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Post by relique on Jan 26, 2020 22:35:44 GMT
I imagine it would have been lost under Napoleon and Hitler; at other times having a border with the Spanish/Austrian Netherlands/Belgium on one side and France on the other might have made it defensible so long as we played divide-and-rule. That is the interesting point. If we end up with a heavily armed camp of English/British Calais, it would result in Britain being more interested in the European balance of power and would massively alter the scope of British foreign/imperial policy. It would result in a Britain more focused on its army than its navy and result in a Britain less interested in imperial expansion. Britain would likely have pushed for an extended Calais further along the coast and would have been interested in keeping the Holy Roman Empire as fragmented as possible. Belgium would likely have remained divided into several different states to prevent another strong state on Calais' frontier. I'm guessing England would have also pushed hard to have Dunkirk remain in the hands of the Spanish Netherlands rather than France, or captured it itself (like it did in the 17th century). If we go with a Greater Calais (some smaller version of the 1.4m population Pas de Calais) we are probably looking at a lot more than two constituencies worth. I'd probably go for about 8-10. That's definitely enough to be a mini Ulster if you wanted to take it that way. The Calais arrondissement has 150 000 inhabitants. If you add Boulogne sur mer and Saint Omer arrondissements it's another 290 000. Then Dunkerque arrondissement (in département Nord, not Pas de Calais ) has 350 000 inhabitants but that includes interior flanders (hazebrouck and bailleul ) and comes quite close to Lille. With only the coastal région that's about 180 to 200 000. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 27, 2020 18:46:00 GMT
I wonder what the dominant language would have been. At the time, you probably had more speakers of Picard or Flemish than standard French. Does English become the lingua franca as a result? Does Calais become the only officially Picard-speaking territory in Europe? It already had a written corpus in those days so could have been formalised easily. Picard in Calais would probably do about as well as Jerrais in Jersey. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 28, 2020 8:10:16 GMT
with the population of the former Pale of Calais standing at about 150,000 (which is the figure for Calais' arrondissement). So the Lathe of Calais would be entitled to eight county councillors on Kent County Council. Now that's one for the fantasy boundaries thread. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jan 28, 2020 13:47:54 GMT
I can’t see a scenario where we hold as little as Calais but I can see how we might have held far more with France having never been allowed to develop as a significant nation Mary if England and Phillip of Spain have a son and peace reigns supreme No armada No Elizabeth With the king ( who we can call Henry VIII) unable to rule hands on both nations have distinct governance and politics and develop separate empires living alongside each other in peace The king mostly lives in Spain and England develops as as a parliamentary government . In time it goes Protestant without the Anglican Church having never seen the light of day Henry VIII or XI marries Mary Queen of Scots who never becomes Queen of France Scotland is now also in personal Union but self governed Darien still happens and Scotland goes bust leading to the Act of Union of 1707 Ireland has been incorporated via trade more than anything else but Catholicism never suppressed in Ireland due to the kings Catholicism The Irish peers are Catholic In 1801 they too join the UK So throughout all of this France has been suppressed and is a bundle of satrapies Englands writ runs from the Netherlands to Brittany southern and Central France are dominated by Spain The Uk dominates North America India Australia and south and east Africa Spain north and west Africa and sought America Germany develops as an economy but is no military threat
Interesting you should post that, this thread had got me think, what if there was no armada / a successful armada.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 28, 2020 13:56:27 GMT
I can’t see a scenario where we hold as little as Calais but I can see how we might have held far more with France having never been allowed to develop as a significant nation Mary if England and Phillip of Spain have a son and peace reigns supreme No armada No Elizabeth With the king ( who we can call Henry VIII) IX shirely? VIII would have been his grandfather. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 28, 2020 14:11:15 GMT
I can’t see a scenario where we hold as little as Calais but I can see how we might have held far more with France having never been allowed to develop as a significant nation Mary if England and Phillip of Spain have a son and peace reigns supreme No armada No Elizabeth With the king ( who we can call Henry VIII) unable to rule hands on both nations have distinct governance and politics and develop separate empires living alongside each other in peace The king mostly lives in Spain and England develops as as a parliamentary government . In time it goes Protestant without the Anglican Church having never seen the light of day Henry VIII or XI marries Mary Queen of Scots who never becomes Queen of France Scotland is now also in personal Union but self governed Darien still happens and Scotland goes bust leading to the Act of Union of 1707 Ireland has been incorporated via trade more than anything else but Catholicism never suppressed in Ireland due to the kings Catholicism The Irish peers are Catholic In 1801 they too join the UK So throughout all of this France has been suppressed and is a bundle of satrapies Englands writ runs from the Netherlands to Brittany southern and Central France are dominated by Spain The Uk dominates North America India Australia and south and east Africa Spain north and west Africa and sought America Germany develops as an economy but is no military threat
Interesting you should post that, this thread had got me think, what if there was no armada / a successful armada.
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Gordon Landsborough would have had to choose another name for his children's paperback imprint, which he later sold to Collins. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Jan 28, 2020 16:49:07 GMT
More seriously, how do Ceuta and Melilla vote? Differently. As far as I remember, Ceuta was more of a centre-left PSOE stronghold, which has now gone far-right Vox. Melilla is centre-right PP, but with a strong showing by a sort of independent coalition (note independent, not independentist). I suppose Melilla is further from the Spanish mainland, so has fewer potential migrants than Ceuta which explains the lack of a far-right backlash. As a result, I think this would be key to figuring out how Calais would vote. If the "jungle" was constantly trying to break over the inevitable wall into Calais, then I could imagine some sort of BNP type outfit taking the city. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 29, 2020 9:28:24 GMT
I can’t see a scenario where we hold as little as Calais but I can see how we might have held far more with France having never been allowed to develop as a significant nation Mary if England and Phillip of Spain have a son and peace reigns supreme No armada No Elizabeth With the king ( who we can call Henry VIII) unable to rule hands on both nations have distinct governance and politics and develop separate empires living alongside each other in peace The king mostly lives in Spain and England develops as as a parliamentary government . In time it goes Protestant without the Anglican Church having never seen the light of day Henry VIII or XI marries Mary Queen of Scots who never becomes Queen of France Scotland is now also in personal Union but self governed Darien still happens and Scotland goes bust leading to the Act of Union of 1707 Ireland has been incorporated via trade more than anything else but Catholicism never suppressed in Ireland due to the kings Catholicism The Irish peers are Catholic In 1801 they too join the UK So throughout all of this France has been suppressed and is a bundle of satrapies Englands writ runs from the Netherlands to Brittany southern and Central France are dominated by Spain The Uk dominates North America India Australia and south and east Africa Spain north and west Africa and sought America Germany develops as an economy but is no military threat Interesting stuff, but it's not obvious to me how you get to France being a bundle of satrapies starting in 1553. France had been one of the most important European players for centuries by that point. For France to have already been shattered like that, they would probably have had to have either lost the argument over the Angevin Empire or the Hundred Years War, either of which would have led to a very divergent history a long time before 1553 (Mary probably wouldn't have been queen, for a start). A United Kingdom of England and Spain, on the other hand, would be an existential threat to France and could conceivably have conquered the French in a war within a century or so. Would the Spanish Habsburgs (who, after all, are calling the shots here) have allowed a conquered France to shatter like that? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 29, 2020 13:53:54 GMT
More seriously, how do Ceuta and Melilla vote? Differently. As far as I remember, Ceuta was more of a centre-left PSOE stronghold, which has now gone far-right Vox. Melilla is centre-right PP, but with a strong showing by a sort of independent coalition (note independent, not independentist). I suppose Melilla is further from the Spanish mainland, so has fewer potential migrants than Ceuta which explains the lack of a far-right backlash. As a result, I think this would be key to figuring out how Calais would vote. If the "jungle" was constantly trying to break over the inevitable wall into Calais, then I could imagine some sort of BNP type outfit taking the city. If Calais stays in England, then Ceuta probably remains in Portugal (have a look at its coat of arms!) |
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Post by therealriga on Jan 29, 2020 17:56:51 GMT
I can't help feeling that a modern-day British Calais would cynically vote for whichever of the UK parties would be prepared to give them the biggest subsidy. Depending on how history worked out, there might be some sort of Francophone minority in the Pale demanding Francophone rights (this is not Gibraltar, it's not easily defensible). Perhaps the Calais Assembly has just returned from a period of political suspension with some sort of deal giving the French language greater prominence together with a commissioner for the promotion of the Calaisien-Douvrien dialect. More seriously, how do Ceuta and Melilla vote? Ceuta originally voted for the winning party. Right in 1977 and 1979, left in 1982, 1986 and 1989. The bellwether status ended in 1993 when the PP took it and held it till April last year when the PSOE gained it. Their hold was short-lived, Vox won it in November. Melilla has been more right wing. PSOE were only able to win it in their landslide in 1982. They originally won it in 1989, but that was voided by an election court and PP won a special election. PSOE then gained it against the tide in 1993, but it's been held by PP ever since, though last year's wins were narrow. Less than 24% in April and a 181-vote majority in November over a left-wing regional party (it has an electorate of nearly 60k.) Based on that, hypothetical Calais would be right leaning? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2020 21:35:27 GMT
How would Brittany vote if it were still British?
Like the rest of the Celtic Fringe it may have been Lib Dem and then more Tory after the referendum.
However the political culture might have changed because it would have been part of Britain occupied by the Nazis.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jan 29, 2020 23:12:28 GMT
How would Brittany vote if it were still British? Like the rest of the Celtic Fringe it may have been Lib Dem and then more Tory after the referendum. However the political culture might have changed because it would have been part of Britain occupied by the Nazis.
Ah, but if Britain had still been in France all of history may have been different, so no Nazi's probably.
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Post by relique on Jan 30, 2020 0:04:03 GMT
How would Brittany vote if it were still British? Like the rest of the Celtic Fringe it may have been Lib Dem and then more Tory after the referendum. However the political culture might have changed because it would have been part of Britain occupied by the Nazis.
Ah, but if Britain had still been in France all of history may have been different, so no Nazi's probably.
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Yeah, my grand fathers would have rebelled against another occupant ! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 30, 2020 9:13:54 GMT
I can't help feeling that a modern-day British Calais would cynically vote for whichever of the UK parties would be prepared to give them the biggest subsidy. Depending on how history worked out, there might be some sort of Francophone minority in the Pale demanding Francophone rights (this is not Gibraltar, it's not easily defensible). Perhaps the Calais Assembly has just returned from a period of political suspension with some sort of deal giving the French language greater prominence together with a commissioner for the promotion of the Calaisien-Douvrien dialect. More seriously, how do Ceuta and Melilla vote? Ceuta originally voted for the winning party. Right in 1977 and 1979, left in 1982, 1986 and 1989. The bellwether status ended in 1993 when the PP took it and held it till April last year when the PSOE gained it. Their hold was short-lived, Vox won it in November. Melilla has been more right wing. PSOE were only able to win it in their landslide in 1982. They originally won it in 1989, but that was voided by an election court and PP won a special election. PSOE then gained it against the tide in 1993, but it's been held by PP ever since, though last year's wins were narrow. Less than 24% in April and a 181-vote majority in November over a left-wing regional party (it has an electorate of nearly 60k.) Based on that, hypothetical Calais would be right leaning? It quite possibly would, as there's a greater chance that the Flemish population isn't assimilated as under French rule. And Flanders tends to vote to the Right. |
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Post by mick745 on Feb 10, 2020 9:44:17 GMT
Calais has had problems with migrants and trade. I would therefore think that thete would be some support for the Brexit Party and could have gone for Johnson's get brexit done
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