Peruvian Extraordinary Congressional Elections 2020

[iain]

Jan 27, 2020 17:55:15 GMT yellowperil said:

Looking out in your reports for the places in Peru I know personally- I don't know the south coast bit at all, so Tacna, Moccquegua and Ica are completely unknown, as is Tumbes in the far north, and for that matter Piura.I know Lambayeque quite well, and have stayed in Chiclayo, the capital. Of the other states so far mentioned , I have stayed in Apurimac, Cusco and Puno states in the High Andes, and Lima, Ancash and La Libertad on the coast, but no other Andean states and nowhere in the Amazonian area. It really is such a big country to know all of it. Inevitably, though I have covered quite a lot by bus and train, some hops have to be done by air- I remember the hop from Trujillo to Cusco being pretty ...interesting. I am thinking of the logistics of organising an election in a country like that. It really doesn't bear thinking about. Do others know the country better than me?

I can't imagine so!

Some more results:
San Martín, on the edge of the Amazon - 2 for Acción Popular, 1 for each of Alianza para el Progreso and Fuerza Popular
Arequipa, home to the second city (also called Arequipa) - 2 for Unión por el Perú, 1 for each of Partido Morado, Acción Popular, Frente Amplio and FREPAP

In Madre de Dios, the only single member state, also on the edge of the Amazon, the poll was topped by Avanza País, a socially conservative but left wing party. However, they will not reach the national threshold, meaning the seat will instead go to Unión por el Perú.



This election really has been a total clusterfuck. Given the bizarre patterns from province to province, it would be an even more splintered Congress if not for the 5% threshold, even with the small district magnitudes. This will probably be okay for Vízcarra's last year in office (both President and Congress will be re-elected in April 2021) as his main agenda of anti-corruption measures is backed (often very strongly) by the vast majority of smaller parties who have made their way into Congress. Furthermore, there will be a relatively clear centre-right majority. However, it does not bode well for the stability of the country going further forwards, particularly for the Presidential election.

[iain]

Lambayeque, in the north, has elected a member each for Acción Popular, Juntos por el Perú, Somos Perú, Fuerza Popular and Alianza para el Progreso

Edit - actually I'm not 100% on whether Juntos por el Perú will reach the threshold. I think they probably will, but if not then their seat will be taken by Podemos Perú.

[iain]

Counting is now complete in Cajamarca (north of the country, in the Andes), electing: 2 for Alianza para el Progreso, 1 each for Acción Popular, Frente Amplio, Fuerza Popular and Somos Perú

Cusco, a five member seat has also finished counting. Democracia Directa (centre left, in favour of direct democracy), who topped the poll, are unlikely to meet the seat threshold, and Renacimiento Unido Nacional (an indigenous rights party), who came in fourth, definitely won't. The seats will therefore go to: Unión por el Perú, Acción Popular, Alianza para el Progreso, FREPAP and Somos Perú

[yellowperil]

I am waiting with bated breath for more news from Peru- those early results were a curious bunch in that they came from a wide range of different sorts of places and weren't quite looking as what I might have expected, even given this is a very odd election indeed- if ever an election deserved that extraordinary title it's this one. And I'm finding it incredibly difficult to tell one lot from another however hard I try. I'm not sure the Peruvians weren't having the same problem! Do I get the impression rhat they were voting for individual local candidates and the party labels mattered very little?

And I'm really challenged by all the family / party connections and overlapping names, etc. A further question- is there any family connection between Julio Guzman and the late unlamented Abimael, or is that just an unfortunate sharing of surnames? Shows my knowledge of Peruvian politics is stuck in the era of Sendero Luminoso!

[iain]

Piura (north, on the coast) has finished with: 3x Fuerza Popular, 1 for each of Alianza para el Progreso, Acción Popular, Partido Morado and Somos Perú.

Áncash (on the coast north of Lima) has elected: 2x Somos Perú, 1 for each of Alianza para el Progreso, Unión por el Perú and Acción Popular.

There is certainly a lot of personal voting going on, but the parties still have some relevance - it will be clearer to see for sure once results are fully in. And no, Julio and Abimael Guzmán are not related!

[iain]

Pasco, east of Lima, has completed its count and elected one each for Acción Popular and Alianza para el Progreso

The following have not quite finished, but their congressmen are now virtually guaranteed:
Amazonas (in the north) - one for each of Frente Amplio and Somos Perú
Huancavelica (in central Peru) - one for each of Unión por el Perú and Acción Popular (Democracia Directa actually came second, but are unlikely to reach the threshold)
La Libertad (in the NW, includes Trujillo) - three for Alianza para el Progreso, one for each of Frente Amplio, Acción Popular, Fuerza Popular, FREPAP (Partido Aprista finished second, but will not reach the threshold)
Puno (in the south) - two for Unión por el Perú, one for each of Frente Amplio, Acción Popular and Alianza para el Progreso (Peru Libre finished fourth, but are unlikely to meet the threshold)

[yellowperil]

Jan 28, 2020 19:07:40 GMT iain said:

Piura (north, on the coast) has finished with: 3x Fuerza Popular, 1 for each of Alianza para el Progreso, Acción Popular, Partido Morado and Somos Perú.

Áncash (on the coast north of Lima) has elected: 2x Somos Perú, 1 for each of Alianza para el Progreso, Unión por el Perú and Acción Popular.

There is certainly a lot of personal voting going on, but the parties still have some relevance - it will be clearer to see for sure once results are fully in. And no, Julio and Abimael Guzmán are not related!

I am relieved on the last point, but I know a lot of countries where clan politics turns up people on all sides of the political spectrum, so it wasn't impossible. Looks as though Clan Fujimori may be heading that way! You obviously know an awful lot about modern Peruvian politics whereas I tend to fade out post Alan Garcia. I was wondering where your interest in Peru came from?

[yellowperil]

I was trying to work out which results we were still awaiting any word (though some early results will need confirmation?) Presumably Lima city, astonishingly, or is there good reason for that? - but otherwise I think all the coastal states are in? Otherwise Huanuco, Junin, Ayacucho, Amazonas, Loreto and Ucayali from the mountain and eastern states?

[iain]

Jan 29, 2020 9:27:49 GMT yellowperil said:

I was trying to work out which results we were still awaiting any word (though some early results will need confirmation?) Presumably Lima city, astonishingly, or is there good reason for that? - but otherwise I think all the coastal states are in? Otherwise Huanuco, Junin, Ayacucho, Amazonas, Loreto and Ucayali from the mountain and eastern states?

Amazonas is in my last post.

Counting has now finished in Huánuco and Ucayali, and all but finished in Loreto.
Huánuco - 2 for Acción Popular, 1 for Alianza para el Progreso
Ucayali - 1 for FREPAP, Somos Perú
Loreto - 2 for Alianza para el Progreso, 1 for Acción Popular, FREPAP

The reason Lima takes so long is because it is so much bigger than the other regions.

[yellowperil]

Oops! yes I don't know why I listed Amazonas on the states still to come.  Just not cross-referencing properly.

And yes I understand Lima city is on quite a different scale from all other constituencies, but they wouldn't have the logistical problems some other states have just getting ballot boxes to the count, which I suppose might account for the delay in the central Andean states. I suppose the time factor for Lima is in the complexity of the count given the huge number of candidates and multiplicity of minor parties- indeed they're all minor parties in UK terms -it looks as though no single party will match the LibDems in the UK in terms of vote share!Do we know how they count? If its done manually no wonder they're still counting!Or have they had an electronic meltdown?

[iain]

I believe it’s done electronically, but I’m not sure. The other thing, which I forgot to note, is that Lima Metropolitana also includes all ballots from ‘Peruvians abroad’, which I imagine adds time to the counting.

[yellowperil]

My copy of the I newspaper today had a graphic on the level of dissatisfaction with the democratic system in 51 democratic countries ( it excluded countries not considered democratic at all, Russia being among the notable absentees, and a lot of smaller countries), but I see Peru ranked 5th worst amd three of the 4 considered even less satisfactory were in Latin America (Colombia, Brazil and lowest of all, Mexico. Venezuela was also in the lowest category , labelled as "crisis countries", those with dissatisfaction levels above 75%, Apart from those 5 Latin American countries, only 2 other countries were in this class, both European: Ukraine and Moldava.

Incidentally the UK was heading rapidly in the same direction, with one of the biggest falls since an earlier survey in the 1990s and now ranked 16th worst and slightly below Italy and Argentina - and rather further below Bolivia!But I suppose then we do take some comfort that it could take a few more years before we slide below Peru.

[iain]

Junín will elect one each for: FREPAP, Alianza para el Progreso, Unión por el Perú, Acción Popular and Fuerza Popular

The poll was topped by Perú Libre, but they do not have enough votes to cross the threshold. This bumps their seat down to Juntos por el Perú, but it now looks as though that party will not cross the threshold either, so Fuerza will get the final seat.

Three regions, therefore, have been 'won' by a party who have failed to win any seats - Junín, Cusco and Madre de Dios.

[yellowperil]

So now I think thats just Ayacucho and Lima Metropolitana to come. If I've counted right that's 4 for Ayacucho and 36 for Lima? Don't know anything about Ayacucho except the famous battle- it was therefore one of the first Peruvian placenames to enter my consciousness. I was obsessed with Bolivar in my early teens!

note: Ayacucho is named after the battle rather than vice versa. 

[iain]

Ayacucho has all but finished counting, and will elect 2 Unión por el Perú congressmen and 1 Alianza para el Progreso congressman.

Lima Metropolitana has completed and will elect:
Podemos Perú - 8
Partido Morado - 6
FREPAP - 5
Acción Popular - 5
Fuerza Popular - 4
Frente Amplio - 3
Somos Perú - 2
Alianza para el Progreso - 2
Unión por el Perú - 1

Without the 5% threshold, it would have elected:
Podemos Perú - 7
Partido Morado - 5
FREPAP - 4
Acción Popular - 4
Fuerza Popular - 3
Frente Amplio - 2
Partido Peruano Cristiano - 2
Juntos por el Perú - 2
Somos Perú - 2
Alianza para el Progreso - 1
Unión por el Perú - 1
Perú Patria Segura - 1
Partido Aprista - 1
Democracia Directa - 1

[yellowperil]

I make that (figures in brackets the prediction from the early count results, which seems to have only totaled 129)

Accion Popular- 25 (24)
Allianza pe P - 23 (18)
FREPAP -15 (16)
Fuerza Popular -15 (12)
Union p e Peru -13 (17)
Podemos Peru -11 (10)
Somos Peru -10 (6)
P Morado - 9 (9)
Frente Amplio - 9 (12)
Juntos p e Peru-0 (5)

Have I got that right? I have also prepared some regional analyses . It's quite difficult to make much sense of it when everything is so fragmented everywhere but there are clear regional differences emerging not least in where particular parties have just enough extra bias in their favour to break through in some areas and not in others,so Allianza strong in the north , both the coastal provinces and the mountains , but weak in the centre and south, again both coastal and mountains. Podemos strong in greater Lima but almost absent in the rest of the country. Accion Popular pretty even over almost all the country but weakest in the south. I note the North /South divide seems a lot stronger than the coast/mountain/east divides, which to me comes as a bit of a surprise. Cries out for some imaginative mapping but a bit beyond me these days.

[greenhert]

My analysis: alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-peruvian-election-of-2020.html

[iain]

I never actually got around to posting the official results, which are as follows:

PARTY	PERCENTAGE	SEATS	CHANGE FROM 2016	CHANGE FROM PRE-ELECTION
Acción Popular	10.26%	25	+20	+19
Podemos Perú	8.38%	11	+11	+11
FREPAP	8.38%	15	+15	+15
Alianza para el Progreso	7.96%	22	+13	+12
Partido Morado	7.40%	9	+9	+9
Fuerza Popular	7.31%	15	-58	-39
Unión por el Perú	6.77%	13	+13	+13
Frente Amplio	6.16%	9	-11	±0
Somos Perú	6.05%	11	+11	+11
Juntos por el Perú	4.80%	0	±0	-10
Partido Popular Cristiano	3.99%	0
Democracia Directa	3.68%	0
Perú Libre	3.40%	0
Partido Aprista Peruano	2.72%	0	-5	-5
Avanza País	2.52%	0
Perú Patria Segura	2.37%	0
Vamos Perú	2.10%	0
Renacimiento Unido Nacional	1.79%	0
Solidaridad Nacional	1.49%	0
Perú Nación	1.39%	0
Contigo	1.07%	0	-18	-6

So essentially we have:
Secular centre / centre right - 45 (+17)
Christian Democrats - 33 (+24)
Religious Fundamentalists - 15 (+15)
Fujimorists - 15 (-58)
'Etnocacerista' - 13 (+13)
Left - 9 (-11)

[iain]

Under a pure d'Hondt system, with a threshold of 5%, the result would have been:

PARTY	SEATS	CHANGE FROM ACTUAL
Acción Popular	19	-6
Podemos Perú	16	+5
FREPAP	16	+1
Alianza para el Progreso	15	-7
Partido Morado	14	+5
Fuerza Popular	14	-1
Unión por el Perú	13	±0
Frente Amplio	12	+3
Somos Perú	11	±0

Alternatively, if the election was done on regional d'Hondt, but without the national threshold the result would have been:

PARTY	SEATS	CHANGE FROM ACTUAL
Acción Popular	23	-2
Podemos Perú	13	-2
FREPAP	9	-2
Alianza para el Progreso	20	-2
Partido Morado	7	-2
Fuerza Popular	13	-2
Unión por el Perú	12	-1
Frente Amplio	8	-1
Somos Perú	9	-2
Juntos por el Perú	3	+3
Partido Popular Cristiano	2	+2
Democracia Directa	3	+3
Perú Libre	3	+3
Partido Aprista Peruano	2	+2
Avanza País	1	+1
Perú Patria Segura	1	+1
Renacimiento Unido Nacional	1	+1

[iain]

And just to show what a mess this was, here's the map from wikipedia showing the winner in each region:
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/CongresoPeru2020.png