but I’d note that the Lib Dems got around 30% of the vote in the two Welwyn wards at the 2019 borough elections and the division additionally includes about half the Sherrards ward which has moved from safe Tory to safe Lib Dem in short order. Given what I’ve already said about the propensity of the Lib Dems to gain seats from nowhere in this borough, I should hope the Conservatives are on their guard here.
