Scotland voted for independence in 2014

[boogieeck]

Aug 2, 2020 20:32:53 GMT David said:

I sincerely hope that you are correct Boog. However, it does worry me. I think independence could well occur and it would be, in at least the short and medium term, an economic and social calamity.

I am a pretty hardcore Yoon, so obv I would die in a ditch to prevent it, but I have an alter ego, well several, but one in particular who thinks ....that would be interesting.

I am pretty well set up for life, largely because I have downgraded my goals I admit, but I own my house, my wife and I still have pensions we have yet to touch, my daughters are sort of set up, or will be within two years, at least to the point where I can wash my hands and say that if they fail, it is down to them, not me. D1 needs to fail a second degree from third year, D2 needs a bad marriage and divorce to not own outright by 40. I think I am in a good place.

If Scotland was to win back its Freedum, I could sit back and enjoy either being proved correct and watch our society and economy go down the pan, Capital flight, English flight, youth flight, censorship, the collapse of public services, the poor suffering, a welcome property cash (but no benefits from it) and all the joyous farce that would follow. I might stand for the council again as a Whig under the slogan "you got what you deserved". And I won't even be earning enough that they can really tax me. Or I might be proved wrong and watch my nation flourish and such is the oddities of patriotism that I would embrace it. It really is a no-lose situation if you are a sixty-year-old homeowning couple with two pension pots plus state pensions (I think we have six actually, but some need to be consolidated) and don't care about others having a hard time

[unrepentantfool]

Aug 2, 2020 20:18:23 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Aug 2, 2020 17:00:49 GMT pl said:

Let's take a look a the timetable of events here before we move into a What If scenario.

Scotland
Indyref is 18 September 2014
Scottish parliamentary elections 5 May 2016

UK/England
Cameron promises renegotiation and referendum should Conservatives win next election January 2013
UKIP wins EP14 election 22 May 2014
Conservative manifesto launch (promises an EU referendum by 2017) 15 April 2015
UK General election 7 May 2015
Brexit Referendum 23 June 2016

Let's establish a point of departure (PoV) of the timelines as IndyRef day 18 September 2014. We'll assume 'Yes' Get Out The Vote is better than in Our TimeLine, more favourable weather for the 'Yes' campaign and/or some silly eve of poll gaff by the 'No' campaign. Essentially, there is no POLICY reason for the PoV, just "events".

Interesting, but we're trying to work out a POD where IndyRef is after EuroRef, so a minimal timetable is:

May 2011: SNP win Scottish Parliamentary election
Jan 2013: Cameron promises EU referendum should Conservatives win next election
May 2014: UKIP wins EU14 election
Apr 2015: Conservative manifesto launch (promises an EU referendum by 2017)
May 2015: Conservatives win UK General election, mandale for EU referendum
May 2016: SNP win Scottish Parliamentary election
Jun 2016: Brexit wins EU Referendum
Jun 2016: Cameron resigns
Apr 2017: May loses the UK General Election, holds onto Government
Dec 2019: Johnson wins UK General Election
Jan 2020: UK leaves the EU

Where does "we'll allow the Scots a referendum if there's a mandate" and "Scottish Referendum" fit into that timetable?

The 2017 election could have gone either way and we could have ended up with a minority Labour government with SNP confidence and supply, in return for an Indy ref the following year. It's the only plausible scenario post-Brexit in which a U.K referendum could have existed.