Devon

[Admin Twaddleford]

Devon

[peterl]

2017 results

Conservative 42 (+4)
Lib Dems 7 (-2)
Labour 7 (-)
Independents 3 (-) (includes 1 East Devon Independent Alliance)
Green Party 1 (-)
(UKIP -4)

Divisions with a majority of less than 200 votes:

Teignmouth - 22 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - 23 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Seaton and Colyton - 42 votes - East Devon Independent Alliance over Conservative
Ipplepen and The Kerswells - 85 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Newton Abbot North - 137 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative

Top 3 targets for each party:

Conservative:

Teignmouth - Defence - 22 vote majority
Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - Defence - 23 vote majority
Seaton and Colyton - 43 votes to gain

Lib Dems:

Teignmouth - 23 votes to gain
Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - 24 votes to gain
Ipplepen and The Kerswells - Defence - 85 vote majority

Labour:

Pinhoe and Mincinglake - Defence - 291 vote majority
Wonford and St. Loyes - Defence - 308 vote majority
Bideford East - 313 votes to gain

Green:

Totnes and Dartington - Defence - 220 vote majority
Ilfracombe - 352 votes to gain
No other division was close

East Devon Independent Alliance:

Seaton and Colyton - Defence - 42 vote majority
Axminster - 420 votes to gain
Sidmouth - 482 to gain

[andykernow]

Looking at Devon, one thing is for certain, the Tories would have to implode to lose their majority - but looking at possible changes I would say for the opposition parties, the Lib Dems will be tilting at places like Ashburton & Buckfastleigh, Barnstaple South, Braunton Rural, Teignmouth and Tiverton to put a dent in the Conservative total, while for Labour Bideford East seems the only seat where they could make a gain (the seat was won with less than 30% of the vote last time with also the Indies looking at it).

The greens will be looking to hold their win in Totnes and to see whether they could make inroads in Ilfracombe where they came a good second last time. Two Indies seem to have solid majorities in Fremington Rural and Otter Valley while the East Devon Alliance will be looking to hold Seaton and Colyton and maybe pick up Sidmouth. However, a good Conservative vote could see Boris's troups make further gains in places like LD seats of Crediton, Newton Abbot North and Ipplepen and The Kerswells where they hold slim majorities, and two Exeter Labour held marginals in Alphington & Cowick and Pinhoe & Mincinglake.

However, even if the 17 most likely seats changed hands the Tories would still have a comfortable majority. To wrest control the Lib Dems would need to see victories in places like Bovey Rural, Broadclyst, Chudleigh, Cullompton, Dawlish and Exmouth where Conservative majorities range from 400 to almost 1,000). No small project for anyone!

[Foggy]

I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.

[andykernow]

Jan 3, 2021 11:13:19 GMT Foggy said:

I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.

Thanks Foggy, updated 

[Foggy]

Jan 3, 2021 11:17:07 GMT andykernow said:

Jan 3, 2021 11:13:19 GMT Foggy said:

I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.

Thanks Foggy, updated 

You're welcome. Are you sure about "troups" as well? 

I think with the 2017 locals being such a high water mark for the Conservatives, any gains appear improbable, but it's only fair to be reminded that some Lib Dem and Labour divisions were only won very narrowly last time too. (I was in the Province of Alicante that month so didn't keep on top of all the details!)

[neilm]

Ilfracombe was won by a Green with an independent label before, in 1997 (like Roger Giles in Ottery). I can't remember his name off hand, maybe A G Withers? May have been in a wheelchair at one point. It reverted to Conservative when Lyn Gear won a by election in 1999. I think it unlikely that an overt Green would win unless they reined in all the stuff that makes the Greens unattractive and if they did win they'd be making gains elsewhere.

[finsobruce]

Jan 3, 2021 12:23:11 GMT neilm said:

Ilfracombe was won by a Green with an independent label before, in 1997 (like Roger Giles in Ottery). I can't remember his name off hand, maybe A G Withers? May have been in a wheelchair at one point. It reverted to Conservative when Lyn Gear won a by election in 1999. I think it unlikely that an overt Green would win unless they reined in all the stuff that makes the Greens unattractive and if they did win they'd be making gains elsewhere.

According to this blog post he moved to Derby to find accommodation that was suitable for his MS : www.halton96th.co.uk/tonywithers.html

[neilm]

My memory might be playing tricks on me. Lyn Gear was the exec member for health and social care following the 2001 election (the dreadful multi party coalition one) but she resigned mid-term to be replaced by John Clatworthy, who was elected in a 1999 by-election so Gear must have been elected in 1998 if Withers moved away in 1997.

[andrewp]

I think there is potential for the Conservative majority to fall a bit from its current 24 here.

In East Devon district they are defending 9 out of 11 divisions. The two in Exmouth are Defitnely vulnerable to the Lib Dem’s, and any of the other 7 could be vulnerable if the East Devon Alliance stand and have good candidates or there are other popular Independents.

One of the 2 Conservative divisions in Exeter- Duryard and Pennsylvania looks a tough defence for them, and they crept home in a couple of the Teignbridge divisions against the Lib Dem’s last time - by 23 votes in Ashburton and Buckfastleigh and 22 votes in Teignmouth.

It’s possible that even on a decent night nationally, they could lose 6-8 seats here.

[john07]

Jan 3, 2021 11:13:19 GMT Foggy said:

I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.

Quality pedantry.

[greenhert]

Mar 13, 2021 17:55:01 GMT andrewp said:

I think there is potential for the Conservative majority to fall a bit from its current 24 here.

In East Devon district they are defending 9 out of 11 divisions. The two in Exmouth are Defitnely vulnerable to the Lib Dem’s, and any of the other 7 could be vulnerable if the East Devon Alliance stand and have good candidates or there are other popular Independents.

One of the 2 Conservative divisions in Exeter- Duryard and Pennsylvania looks a tough defence for them, and they crept home in a couple of the Teignbridge divisions against the Lib Dem’s last time - by 23 votes in Ashburton and Buckfastleigh and 22 votes in Teignmouth.

It’s possible that even on a decent night nationally, they could lose 6-8 seats here.

The Liberal Democrats are not performing that well at the moment, though, and certainly not outside the urban/suburban middle-class areas. 

[peterl]

It seems to me the Lib Dems are up and down like a yo-yo. Great in the 2019 locals, poor in the general, with of course little data since. I wouldn't really be suprised to see them do fantastically, appallingly, or anything in between.

[peterl]

Some Green candidates I've been able to track down

Mid Devon Divisions

Trevor Cope, as "experienced councillor", will stand in Tiverton West.
Hannah Watson Cullompton & Bradninch
Adam Rich Willand & Uffculme - Both Watson and Rich are involved in something called the New Economy Center, which is some sort of social justice orientated training provider
Paul Edwards Creedy, Taw & Mid Exe, Retired, formerly a "Community Development Worker"

West Devon Divisions

Lynn Daniel Hatherleigh and Chagford, currently a district councillor
Brian Wood Okehampton Rural, Chair of Okehampton Hamlets Parish Council and involved in the local community transport scheme
Chris Jordan Tavistock, Parliamentary candidate on the last two occasions
Judy Maciejowska, Yelverton Rural, Retired, long standing activist

Exeter Divisions

I can't find specific info on candidates, but there is the following statement on which divisions will be contested

The Green Party will field candidates uncontested by a Liberal Democrat candidate in St David’s, Heavitree and Newtown and St Leonards wards. The Liberal Democrats will field candidates uncontested by the Green Party in Duryard and St James, Pennsylvania and St Thomas wards.

[Foggy]

Mar 29, 2021 15:29:33 GMT peterl said:

Judy Maciejowska, Yelverton Rural, Retired, long standing activist

It's about time she got a seat, then. 

[bjornhattan]

Mar 29, 2021 15:29:33 GMT peterl said:

Exeter Divisions

I can't find specific info on candidates, but there is the following statement on which divisions will be contested

The Green Party will field candidates uncontested by a Liberal Democrat candidate in St David’s, Heavitree and Newtown and St Leonards wards. The Liberal Democrats will field candidates uncontested by the Green Party in Duryard and St James, Pennsylvania and St Thomas wards.

Are those not city wards as opposed to divisions? It's still interesting that there's a pact, mind, particularly as they could put in something similar for the county.

Seeing that did get me thinking about Exeter though. How similar is the St David's city ward to its equivalent county division? Could the Greens come closer than last time in said division, given their strong result there in the last set of city elections?

[froome]

Mar 30, 2021 4:00:25 GMT Foggy said:

Mar 29, 2021 15:29:33 GMT peterl said:

Judy Maciejowska, Yelverton Rural, Retired, long standing activist

It's about time she got a seat, then. 

I think Judy would agree with you!

[peterl]

Exeter Greens now have a list of candidates up:

*Indicates also standing for city council.

Alphington & Cowick - Julyan Levy, humanities teacher*
Duryard & Pennsylvania - Rich Parker, small businessman
Exwick and St Thomas - Jamie Lynde, data analyst*
Heavitree & Whipton Barton - Lizzie Woodman, retired social worker/SEN caseworker
Pinhoe & Mincinglake - Paula Fernley, dentist
St David’s & Haven Banks - Andrew Bell, former educational consultant, press officer to Molly Scott Cato 2014-2020
Wonford & St Loyes - Jack Eade, civil engineer*
St Sidwell's & St James - Johanna Korndorfer, community development worker
Wearside & Topsham - Jonathan Mills, planning officer*

[iain]

North Devon SOPN: www.northdevon.gov.uk/council/voting-and-elections/election-results/county-elections/county-full-election-6-may-2021/
Conservative - 8
Labour - 8
Lib Dem - 8
Green - 8
Freedom Alliance - 8
Independent - 5 (Barnstaple South, Fremington Rural, South Molton, 2x Chulmleigh & Landkey)

[neilm]

South Hams have this on their website:

Notice of Election Agents (County/District) will be published at 4 p.m. on Thursday 8 AprilStatement of Persons Nominated will be published by 4 p.m. on Friday 9 April

I can't see the agents notice (I may have missed it, the mobile site is badly designed). Why not just publish them together?