London Jul 8, 2019 16:50:25 GMT via mobile
Post by michael2019 on Jul 8, 2019 16:50:25 GMT
Of the myriad scenarios I've seen floated of the idea of a Green/Lib Dem pact at local or national levels, this is one of the most bizarre. Not least because of what we know about second-preference votes from last time.
There are a number of points. Firstly I was responding to the point that Khan was absolutely certain to win to try and map out a possible path where he could be beaten.
The pact was a tangential point. I think it might though be useful for both the greens and the Lib Dems. If we assume one might come second, they both need to catch up Khan. One can assume that getting second votes from others might be difficult with Tories and Brexit party supporting each other etc.
Last time more lib Dems supported labour with their second vote than greens and the same for the greens. Obviously both would need more going to them than Labour to overtake labour. So they need to change this and a pact *might* do it.
The advantages would be possibly winning, getting more of their policies especially on green policies implemented and the possibility of a high profile position even if they don't win but their pact partners do.
They both suffer from the problem that labour had become something of a one party state in many boroughs where lib Dems or greens have had representation in the past and this may unlock this.
Obviously under FPTP the best strategy on your competition as opposed to opposition, is to be nasty about them, crush them electorally and incorporate their voters into your coalition. (Labour on communists etc, Tories about Ukip etc.) Obviously to a degree lib Dems and greens are in competition for similar voters.
Obviously the risk is that the lib Dems or greens might big up the other to their own detriment but they have a common problem at borough level in Labour.
Often alternative/supplemental voting leads to some bizarre pacts. Ken Clarke and John Redwood in the Tory leadership. In the French Presidential elections the others against the NF. I appreciate that there is a very significant difference in that they were out of the race when they backed someone else!
But it is not unknown for politicians to be nasty about opponents and then have pacts when it suits them. I can see Berry saying that she dislikes the lib Dems on what they did in coalition etc. but we can get more for London environmentally if we work together.
But this is a question of the judgement of the parties. I would venture it's at least them having a serious think about it.