Hampshire

[Admin Twaddleford]

Hampshire

[peterl]

2017 results*:
*Boundary changes occured at this election.

Conservative 56 (+11)
Lib Dems 19 (+2)
Labour 2 (-2)
Community Campaign Hart 1 (-)

Divisions with a majority of less than 200 votes:

Aldershot South - 3 votes - Conservative over Labour
Tadley and Baughurst - 144 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Fareham Portchester - 144 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Basingstoke North West - 157 votes - Conservative over Labour

Top three targets for each party:

Conservative:

Aldershot South - Defence - 3 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - Defence - 144 vote majority
Fareham Portchester - 145 votes to gain

Lib Dem:

Fareham Portchester - Defence - 144 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - 145 votes to gain
Hartley Wintney & Yateley West - Defence - 316 vote majority

Labour:

Aldershot South - 4 votes to gain
Basingstoke North West - 158 votes to gain
Aldershot North - 258 to gain

[neilm]

How have Community Campaign Hart been doing? They're the joint largest party on Hart DC and I think it's a coalition administration.

[unrepentantfool]

Jul 26, 2020 14:52:54 GMT peterl said:

2017 results*:
*Boundary changes occured at this election.

Conservative 56 (+11)
Lib Dems 19 (+2)
Labour 2 (-2)
Community Campaign Hart 1 (-)

Divisions with a majority of less than 200 votes:

Aldershot South - 3 votes - Conservative over Labour
Tadley and Baughurst - 144 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Fareham Portchester - 144 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Basingstoke North West - 157 votes - Conservative over Labour

Top three targets for each party:

Conservative:

Aldershot South - Defence - 3 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - Defence - 144 vote majority
Fareham Portchester - 145 votes to gain

Lib Dem:

Fareham Portchester - Defence - 144 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - 145 votes to gain
Hartley Wintney & Yateley West - Defence - 316 vote majority

Labour:

Aldershot South - 4 votes to gain
Basingstoke North West - 158 votes to gain
Aldershot North - 258 to gain

I believe Tadley and Baughurst will go Liberal this time. It's a very remainy area of Hampshire, with a lot of jobs connected to the EU nearby and the potential of distruption in the event of a no deal Brexit to one of the largest local employers (the AWE). It's also quite close to some strongly Liberal areas of West Berks council like Thatcham and Theale (only at the local level,of course.)

[bjornhattan]

Jul 30, 2020 12:08:14 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Jul 26, 2020 14:52:54 GMT peterl said:

2017 results*:
*Boundary changes occured at this election.

Conservative 56 (+11)
Lib Dems 19 (+2)
Labour 2 (-2)
Community Campaign Hart 1 (-)

Divisions with a majority of less than 200 votes:

Aldershot South - 3 votes - Conservative over Labour
Tadley and Baughurst - 144 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Fareham Portchester - 144 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Basingstoke North West - 157 votes - Conservative over Labour

Top three targets for each party:

Conservative:

Aldershot South - Defence - 3 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - Defence - 144 vote majority
Fareham Portchester - 145 votes to gain

Lib Dem:

Fareham Portchester - Defence - 144 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - 145 votes to gain
Hartley Wintney & Yateley West - Defence - 316 vote majority

Labour:

Aldershot South - 4 votes to gain
Basingstoke North West - 158 votes to gain
Aldershot North - 258 to gain

I believe Tadley and Baughurst will go Liberal this time. It's a very remainy area of Hampshire, with a lot of jobs connected to the EU nearby and the potential of distruption in the event of a no deal Brexit to one of the largest local employers (the AWE). It's also quite close to some strongly Liberal areas of West Berks council like Thatcham and Theale (only at the local level,of course.)

I wouldn't be certain about that. Basingstoke and Deane as a whole voted narrowly to Leave, and I'm fairly confident that Tadley and Baughurst would have voted to Leave - its demographics are average for the district. You also can't assume that the EU (which will be a far more niche issue once we've left) will have an impact on local voting patterns. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Lib Dem gain, but I wouldn't expect Brexit to be much of a factor - after all anyone who was passionately pro-EU would probably have switched to the Lib Dems in 2017.

[European Lefty]

Jul 30, 2020 12:08:14 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Jul 26, 2020 14:52:54 GMT peterl said:

2017 results*:
*Boundary changes occured at this election.

Conservative 56 (+11)
Lib Dems 19 (+2)
Labour 2 (-2)
Community Campaign Hart 1 (-)

Divisions with a majority of less than 200 votes:

Aldershot South - 3 votes - Conservative over Labour
Tadley and Baughurst - 144 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Fareham Portchester - 144 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Basingstoke North West - 157 votes - Conservative over Labour

Top three targets for each party:

Conservative:

Aldershot South - Defence - 3 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - Defence - 144 vote majority
Fareham Portchester - 145 votes to gain

Lib Dem:

Fareham Portchester - Defence - 144 vote majority
Tadley and Baughurst - 145 votes to gain
Hartley Wintney & Yateley West - Defence - 316 vote majority

Labour:

Aldershot South - 4 votes to gain
Basingstoke North West - 158 votes to gain
Aldershot North - 258 to gain

I believe Tadley and Baughurst will go Liberal this time. It's a very remainy area of Hampshire, with a lot of jobs connected to the EU nearby and the potential of distruption in the event of a no deal Brexit to one of the largest local employers (the AWE). It's also quite close to some strongly Liberal areas of West Berks council like Thatcham and Theale (only at the local level,of course.)

Brexit is going to have virtually zero impact anywhere that actually has elections. It may have been different had we had elections this May (of course county coincils wouldn't have done anyway), but at over a year's distance it's going to be almost irrelevant.

[unrepentantfool]

Jul 30, 2020 13:35:15 GMT European Lefty said:

Jul 30, 2020 12:08:14 GMT unrepentantfool said:

I believe Tadley and Baughurst will go Liberal this time. It's a very remainy area of Hampshire, with a lot of jobs connected to the EU nearby and the potential of distruption in the event of a no deal Brexit to one of the largest local employers (the AWE). It's also quite close to some strongly Liberal areas of West Berks council like Thatcham and Theale (only at the local level,of course.)

Brexit is going to have virtually zero impact anywhere that actually has elections. It may have been different had we had elections this May (of course county coincils wouldn't have done anyway), but at over a year's distance it's going to be almost irrelevant.

Let's see what happens if the AWE (which does privately funded research) loses work in inevitable recession after Brexit or even the economic effect of the coronavirus. Also,we have no native supplies of uranium,which makes the production of nuclear warheads something that is incredibly vulnerable to trade distruption after a no deal Brexit or similar events. In that scenario,there would be massive job losses at AWE,which would be a big issue for Tadley especially.

[European Lefty]

Jul 30, 2020 14:13:31 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Jul 30, 2020 13:35:15 GMT European Lefty said:

Brexit is going to have virtually zero impact anywhere that actually has elections. It may have been different had we had elections this May (of course county coincils wouldn't have done anyway), but at over a year's distance it's going to be almost irrelevant.

Let's see what happens if the AWE (which does privately funded research) loses work in inevitable recession after Brexit or even the economic effect of the coronavirus. Also,we have no native supplies of uranium,which makes the production of nuclear warheads something that is incredibly vulnerable to trade distruption after a no deal Brexit or similar events. In that scenario,there would be massive job losses at AWE,which would be a big issue for Tadley especially.

Easy: BoJo blames it on coronavirus and most of the population goes along with it. Or he blames the EU, and most of the population goes along with it, in which case although Brexit might have an impact it's unlikely to favour the LibDems.

[unrepentantfool]

Jul 30, 2020 13:31:38 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jul 30, 2020 12:08:14 GMT unrepentantfool said:

I believe Tadley and Baughurst will go Liberal this time. It's a very remainy area of Hampshire, with a lot of jobs connected to the EU nearby and the potential of distruption in the event of a no deal Brexit to one of the largest local employers (the AWE). It's also quite close to some strongly Liberal areas of West Berks council like Thatcham and Theale (only at the local level,of course.)

I wouldn't be certain about that. Basingstoke and Deane as a whole voted narrowly to Leave, and I'm fairly confident that Tadley and Baughurst would have voted to Leave - its demographics are average for the district. You also can't assume that the EU (which will be a far more niche issue once we've left) will have an impact on local voting patterns. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Lib Dem gain, but I wouldn't expect Brexit to be much of a factor - after all anyone who was passionately pro-EU would probably have switched to the Lib Dems in 2017.

Then you don't know Basingstoke and Deane very well. Basingstoke itself was very strongly leave because of the heavily white working class demographics,which will skew the Leave percentage in the district. In contrast, Tadley parish, which covers most of the county ward, has only 18 percent with no qualifications. It is also above the national average for Level 4 qualifications and has high percentages for public administration and defence (indicating a large percentage of the workforce works at the AWE). It's a highly educated,richer than average part of Basingstoke and Deane. Finally, I know this is anecdotal, but I know several Remainer Tories who live in the ward,who continued to vote Conservative reluctantly because they were afraid of splitting the vote and letting in an MP who might support a Corbyn government,which would affect the future of the AWE site. This situation has,of course,changed.

[unrepentantfool]

Jul 30, 2020 14:33:15 GMT European Lefty said:

Jul 30, 2020 14:13:31 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Let's see what happens if the AWE (which does privately funded research) loses work in inevitable recession after Brexit or even the economic effect of the coronavirus. Also,we have no native supplies of uranium,which makes the production of nuclear warheads something that is incredibly vulnerable to trade distruption after a no deal Brexit or similar events. In that scenario,there would be massive job losses at AWE,which would be a big issue for Tadley especially.

Easy: BoJo blames it on coronavirus and most of the population goes along with it. Or he blames the EU, and most of the population goes along with it, in which case although Brexit might have an impact it's unlikely to favour the LibDems.

I don't think people will accept that explanation because there will be lots of unemployed and frustrated people in either scenario. They''ll want to vent their anger at someone and BoJo has made himself the figurehead of the government coronavirus response and Brexit. Boris better be praying for a second wave,because people will be asking lots of questions after the wave of a mood of national unity ends.

[bjornhattan]

Jul 30, 2020 14:50:20 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Jul 30, 2020 13:31:38 GMT bjornhattan said:

I wouldn't be certain about that. Basingstoke and Deane as a whole voted narrowly to Leave, and I'm fairly confident that Tadley and Baughurst would have voted to Leave - its demographics are average for the district. You also can't assume that the EU (which will be a far more niche issue once we've left) will have an impact on local voting patterns. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Lib Dem gain, but I wouldn't expect Brexit to be much of a factor - after all anyone who was passionately pro-EU would probably have switched to the Lib Dems in 2017.

Then you don't know Basingstoke and Deane very well. Basingstoke itself was very strongly leave because of the heavily white working class demographics,which will skew the Leave percentage in the district. In contrast, Tadley parish, which covers most of the county ward, has only 18 percent with no qualifications. It is also above the national average for Level 4 qualifications and has high percentages for public administration and defence (indicating a large percentage of the workforce works at the AWE). It's a highly educated,richer than average part of Basingstoke and Deane. Finally, I know this is anecdotal, but I know several Remainer Torres who live in the ward,who continued to vote Conservative reluctantly because they were afraid of splitting the vote and letting in an MP who might support a Corbyn government,which would affect the future of the AWE site. This situation has,of course,changed.

Basingstoke itself won't have been that strongly Leave - for every working class estate in the town there are affluent commuter belt new builds like those at Hatch Warren. Most estimates put the Leave vote there at 53-54%, which seems about right, and would mean the rest of the district was 50/50. I'd suggest that the remain vote would have been concentrated on the likes of Bramley and other commuter villages, and not Tadley.

Two of the best predictors of a Leave vote - namely national identity and proportion without a passport - both point to above average Leave votes in Tadley. Look at the proportion identifying as English (rather than British) for example - the higher this is the more people likely voted Leave. For the district this figure is 62% - in the Tadley wards it is 65-67%, pointing to a Leave vote higher than the 52% district figure. While AWE will have made an impact, it would have to have been very large, and it certainly won't have been enough to make Tadley strongly Remain, only marginally so. You have the better local knowledge here, and these little idiosyncrasies will be important in deciding who wins the division, but I don't think it's fair to say Remain will win it for the Lib Dems.

[alien8ted]

The little virus social and economic consequences will have a bigger impact on peoples votes everywhere going forward than any economic impact of Brexit. Though the little virus's impact on votes will only be similar to peoples stance on Brexit, which will still impact on votes, its economic cosequences whatever they are, are going to get lost in the wash.

[unrepentantfool]

Jul 30, 2020 15:09:23 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jul 30, 2020 14:50:20 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Then you don't know Basingstoke and Deane very well. Basingstoke itself was very strongly leave because of the heavily white working class demographics,which will skew the Leave percentage in the district. In contrast, Tadley parish, which covers most of the county ward, has only 18 percent with no qualifications. It is also above the national average for Level 4 qualifications and has high percentages for public administration and defence (indicating a large percentage of the workforce works at the AWE). It's a highly educated,richer than average part of Basingstoke and Deane. Finally, I know this is anecdotal, but I know several Remainer Torres who live in the ward,who continued to vote Conservative reluctantly because they were afraid of splitting the vote and letting in an MP who might support a Corbyn government,which would affect the future of the AWE site. This situation has,of course,changed.

Basingstoke itself won't have been that strongly Leave - for every working class estate in the town there are affluent commuter belt new builds like those at Hatch Warren. Most estimates put the Leave vote there at 53-54%, which seems about right, and would mean the rest of the district was 50/50. I'd suggest that the remain vote would have been concentrated on the likes of Bramley and other commuter villages, and not Tadley.

Two of the best predictors of a Leave vote - namely national identity and proportion without a passport - both point to above average Leave votes in Tadley. Look at the proportion identifying as English (rather than British) for example - the higher this is the more people likely voted Leave. For the district this figure is 62% - in the Tadley wards it is 65-67%, pointing to a Leave vote higher than the 52% district figure. While AWE will have made an impact, it would have to have been very large, and it certainly won't have been enough to make Tadley strongly Remain, only marginally so. You have the better local knowledge here, and these little idiosyncrasies will be important in deciding who wins the division, but I don't think it's fair to say Remain will win it for the Lib Dems.

That's a fair appraisal, but I still believe that Brexit will be a main factor,because,as you highlighted,the high commuter population in places like Tadley and Baughurst will be more tuned into national rather than local issues. They'll still be relevant, just not as prominent as national politics. Tadley is just as commuterised as places like Bramley FYI.