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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Mar 13, 2020 20:41:21 GMT
Cambridgeshire
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 1, 2021 22:21:24 GMT
I'm getting more and more out of the loop here, but as it's theoretically possible that this could end up in NOC I may as well give a quick summary:
Fenland
In most years, you'd expect all the divisions here to stick with the Conservatives. UKIP did well in 2013, but have faded away without trace and if a radical right option does re-emerge here, it'll likely be at the crest of a national wave rather than as a result of local activism. The Labour vote in Wisbech has probably crumbled permanently, and whilst it's held up a bit better in March, the way the county boundaries are drawn means even in a good year those divisions are out of reach. Which means the only realistic threats to a Tory clean sweep are the Lib Dems and an independent candidate. The Lib Dems have had some occasional success in Wisbech (partly because some of the local Tories there seem like seriously nasty pieces of work and don't try hard enough to disguise this) but I'm not aware of any rumours that this is going to be a year where that reappears. Independents could theoretically strike anywhere. One got close in March South in 2017, but he was elected as a Tory district councillor in 2019 so presumably isn't an issue any more. The Bucknors in Wisbech seem to have retired from local politics, so my best guess is that we are looking at a clean sweep, but it's a best guess resting on very limited knowledge.
Best guess: Con 9
East Cambridgeshire
Generally this is a Tory-Lib Dem contest. We do our best to change that, but it's hard enough at the best of times and not being able to campaign for most of the year certainly doesn't help to change that. Best case scenario for the Lib Dems is probably something like the 2019 locals, in which case they'd gain the two Ely divisions, come a respectable second in Haddenham & Soham South and maybe nose ahead in Soham North if the Palmer family have rubbed enough people up the wrong way locally. But that seems somewhat optimistic to me. Not only is their national polling rather weaker now, but both the Ely wards are more difficult for them than they look - Ely North because Liz Every is a strong incumbent, Ely South because a couple of Lib Dem district councillors representing the area have become independents and the Labour candidate has a moderate personal vote.
Best guess: Con 6 LD 2
Huntingdonshire
As with Fenland, in the absence of UKIP the north of the district is unlikely to produce any surprises. I'm also assuming the independent group in St Neots will hold on, unless these elections end up being particularly bad for non-party candidates. So the major point of interest is probably in and around Huntingdon. Huntingdon North and Hartford looks like it ought to be a three-way marginal and I imagine the Tories will be keen to get Huntingdon West back. I'm sure I heard somewhere that Peter Downes is standing down in Brampton & Buckden, in which case the Tories would have a good shot at winning back the division, but I can't find active proof of that so I may have just imagined that.
Best guess: Con 12 LD 3 Ind 2
South Cambridgeshire
If Cambridgeshire does go into NOC, it'll be South Cambridgeshire that causes it. In 2019, they swept the district elections on the back of anti-Brexit feeling and if they could repeat those results, it'd be all to play for. That's a big ask, though. Not only are Brexit and the Lib Dems both further down the national agenda than two years ago, but the district council have also been presiding over rather a lot of major planning applications. As a matter of policy, I think this is rather good. As a matter of politics, I'm sceptical that all of the villagers in this wealthy district agree with me.
If the Lib Dems are playing offence, targets will include Sawston & The Shelfords (where the Tory deputy leader has just announced his resignation after a scandal over a farm tenancy); Cottenham & Willingham (held by the Tories by 2 votes in 2017); Longstanton, Northstowe & Over (where the middle element now has a few hundred houses and will probably help the LDs out a little); and maybe Hardwick.
If they're playing defence, then their major worries are Gamlingay; Linton; and maybe Waterbeach (where about 10k homes have got planning permission, and where one of the local LD councillors cast the deciding vote in favour of the last bit application there.)
In Cambourne, the Tories have been very lucky that the anti-Tory vote never seems to have coalesced decisively behind any other party. In 2018 Labour did manage to grab one of the district seats there, so maybe that will change in future. If it does, it's probably our best chance of a gain in the district. But it's hard to tell, as whilst a lot of people moving into South Cambs belong to Labour-friendly demographics, traditionally they've rapidly started voting tactically and it's made little difference to our raw totals. If that changes, I would imagine it would do so rather rapidly. But that's a pretty big if.
Best guess: Con 8 LD 7
Cambridge
The days when I used to know anything about local politics here are fast receding into the mists of history, so I can speculate wildly without fearing I'm giving any secrets away. The county elections will be somewhat overshadowed by the all-up elections for the borough council, which may affect what wards get targeted, especially by the Lib Dems (who have fewer activists and therefore can't really run an active campaign city-wide.) In 2017 both Abbey and King's Hedges were marginal, but that was a bit of a fluke and I'd be surprised if they are this year. Romsey could plausibly be a worry if the disillusionment amongst the very online left does portend poor turnout amongst the Corbynite rank and file, but on those boundaries it still ought to end up in the Labour column.
However, in truth the only Labour-held division that looks really vulnerable to me is Castle, where we won a narrow 3-way race in 2017. I don't know if John Hipkin intends to run again (nor if he'd endorse a candidate if he didn't) and I wouldn't say we can't win it, but I would say it certainly doesn't look like natural Labour territory.
On the flipside, if the LDs' struggles in opinion polling are indicative then they could probably lose any division in the city with the possible exception of Newnham.
Best guess: Lab 8 LD 4
That would work out as a Conservative majority of 9, but it's based on the assumption it'll be a good year for them nationally and a moderately good year for them locally. If that's wrong, it could be very tight indeed.
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Post by political2 on Mar 2, 2021 17:30:14 GMT
Regarding East Cambridgeshire, several incumbent Conservative councillors are standing down and their divisions will perhaps be more competitive this time. Soham North, where Mark Goldsack is standing again for the Tories, includes Isleham where the Conservative share of the vote was about 67% in both 2017 and the subsequent by-election. This strongly Tory village will probably mean the division remains Conservative despite the Lib Dem gains and new-found strength in Soham itself in 2019's District polls. If the two Ely divisions vote as they did in the last District elections then South is a reasonably comfortable Lib Dem gain but North much closer.
Everywhere else should be 'no change' including Sutton where although the Lib Dem majority was very small in 2017 the Tories seem to have given up on trying to oust Lorna Dupre and have shipped in a candidate from a distant corner of Fenland.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 29, 2021 21:05:08 GMT
Former MEP Richard Howitt standing for Labour in Petersfield.
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greenhert
Green
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Post by greenhert on Mar 29, 2021 22:21:27 GMT
For the record, the most recent elections of South Cambridgeshire DC happened in 2018, not 2019.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 31, 2021 10:41:58 GMT
Is it right that in Cambridge itself there will be simultaneous elections for the city council using the new boundaries and for the county using the old ones?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 31, 2021 11:03:14 GMT
Is it right that in Cambridge itself there will be simultaneous elections for the city council using the new boundaries and for the county using the old ones? Yes but the city and county boundaries have differed for a while now anyway |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 31, 2021 13:26:54 GMT
Is it right that in Cambridge itself there will be simultaneous elections for the city council using the new boundaries and for the county using the old ones? Yes but the city and county boundaries have differed for a while now anyway Ah - thanks, i think i did know that but had forgotten. |
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Post by David Boothroyd on Apr 8, 2021 19:46:47 GMT
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Post by David Boothroyd on Apr 8, 2021 19:49:42 GMT
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Post by David Boothroyd on Apr 8, 2021 19:54:49 GMT
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robert1
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Post by robert1 on Apr 9, 2021 8:48:08 GMT
Rise in Greens and fall in Labour in S Cambs from 2017
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 9, 2021 8:54:52 GMT
Greens missing Burwell and Sutton |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 9, 2021 8:56:36 GMT
Labour missing Bar Hill, Cottenham, Duxford, Gamlingay, Hardwick, Longstanton |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 9, 2021 9:00:44 GMT
Lib Dems missing Huntingdon West, Ramsey, St Neots East, St Neots Eynesbury, St Neots The Eatons Greens missing Godmanchester, Huntingdon North, Huntingdon West, Ramsey, Sawtry, Warboys, Yaxley Independents in Huntingdon West, Ramsey, St Ives North, St Neots East St Neots IG in St Neots Eynesbury, St Neots The Eatons TUSC in Godmanchester, Huntingdon North UKIP in Huntingdon North, Sawtry |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 9, 2021 9:58:50 GMT
Labour missing Bar Hill, Cottenham, Duxford, Gamlingay, Hardwick, Longstanton All of which are pimrarily in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, so presumably the local CLP has dropped the ball. Not sure what happened there - usually for the county elections if a CLP doesn't get its act together the county party scrapes something together. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 9, 2021 10:05:58 GMT
Labour missing Bar Hill, Cottenham, Duxford, Gamlingay, Hardwick, Longstanton All of which are pimrarily in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, so presumably the local CLP has dropped the ball. Not sure what happened there - usually for the county elections if a CLP doesn't get its act together the county party scrapes something together. Particularly as Cottenham at least used to have a decent Labour vote |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 9, 2021 10:45:20 GMT
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Post by matureleft on Apr 9, 2021 10:46:09 GMT
All of which are pimrarily in the South Cambridgeshire constituency, so presumably the local CLP has dropped the ball. Not sure what happened there - usually for the county elections if a CLP doesn't get its act together the county party scrapes something together. Particularly as Cottenham at least used to have a decent Labour vote Indeed. Labour councillors comfortably in living memory but, like many places like this, sensitive to individual candidates dropping out. And that was the district council ward and I'd assume that the county division is larger. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 9, 2021 11:02:17 GMT
Fenland SOPN: www.fenland.gov.uk/media/17550/Statement-of-Persons-Nominated-Cambridgeshire-County-Council-Election/pdf/SOPN_-_Cambridgeshire_County_Council_Election.pdf?m=637535583314600000Conservative - 9 Labour - 9 Green - 6 (missing Whittlesey North, Wisbech East, Wisbech West) Lib Dem - 5 (March South, Roman Bank, Whittlesey North, Wisbech East, 1/2 in March North) UKIP - 1 (Wisbech West) Workers Party - 1 (Wisbech East) Independent - 6 (Chatteris, March North, Whittlesey South, Wisbech East, 2 in Wisbech West) |
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