Derbyshire

[Admin Twaddleford]

Derbyshire

[philipgraves]

I think Labour will be at least narrowly the largest party here next year. I think they will perform well in High Peak in particular, in Buxton, Whaley Bridge and Glossop and will also regain Belper.

I hope Labour does not lose any seats in North East Derbyshire.

It's also possible the Greens could pick up one or two seats based on what happened in the 2019 elections with Chapel and Hope Valley being their likeliest prospect perhaps.

[European Lefty]

Nov 28, 2020 5:13:00 GMT philipgraves said:

I think Labour will be at least narrowly the largest party here next year. I think they will perform well in High Peak in particular, in Buxton, Whaley Bridge and Glossop and will also regain Belper.

I hope Labour does not lose any seats in North East Derbyshire.

It's also possible the Greens could pick up one or two seats based on what happened in the 2019 elections with Chapel and Hope Valley being their likeliest prospect perhaps.

Our only three seats in NE Derbys are Eckington & Killamarsh and the two Clay Cross seats, so I imagine we're in real trouble if we contrive to go backwards there. D you think there's any danger of serious losses in Bolsover?

[lackeroftalent]

Nov 28, 2020 15:04:49 GMT European Lefty said:

Nov 28, 2020 5:13:00 GMT philipgraves said:

I think Labour will be at least narrowly the largest party here next year. I think they will perform well in High Peak in particular, in Buxton, Whaley Bridge and Glossop and will also regain Belper.

I hope Labour does not lose any seats in North East Derbyshire.

It's also possible the Greens could pick up one or two seats based on what happened in the 2019 elections with Chapel and Hope Valley being their likeliest prospect perhaps.

Our only three seats in NE Derbys are Eckington & Killamarsh and the two Clay Cross seats, so I imagine we're in real trouble if we contrive to go backwards there. D you think there's any danger of serious losses in Bolsover?

Labour have five of the eight seats in North East Derbyshire. Nigel Barker in Sutton Division might want a word. I would imagine retaining all five would be seen as a win by Labour.

Labour hold all six seats in Bolsover. I imagine that some number of them must be vulnerable.

Labour underperformed in Amber Valley, Erewash and South Derbyshire in 2017 losing five, four and five seats respectively. They will surely recover some, in addition to those mentioned by philipgraves in High Peak. Belper, Ilkeston East, Ilkeston West, Long Eaton, Swadlincote Central and Swadlincote South all look very winnable even given the poor general election vote for Labour last year in those areas.

Lib Dems presumably looking to recover a seat or two in Chesterfield Borough and retain Matlock.

Greens have a couple of targets in the county - best two shouts would be where they won district seats in 2019 so Duffield & Belper South and Chapel & Hope Valley.

[unrepentantfool]

Nov 28, 2020 5:13:00 GMT philipgraves said:

I think Labour will be at least narrowly the largest party here next year. I think they will perform well in High Peak in particular, in Buxton, Whaley Bridge and Glossop and will also regain Belper.

I hope Labour does not lose any seats in North East Derbyshire.

It's also possible the Greens could pick up one or two seats based on what happened in the 2019 elections with Chapel and Hope Valley being their likeliest prospect perhaps.

I agree on the High Peak, but I think they should do OK in New Mills and perhaps Buxton West on a good night as well, but defo the other Buxton seat, the Fairfield area in that seat is very different to Buxton town centre to enlighten outsiders. Glossop I'm surprised they ever lost.

[conservativeestimate]

One to watch - Bolsover and North East Derbyshire appear to be trending in the opposite direction to High Peak

[greenhert]

Dec 2, 2020 18:14:20 GMT conservativeestimate said:

One to watch - Bolsover and North East Derbyshire appear to be trending in the opposite direction to High Peak

North East Derbyshire, definitely, primarily due to an influx of commuters into Dronfield and surrounding villages. Bolsover, not so much-Labour neglected it thinking that it would continuously remain loyal to them. How wrong they were proved last year.

[jacoblamsden]

Dec 2, 2020 22:03:43 GMT greenhert said:

Dec 2, 2020 18:14:20 GMT conservativeestimate said:

One to watch - Bolsover and North East Derbyshire appear to be trending in the opposite direction to High Peak

North East Derbyshire, definitely, primarily due to an influx of commuters into Dronfield and surrounding villages. Bolsover, not so much-Labour neglected it thinking that it would continuously remain loyal to them. How wrong they were proved last year.

Of course Bolsover is trending Conservative and pretty strongly so at that - and the general consensus is that the 2019 result would have been worse had Skinner not stood. I'm convinced that the small town/rural seats the Tories finally gained in 2019 (Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Bolsover) will be among of the hardest for Labour to regain. 

[lackeroftalent]

But this is about the county council divisions.

Bolsover's results in 2017 would suggest all six seats should be safe for Labour. South Normanton & Pinxton was the most marginal with a swing of 6.75% required for the conservatives to gain it. The rest are all in double figures upwards.

Yet the general election result tells us that some number are ripe to flip. Is that movement to the Conservatives uniform across the borough or concentrated in one or two?

The 2019 Bolsover borough elections offer no clarity on the issue with sixteen independents being elected (Clowne, South Normanton and Tibshelf all saw Labour wipeouts and even Bolsover Town elected an independent alongside Labour) and only two conservatives were elected, in Barlborough. Are these independent votes going to be Conservative in 2021 or will we see independents winning in Bolsover.

Honestly, really don't know.

[Sibboleth]

The reality is that the political landscape almost certainly looks very different to how it did a year ago, although quite how isn't clear. I suspect that most people - out in the real world, that is, perhaps not on a forum of partisans - would see a vote for Labour in the Spring of 2021 as 'meaning' a very different thing to a vote for Labour in 2019. A lot of other things have changed as well. Elections are choices and when the choices change, so does everything else.

Besides, there were county council elections and a General Election in 2017, and district council elections and a General Election in 2019. All four elections, all very close together really, all rather different in this county (as elsewhere). You can try to force some order on to that chaos if you wish, but I do not really see the point.

[matureleft]

My rather dull observation, based on experience of this area (but it isn't unusual) is that the local elections will have a relatively low turnout and that the results will hinge heavily on candidate selection and local organisation. There are parts of Derbyshire where the Labour vote proportion in local elections has historically been high and organisation minimal, with very traditional candidates (often reflecting its distant industrial past). Good candidate selection by the Tories and decent organisation could produce some excellent results. These areas won't be intuitively Tory at local elections yet.

[conservativeestimate]

Brexit and Corbyn aren't on the ballot.

Normally after years in power, governing parties lose steam.

[ilerda]

Given the huge number of elections taking place on the same day in pretty much every single part of the country, these will I suspect come to be seen as some form of post-COVID midterms.

What remains to be seen is whether the electorate choose to reward the Conservatives for successfully bringing us out of the crisis, or punish them for their mistakes early on.

[Merseymike]

Dec 3, 2020 9:24:40 GMT ilerda said:

Given the huge number of elections taking place on the same day in pretty much every single part of the country, these will I suspect come to be seen as some form of post-COVID midterms.

What remains to be seen is whether the electorate choose to reward the Conservatives for successfully bringing us out of the crisis, or punish them for their mistakes early on.

But given there has been effectively bipartisan approaches, it may be far less of a consideration than some assume. I won't be voting, because that's just about the only way I can protest, as weak as that may be.

[The Bishop]

Dec 3, 2020 9:24:40 GMT ilerda said:

What remains to be seen is whether the electorate choose to reward the Conservatives for successfully bringing us out of the crisis, or punish them for their mistakes early on.

Well that's a fair amount of editorialising right there, innit. Were the vaccines created by Hancock and Johnson?

[jamie]

Important to note that Labour did largely the same if not worse in the 2017 June general election than they did in the May Derbyshire county council elections, a very unusual occurance. This was particularly true in Bolsover. Therefore, given the disproportionate further collapse in the 2019 general election it should not be assumed that even a 50/50 national environment would actually mean Labour net gains here, as the Tories would have won basically everything at the 2019 general election and there’s a very long way back for Labour to even repeat their 2017 county council performance nevermind win a majority.

[alien8ted]

Dec 3, 2020 12:54:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 3, 2020 9:24:40 GMT ilerda said:

What remains to be seen is whether the electorate choose to reward the Conservatives for successfully bringing us out of the crisis, or punish them for their mistakes early on.

Well that's a fair amount of editorialising right there, innit. Were the vaccines created by Hancock and Johnson?

No but our plumetting low unemployment is to  be celebrated as a voteworthy acheivement.