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Devon
Mar 13, 2020 20:42:21 GMT
Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 13, 2020 20:42:21 GMT
Devon
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peterl
Green
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Posts: 4,299
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Post by peterl on Jul 26, 2020 14:18:28 GMT
2017 results
Conservative 42 (+4) Lib Dems 7 (-2) Labour 7 (-) Independents 3 (-) (includes 1 East Devon Independent Alliance) Green Party 1 (-) (UKIP -4)
Divisions with a majority of less than 200 votes:
Teignmouth - 22 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - 23 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem Seaton and Colyton - 42 votes - East Devon Independent Alliance over Conservative Ipplepen and The Kerswells - 85 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative Newton Abbot North - 137 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Top 3 targets for each party:
Conservative:
Teignmouth - Defence - 22 vote majority Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - Defence - 23 vote majority Seaton and Colyton - 43 votes to gain
Lib Dems:
Teignmouth - 23 votes to gain Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - 24 votes to gain Ipplepen and The Kerswells - Defence - 85 vote majority
Labour:
Pinhoe and Mincinglake - Defence - 291 vote majority Wonford and St. Loyes - Defence - 308 vote majority Bideford East - 313 votes to gain
Green:
Totnes and Dartington - Defence - 220 vote majority Ilfracombe - 352 votes to gain No other division was close
East Devon Independent Alliance:
Seaton and Colyton - Defence - 42 vote majority Axminster - 420 votes to gain Sidmouth - 482 to gain
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Post by andykernow on Jan 3, 2021 10:59:15 GMT
Looking at Devon, one thing is for certain, the Tories would have to implode to lose their majority - but looking at possible changes I would say for the opposition parties, the Lib Dems will be tilting at places like Ashburton & Buckfastleigh, Barnstaple South, Braunton Rural, Teignmouth and Tiverton to put a dent in the Conservative total, while for Labour Bideford East seems the only seat where they could make a gain (the seat was won with less than 30% of the vote last time with also the Indies looking at it).
The greens will be looking to hold their win in Totnes and to see whether they could make inroads in Ilfracombe where they came a good second last time. Two Indies seem to have solid majorities in Fremington Rural and Otter Valley while the East Devon Alliance will be looking to hold Seaton and Colyton and maybe pick up Sidmouth. However, a good Conservative vote could see Boris's troups make further gains in places like LD seats of Crediton, Newton Abbot North and Ipplepen and The Kerswells where they hold slim majorities, and two Exeter Labour held marginals in Alphington & Cowick and Pinhoe & Mincinglake.
However, even if the 17 most likely seats changed hands the Tories would still have a comfortable majority. To wrest control the Lib Dems would need to see victories in places like Bovey Rural, Broadclyst, Chudleigh, Cullompton, Dawlish and Exmouth where Conservative majorities range from 400 to almost 1,000). No small project for anyone!
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Devon
Jan 3, 2021 11:13:19 GMT
Post by Foggy on Jan 3, 2021 11:13:19 GMT
I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.
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Devon
Jan 3, 2021 11:17:07 GMT
Post by andykernow on Jan 3, 2021 11:17:07 GMT
I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it. Thanks Foggy, updated
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Foggy
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Devon
Jan 3, 2021 11:23:55 GMT
Post by Foggy on Jan 3, 2021 11:23:55 GMT
I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it. Thanks Foggy, updated You're welcome. Are you sure about "troups" as well? I think with the 2017 locals being such a high water mark for the Conservatives, any gains appear improbable, but it's only fair to be reminded that some Lib Dem and Labour divisions were only won very narrowly last time too. (I was in the Province of Alicante that month so didn't keep on top of all the details!)
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neilm
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Devon
Jan 3, 2021 12:23:11 GMT
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Post by neilm on Jan 3, 2021 12:23:11 GMT
Ilfracombe was won by a Green with an independent label before, in 1997 (like Roger Giles in Ottery). I can't remember his name off hand, maybe A G Withers? May have been in a wheelchair at one point. It reverted to Conservative when Lyn Gear won a by election in 1999. I think it unlikely that an overt Green would win unless they reined in all the stuff that makes the Greens unattractive and if they did win they'd be making gains elsewhere.
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finsobruce
Labour
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Posts: 31,169
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Devon
Jan 3, 2021 12:35:55 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Jan 3, 2021 12:35:55 GMT
Ilfracombe was won by a Green with an independent label before, in 1997 (like Roger Giles in Ottery). I can't remember his name off hand, maybe A G Withers? May have been in a wheelchair at one point. It reverted to Conservative when Lyn Gear won a by election in 1999. I think it unlikely that an overt Green would win unless they reined in all the stuff that makes the Greens unattractive and if they did win they'd be making gains elsewhere.
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neilm
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Devon
Jan 3, 2021 20:06:12 GMT
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Post by neilm on Jan 3, 2021 20:06:12 GMT
My memory might be playing tricks on me. Lyn Gear was the exec member for health and social care following the 2001 election (the dreadful multi party coalition one) but she resigned mid-term to be replaced by John Clatworthy, who was elected in a 1999 by-election so Gear must have been elected in 1998 if Withers moved away in 1997.
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