Devon

[Admin Twaddleford]

Devon

[peterl]

2017 results

Conservative 42 (+4)
Lib Dems 7 (-2)
Labour 7 (-)
Independents 3 (-) (includes 1 East Devon Independent Alliance)
Green Party 1 (-)
(UKIP -4)

Divisions with a majority of less than 200 votes:

Teignmouth - 22 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - 23 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Seaton and Colyton - 42 votes - East Devon Independent Alliance over Conservative
Ipplepen and The Kerswells - 85 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Newton Abbot North - 137 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative

Top 3 targets for each party:

Conservative:

Teignmouth - Defence - 22 vote majority
Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - Defence - 23 vote majority
Seaton and Colyton - 43 votes to gain

Lib Dems:

Teignmouth - 23 votes to gain
Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - 24 votes to gain
Ipplepen and The Kerswells - Defence - 85 vote majority

Labour:

Pinhoe and Mincinglake - Defence - 291 vote majority
Wonford and St. Loyes - Defence - 308 vote majority
Bideford East - 313 votes to gain

Green:

Totnes and Dartington - Defence - 220 vote majority
Ilfracombe - 352 votes to gain
No other division was close

East Devon Independent Alliance:

Seaton and Colyton - Defence - 42 vote majority
Axminster - 420 votes to gain
Sidmouth - 482 to gain

[andykernow]

Looking at Devon, one thing is for certain, the Tories would have to implode to lose their majority - but looking at possible changes I would say for the opposition parties, the Lib Dems will be tilting at places like Ashburton & Buckfastleigh, Barnstaple South, Braunton Rural, Teignmouth and Tiverton to put a dent in the Conservative total, while for Labour Bideford East seems the only seat where they could make a gain (the seat was won with less than 30% of the vote last time with also the Indies looking at it).

The greens will be looking to hold their win in Totnes and to see whether they could make inroads in Ilfracombe where they came a good second last time. Two Indies seem to have solid majorities in Fremington Rural and Otter Valley while the East Devon Alliance will be looking to hold Seaton and Colyton and maybe pick up Sidmouth. However, a good Conservative vote could see Boris's troups make further gains in places like LD seats of Crediton, Newton Abbot North and Ipplepen and The Kerswells where they hold slim majorities, and two Exeter Labour held marginals in Alphington & Cowick and Pinhoe & Mincinglake.

However, even if the 17 most likely seats changed hands the Tories would still have a comfortable majority. To wrest control the Lib Dems would need to see victories in places like Bovey Rural, Broadclyst, Chudleigh, Cullompton, Dawlish and Exmouth where Conservative majorities range from 400 to almost 1,000). No small project for anyone!

[Foggy]

I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.

[andykernow]

Jan 3, 2021 11:13:19 GMT Foggy said:

I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.

Thanks Foggy, updated 

[Foggy]

Jan 3, 2021 11:17:07 GMT andykernow said:

Jan 3, 2021 11:13:19 GMT Foggy said:

I should think the LDs would prefer to wrest control from the Tories here, rather than rest it.

Thanks Foggy, updated 

You're welcome. Are you sure about "troups" as well? 

I think with the 2017 locals being such a high water mark for the Conservatives, any gains appear improbable, but it's only fair to be reminded that some Lib Dem and Labour divisions were only won very narrowly last time too. (I was in the Province of Alicante that month so didn't keep on top of all the details!)

[neilm]

Ilfracombe was won by a Green with an independent label before, in 1997 (like Roger Giles in Ottery). I can't remember his name off hand, maybe A G Withers? May have been in a wheelchair at one point. It reverted to Conservative when Lyn Gear won a by election in 1999. I think it unlikely that an overt Green would win unless they reined in all the stuff that makes the Greens unattractive and if they did win they'd be making gains elsewhere.

[finsobruce]

Jan 3, 2021 12:23:11 GMT neilm said:

Ilfracombe was won by a Green with an independent label before, in 1997 (like Roger Giles in Ottery). I can't remember his name off hand, maybe A G Withers? May have been in a wheelchair at one point. It reverted to Conservative when Lyn Gear won a by election in 1999. I think it unlikely that an overt Green would win unless they reined in all the stuff that makes the Greens unattractive and if they did win they'd be making gains elsewhere.

According to this blog post he moved to Derby to find accommodation that was suitable for his MS : www.halton96th.co.uk/tonywithers.html

[neilm]

My memory might be playing tricks on me. Lyn Gear was the exec member for health and social care following the 2001 election (the dreadful multi party coalition one) but she resigned mid-term to be replaced by John Clatworthy, who was elected in a 1999 by-election so Gear must have been elected in 1998 if Withers moved away in 1997.