Hart

[Admin Twaddleford]

NOC - Ind-LD administration
Elects by thirds
Current composition: Con 11, LD 10, Community Campaign Hart 12

[redvers]

A correction to the above.  11 Community Campaign Hart, 11 Conservative, 10 Lib Dems, 1 Independent.  11 seats up for grabs.

One might think a council divided near equally between the parties might produce a lot of fascinating results.  You'd be wrong.  The Lib Dems and CCH do not stand against each other, and most wards are won with thumping majorities.  There are very few swing seats, but I've nevertheless had a go at a target list.

Lib Dems:

Fleet East - their best chance of a gain.  Conservative held, but the Lib Dems won the 2019 seat on a 15.2% swing.  2019 was an exceptional high for the Lib Dems in Hart, so I expect them to be down on that, but the Tories require a 13.4% swing against their 2019 result to hold the seat.  Surely tough to ask for the Conservatives.

Hartley Witney - Conservative held.  Lib Dems require a 4.1% swing on their 2019 result.  As mentioned, the year was an exceptional high, so don't see them pulling it off.  However, they'll surely be putting effort in where perhaps they hadn't before, and one shouldn't underestimate the campaigning strength of the local Lib Dems.  An outside chance of a gain.  Interestingly, For Britain got 8.5% of the vote here last year.

Community Campaign Hart:

Fleet West - only chance of a gain, as they do not stand in all wards and are safe in the ones they hold.  Conservative held, but CCH won the 2019 and 2018 seats in this ward.  Conservatives require a 13.1% swing against their 2019 result to hold the seat.  Again, probably a bridge too far for the Tories.

Conservatives:

Just don't see any realistic targets for them.  Even if they win in Fleet West and Fleet East, they're only holding on to what they already have.  The Conservatives have won in Fleet Central and Yateley West in recent years, but only on a general election turnout.  Both currently require a 20% swing going by 2019.  Whatever happens, they won't be making up any lost ground this May.

Conclusion:

All other parties are also-rans.  Lib Dems likely to gain Fleet East; CCH likely to gain Fleet West; and maybe the Lib Dems can gain Hartley Witney.  No-one is going to gain a majority.  The real interest is in the negotiations after.  For some reason (maybe someone with knowledge of the area could chime in), it's a Lib Dem who is leader of the council, despite being the smaller party in the partnership with CCH.  Maybe CCH might decide it wants to lead after May!  Or either the Lib Dems or CCH decide to throw their lot in with the Conservatives instead?

[Khunanup]

Mar 8, 2020 17:36:20 GMT redvers said:

A correction to the above.  11 Community Campaign Hart, 11 Conservative, 10 Lib Dems, 1 Independent.  11 seats up for grabs.

One might think a council divided near equally between the parties might produce a lot of fascinating results.  You'd be wrong.  The Lib Dems and CCH do not stand against each other, and most wards are won with thumping majorities.  There are very few swing seats, but I've nevertheless had a go at a target list.

Lib Dems:

Fleet East - their best chance of a gain.  Conservative held, but the Lib Dems won the 2019 seat on a 15.2% swing.  2019 was an exceptional high for the Lib Dems in Hart, so I expect them to be down on that, but the Tories require a 13.4% swing against their 2019 result to hold the seat.  Surely tough to ask for the Conservatives.

Hartley Witney - Conservative held.  Lib Dems require a 4.1% swing on their 2019 result.  As mentioned, the year was an exceptional high, so don't see them pulling it off.  However, they'll surely be putting effort in where perhaps they hadn't before, and one shouldn't underestimate the campaigning strength of the local Lib Dems.  An outside chance of a gain.  Interestingly, For Britain got 8.5% of the vote here last year.

Community Campaign Hart:

Fleet West - only chance of a gain, as they do not stand in all wards and are safe in the ones they hold.  Conservative held, but CCH won the 2019 and 2018 seats in this ward.  Conservatives require a 13.1% swing against their 2019 result to hold the seat.  Again, probably a bridge too far for the Tories.

Conservatives:

Just don't see any realistic targets for them.  Even if they win in Fleet West and Fleet East, they're only holding on to what they already have.  The Conservatives have won in Fleet Central and Yateley West in recent years, but only on a general election turnout.  Both currently require a 20% swing going by 2019.  Whatever happens, they won't be making up any lost ground this May.

Conclusion:

All other parties are also-rans.  Lib Dems likely to gain Fleet East; CCH likely to gain Fleet West; and maybe the Lib Dems can gain Hartley Witney.  No-one is going to gain a majority.  The real interest is in the negotiations after.  For some reason (maybe someone with knowledge of the area could chime in), it's a Lib Dem who is leader of the council, despite being the smaller party in the partnership with CCH.  Maybe CCH might decide it wants to lead after May!  Or either the Lib Dems or CCH decide to throw their lot in with the Conservatives instead?

The additional point about Hartley Wintney (not Witney) is that it's part of a Lib Dem county council seat so has David Simpson as county councillor (since 2005) backing up our district council candidate. Hook could potentially be very interesting too as we were within 7 votes of getting the second seat from the Tories and the Independent won't be on the ballot paper in May.

I think the leadership may be on a rotation. Regardless, our relationship with CCH is very good (including with the one CCH county councillor who I served with on the Hampshire Fire Authority) and the non-agression pact will I'm sure continue (they both reach areas the others can't get into). The ultimate aim will be reducing the Conservatives to only one county councillor next year, wipe them out of Fleet and go from there.

[redvers]

Mar 8, 2020 19:00:02 GMT Khunanup said:

Mar 8, 2020 17:36:20 GMT redvers said:

A correction to the above.  11 Community Campaign Hart, 11 Conservative, 10 Lib Dems, 1 Independent.  11 seats up for grabs.

One might think a council divided near equally between the parties might produce a lot of fascinating results.  You'd be wrong.  The Lib Dems and CCH do not stand against each other, and most wards are won with thumping majorities.  There are very few swing seats, but I've nevertheless had a go at a target list.

Lib Dems:

Fleet East - their best chance of a gain.  Conservative held, but the Lib Dems won the 2019 seat on a 15.2% swing.  2019 was an exceptional high for the Lib Dems in Hart, so I expect them to be down on that, but the Tories require a 13.4% swing against their 2019 result to hold the seat.  Surely tough to ask for the Conservatives.

Hartley Witney - Conservative held.  Lib Dems require a 4.1% swing on their 2019 result.  As mentioned, the year was an exceptional high, so don't see them pulling it off.  However, they'll surely be putting effort in where perhaps they hadn't before, and one shouldn't underestimate the campaigning strength of the local Lib Dems.  An outside chance of a gain.  Interestingly, For Britain got 8.5% of the vote here last year.

Community Campaign Hart:

Fleet West - only chance of a gain, as they do not stand in all wards and are safe in the ones they hold.  Conservative held, but CCH won the 2019 and 2018 seats in this ward.  Conservatives require a 13.1% swing against their 2019 result to hold the seat.  Again, probably a bridge too far for the Tories.

Conservatives:

Just don't see any realistic targets for them.  Even if they win in Fleet West and Fleet East, they're only holding on to what they already have.  The Conservatives have won in Fleet Central and Yateley West in recent years, but only on a general election turnout.  Both currently require a 20% swing going by 2019.  Whatever happens, they won't be making up any lost ground this May.

Conclusion:

All other parties are also-rans.  Lib Dems likely to gain Fleet East; CCH likely to gain Fleet West; and maybe the Lib Dems can gain Hartley Witney.  No-one is going to gain a majority.  The real interest is in the negotiations after.  For some reason (maybe someone with knowledge of the area could chime in), it's a Lib Dem who is leader of the council, despite being the smaller party in the partnership with CCH.  Maybe CCH might decide it wants to lead after May!  Or either the Lib Dems or CCH decide to throw their lot in with the Conservatives instead?

The additional point about Hartley Wintney (not Witney) is that it's part of a Lib Dem county council seat so has David Simpson as county councillor (since 2005) backing up our district council candidate. Hook could potentially be very interesting too as we were within 7 votes of getting the second seat from the Tories and the Independent won't be on the ballot paper in May.

I think the leadership may be on a rotation. Regardless, our relationship with CCH is very good (including with the one CCH county councillor who I served with on the Hampshire Fire Authority) and the non-agression pact will I'm sure continue (they both reach areas the others can't get into). The ultimate aim will be reducing the Conservatives to only one county councillor next year, wipe them out of Fleet and go from there.

Thanks for the correction.  Was doing some Oxfordshire stuff as well, so clearly have Witney on my mind!

I did write up a paragraph on the intricacies of the Hook result, but then deleted it by accident and didn't feel like writing it again.  As you say, it was two seats up for grabs with a combined ballot.  The Independent got double the vote of the Tories, with the Conservatives down a whopping 42% from 2018. Lib Dems only behind by 7. However, in both 2016 and 2018, the Conservatives got around 64% of the vote. Surely, if no independent is standing, this ward will resume normal service as an ultra-Tory stronghold?

[Khunanup]

Mar 8, 2020 19:14:55 GMT redvers said:

Mar 8, 2020 19:00:02 GMT Khunanup said:

The additional point about Hartley Wintney (not Witney) is that it's part of a Lib Dem county council seat so has David Simpson as county councillor (since 2005) backing up our district council candidate. Hook could potentially be very interesting too as we were within 7 votes of getting the second seat from the Tories and the Independent won't be on the ballot paper in May.

I think the leadership may be on a rotation. Regardless, our relationship with CCH is very good (including with the one CCH county councillor who I served with on the Hampshire Fire Authority) and the non-agression pact will I'm sure continue (they both reach areas the others can't get into). The ultimate aim will be reducing the Conservatives to only one county councillor next year, wipe them out of Fleet and go from there.

Thanks for the correction.  Was doing some Oxfordshire stuff as well, so clearly have Witney on my mind!

I did write up a paragraph on the intricacies of the Hook result, but then deleted it by accident and didn't feel like writing it again.  As you say, it was two seats up for grabs with a combined ballot.  The Independent got double the vote of the Tories, with the Conservatives down a whopping 42% from 2018. Lib Dems only behind by 7. However, in both 2016 and 2018, the Conservatives got around 64% of the vote. Surely, if no independent is standing, this ward will resume normal service as an ultra-Tory stronghold?

It's difficult to tell. There was only one Lib Dem & one Indy and the two Tories got very close vote shares (within 16 votes of each other). This would have been very Remain too so that may make a difference. Obviously I don't know what our campaign will be looking like but I'd bet the more rural areas of the parliamentary seat would have seen a much bigger vote rise for us compared to the urban areas at the general election as in that part of the world Yateley & Fleet are relatively more Eurosceptic than the rural area to the west.

[redvers]

Mar 8, 2020 19:36:45 GMT Khunanup said:

Mar 8, 2020 19:14:55 GMT redvers said:

Thanks for the correction.  Was doing some Oxfordshire stuff as well, so clearly have Witney on my mind!

I did write up a paragraph on the intricacies of the Hook result, but then deleted it by accident and didn't feel like writing it again.  As you say, it was two seats up for grabs with a combined ballot.  The Independent got double the vote of the Tories, with the Conservatives down a whopping 42% from 2018. Lib Dems only behind by 7. However, in both 2016 and 2018, the Conservatives got around 64% of the vote. Surely, if no independent is standing, this ward will resume normal service as an ultra-Tory stronghold?

It's difficult to tell. There was only one Lib Dem & one Indy and the two Tories got very close vote shares (within 16 votes of each other). This would have been very Remain too so that may make a difference. Obviously I don't know what our campaign will be looking like but I'd bet the more rural areas of the parliamentary seat would have seen a much bigger vote rise for us compared to the urban areas at the general election as in that part of the world Yateley & Fleet are relatively more Eurosceptic than the rural area to the west.

Thanks for the insight, I'll be keeping an eye on that ward as well then.

Out of curiosity, what is it that has made the Lib Dems so successful locally in Hart, in what is otherwise one of the most Conservative areas at general elections?   Obviously the non-aggression pact with CCH helps, but I look at somewhere like Yateley and I can tell that isn't as naturally Lib Dem as the local results might suggest.  In 2015, on a general election turnout, the Conservatives took one ward, and in another your-now council leader survived by only 1 vote.  Yet, outside of a general election, your party normally romps to victory there.  What's the story?

[Khunanup]

Mar 8, 2020 19:48:15 GMT redvers said:

Mar 8, 2020 19:36:45 GMT Khunanup said:

It's difficult to tell. There was only one Lib Dem & one Indy and the two Tories got very close vote shares (within 16 votes of each other). This would have been very Remain too so that may make a difference. Obviously I don't know what our campaign will be looking like but I'd bet the more rural areas of the parliamentary seat would have seen a much bigger vote rise for us compared to the urban areas at the general election as in that part of the world Yateley & Fleet are relatively more Eurosceptic than the rural area to the west.

Thanks for the insight, I'll be keeping an eye on that ward as well then.

Out of curiosity, what is it that has made the Lib Dems so successful locally in Hart, in what is otherwise one of the most Conservative areas at general elections?   Obviously the non-aggression pact with CCH helps, but I look at somewhere like Yateley and I can tell that isn't as naturally Lib Dem as the local results might suggest.  In 2015, on a general election turnout, the Conservatives took one ward, and in another your-now council leader survived by only 1 vote.  Yet, outside of a general election, your party normally romps to victory there.  What's the story?

See Eastleigh...

More to the point, it's decades old. We've won wards there since the 80's. Even Yateley, which is the poorest part of the district, is very wealthy comparatively and so it's an area which would never be favourable for Labour but also ignored by the Fleet & rural centric council so pavement, localist politics thrived.

If not for the coalition there would have been no Tory win & no close shave. It's now back to the status quo. Lib Dem local, Tory national.