London

[overthehill]

Please move if this thread is in the wrong place.

It's been widely taken for granted that a Sadiq Khan re-election is almost a dead cert for May 2020, and the selection of a Conservative candidate with limited impact and profile will have  added to the sense of certainty here. Shiobahn Benita (Lib Dem candidate) seems to have an unbelievably low profile too. However the rate of really serious violence in London is for obvious reasons a cause for concern. Do people think there is any chance of an unexpected defeat for Sadiq Khan next year. Might the Tories or Lib Dems change their candidate? 

[rivers10]

Since the last mayoral election I've seen several of two types of opinion piece ascertaining to London.

One talking about how Epsom, Staines, Loughton, Cheshunt and Borehamwood are clearly London suburbs and should be allowed to vote for the mayor

The second talking about how Greater London is a big unwieldy mess and the good people of Orpington, Bromley, Coulsdon, Hampton, Ruislip, Stanmore, Woodford and Romford should be allowed to secede from it.

This tells me one of two things, one that "some" Tories are suggesting Gerrymandering the London elections by adding extra Tory bits or two that some are suggesting allowing the Tory voting outer bits to break free leaving a rump city centre Peoples Republic (sorry Chelsea, your the sacrificial lamb in this scenario)

Both scenarios, unlikely and fringe as they no doubt are, suggest the Tories are hardly brimming with confidence going into this fight.

[finsobruce]

Jul 7, 2019 18:55:53 GMT rivers10 said:

Since the last mayoral election I've seen several of two types of opinion piece ascertaining to London.

One talking about how Epsom, Staines, Loughton, Cheshunt and Borehamwood are clearly London suburbs and should be allowed to vote for the mayor

The second talking about how Greater London is a big unwieldy mess and the good people of Orpington, Bromley, Coulsdon, Hampton, Ruislip, Stanmore, Woodford and Romford should be allowed to secede from it.

This tells me one of two things, one that "some" Tories are suggesting Gerrymandering the London elections by adding extra Tory bits or two that some are suggesting allowing the Tory voting outer bits to break free leaving a rump city centre Peoples Republic (sorry Chelsea, your the sacrificial lamb in this scenario)

Both scenarios, unlikely and fringe as they no doubt are, suggest the Tories are hardly brimming with confidence going into this fight.

Well the first 'opinion piece' ignores the fact that those areas (and others) fought tooth and nail to avoid being absorbed into Greater London in 1964. I doubt local thoughts have changed much since then.

And the second is well, just ridiculous. And why Hampton in particular??? I can't imagine that Orpington and Bromley would really want to join Kent County Council and not at all sure that Kent would want them back for all sorts of reasons.

Nope. If they aren't careful the Lib Dems will be breathing down their necks for second.

[J.G.Harston]

Jul 7, 2019 19:27:53 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 7, 2019 18:55:53 GMT rivers10 said:

One talking about how Epsom, Staines, Loughton, Cheshunt and Borehamwood are clearly London suburbs and should be allowed to vote for the mayor

The second talking about how Greater London is a big unwieldy mess and the good people of Orpington, Bromley, Coulsdon, Hampton, Ruislip, Stanmore, Woodford and Romford should be allowed to secede from it.

Well the first 'opinion piece' ignores the fact that those areas (and others) fought tooth and nail to avoid being absorbed into Greater London in 1964. I doubt local thoughts have changed much since then.

And the second is well, just ridiculous. And why Hampton in particular??? I can't imagine that Orpington and Bromley would really want to join Kent County Council and not at all sure that Kent would want them back for all sorts of reasons.

Nope. If they aren't careful the Lib Dems will be breathing down their necks for second.

Years ago I read through commentaries from the early 1960s on the boroughs fighting to avoid being absorbed in 1964, and some that fought to get included. The discussion focussed on Croyden who had been denied City-Of-ship for some decades with the clear end game of swallowing them up.

[greenhert]

Jul 7, 2019 18:55:53 GMT rivers10 said:

Since the last mayoral election I've seen several of two types of opinion piece ascertaining to London.

One talking about how Epsom, Staines, Loughton, Cheshunt and Borehamwood are clearly London suburbs and should be allowed to vote for the mayor

The second talking about how Greater London is a big unwieldy mess and the good people of Orpington, Bromley, Coulsdon, Hampton, Ruislip, Stanmore, Woodford and Romford should be allowed to secede from it.

This tells me one of two things, one that "some" Tories are suggesting Gerrymandering the London elections by adding extra Tory bits or two that some are suggesting allowing the Tory voting outer bits to break free leaving a rump city centre Peoples Republic (sorry Chelsea, your the sacrificial lamb in this scenario)

Both scenarios, unlikely and fringe as they no doubt are, suggest the Tories are hardly brimming with confidence going into this fight.

Several of these were originally going to be included in Greater London, as it happens.

Romford UDC requested not to be included in the Greater London area back in 1963 but their request was denied (Coulsdon did not really want to be in Greater London either).

[rivers10]

Jul 7, 2019 19:27:53 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 7, 2019 18:55:53 GMT rivers10 said:

Since the last mayoral election I've seen several of two types of opinion piece ascertaining to London.

One talking about how Epsom, Staines, Loughton, Cheshunt and Borehamwood are clearly London suburbs and should be allowed to vote for the mayor

The second talking about how Greater London is a big unwieldy mess and the good people of Orpington, Bromley, Coulsdon, Hampton, Ruislip, Stanmore, Woodford and Romford should be allowed to secede from it.

This tells me one of two things, one that "some" Tories are suggesting Gerrymandering the London elections by adding extra Tory bits or two that some are suggesting allowing the Tory voting outer bits to break free leaving a rump city centre Peoples Republic (sorry Chelsea, your the sacrificial lamb in this scenario)

Both scenarios, unlikely and fringe as they no doubt are, suggest the Tories are hardly brimming with confidence going into this fight.

Well the first 'opinion piece' ignores the fact that those areas (and others) fought tooth and nail to avoid being absorbed into Greater London in 1964. I doubt local thoughts have changed much since then.

And the second is well, just ridiculous. And why Hampton in particular I can't imagine that Orpington and Bromley would really want to join Kent County Council and not at all sure that Kent would want them back for all sorts of reasons.

Nope. If they aren't careful the Lib Dems will be breathing down their necks for second.

To be fair other than the myriad "HAVERING IS ESSEX" pieces none of the things I read actually named anywhere in particular, they just talked about "outermost London suburbia" with its "very different profile and needs compared to inner London" which we all know is code for "the nice bits that don't vote Labour"

I just plucked those locales off the top of my head as examples of such.

[rivers10]

Jul 7, 2019 19:37:30 GMT greenhert said:

Jul 7, 2019 18:55:53 GMT rivers10 said:

Since the last mayoral election I've seen several of two types of opinion piece ascertaining to London.

One talking about how Epsom, Staines, Loughton, Cheshunt and Borehamwood are clearly London suburbs and should be allowed to vote for the mayor

The second talking about how Greater London is a big unwieldy mess and the good people of Orpington, Bromley, Coulsdon, Hampton, Ruislip, Stanmore, Woodford and Romford should be allowed to secede from it.

This tells me one of two things, one that "some" Tories are suggesting Gerrymandering the London elections by adding extra Tory bits or two that some are suggesting allowing the Tory voting outer bits to break free leaving a rump city centre Peoples Republic (sorry Chelsea, your the sacrificial lamb in this scenario)

Both scenarios, unlikely and fringe as they no doubt are, suggest the Tories are hardly brimming with confidence going into this fight.

Several of these were originally going to be included in Greater London, as it happens.

Romford UDC requested not to be included in the Greater London area back in 1963 but their request was denied (Coulsdon did not really want to be in Greater London either).

The key was that they didn't kick up enough of a fuss, Loughton, Chigwell, Epson and Walton were all due to be included as well but were so furious at the prospect that there was apparently packed, angry residents association meetings and wild talk of council tax boycotts (fat chance) so the government backed down.

This is presumably why there is that random sticky out bit in SW London otherwise known as Chessington. I wonder why they were ok being included?

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 7, 2019 19:27:53 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 7, 2019 18:55:53 GMT rivers10 said:

Since the last mayoral election I've seen several of two types of opinion piece ascertaining to London.

One talking about how Epsom, Staines, Loughton, Cheshunt and Borehamwood are clearly London suburbs and should be allowed to vote for the mayor

The second talking about how Greater London is a big unwieldy mess and the good people of Orpington, Bromley, Coulsdon, Hampton, Ruislip, Stanmore, Woodford and Romford should be allowed to secede from it.

This tells me one of two things, one that "some" Tories are suggesting Gerrymandering the London elections by adding extra Tory bits or two that some are suggesting allowing the Tory voting outer bits to break free leaving a rump city centre Peoples Republic (sorry Chelsea, your the sacrificial lamb in this scenario)

Both scenarios, unlikely and fringe as they no doubt are, suggest the Tories are hardly brimming with confidence going into this fight.

Well the first 'opinion piece' ignores the fact that those areas (and others) fought tooth and nail to avoid being absorbed into Greater London in 1964. I doubt local thoughts have changed much since then.

And the second is well, just ridiculous. And why Hampton in particular??? I can't imagine that Orpington and Bromley would really want to join Kent County Council and not at all sure that Kent would want them back for all sorts of reasons.

Nope. If they aren't careful the Lib Dems will be breathing down their necks for second.

In the case Staines and Sunbury, to the extent of seceding to Surrey i.e. to the barbarism of South Of The River, while Potters Bar went to Herts, when the rest of Middlesex became London Boroughs

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 7, 2019 20:39:57 GMT rivers10 said:

Jul 7, 2019 19:37:30 GMT greenhert said:

Several of these were originally going to be included in Greater London, as it happens.

Romford UDC requested not to be included in the Greater London area back in 1963 but their request was denied (Coulsdon did not really want to be in Greater London either).

The key was that they didn't kick up enough of a fuss, Loughton, Chigwell, Epson and Walton were all due to be included as well but were so furious at the prospect that there was apparently packed, angry residents association meetings and wild talk of council tax boycotts (fat chance) so the government backed down.

This is presumably why there is that random sticky out bit in SW London otherwise known as Chessington. I wonder why they were ok being included?

Presumably they thought being in London would lead to a world of adventures.

[edgbaston]

I suspect Kahn's 1st preference will be down but he will win by an even larger margin in the second round.

[finsobruce]

Jul 7, 2019 20:47:27 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jul 7, 2019 20:39:57 GMT rivers10 said:

The key was that they didn't kick up enough of a fuss, Loughton, Chigwell, Epson and Walton were all due to be included as well but were so furious at the prospect that there was apparently packed, angry residents association meetings and wild talk of council tax boycotts (fat chance) so the government backed down.

This is presumably why there is that random sticky out bit in SW London otherwise known as Chessington. I wonder why they were ok being included?

Presumably they thought being in London would lead to a world of adventures.

Didn't feel they were being taken for a ride then?

[finsobruce]

Jul 7, 2019 20:58:10 GMT edgbaston said:

I suspect Kahn's 1st preference will be down but he will win by an even larger margin in the second round.

Certainly will be if he doesn't spell his name correctly....

[finsobruce]

Jul 7, 2019 20:39:57 GMT rivers10 said:

Jul 7, 2019 19:37:30 GMT greenhert said:

Several of these were originally going to be included in Greater London, as it happens.

Romford UDC requested not to be included in the Greater London area back in 1963 but their request was denied (Coulsdon did not really want to be in Greater London either).

The key was that they didn't kick up enough of a fuss, Loughton, Chigwell, Epson and Walton were all due to be included as well but were so furious at the prospect that there was apparently packed, angry residents association meetings and wild talk of council tax boycotts (fat chance) so the government backed down.

This is presumably why there is that random sticky out bit in SW London otherwise known as Chessington. I wonder why they were ok being included?

You youngsters!

Rates, man, rates!

[jamie]

Khan is pretty much a dead cert for re-election. Will need to be closer to the election to work out 1st preferences (the current popularity of Not Labour/Conservative would give both parties a major hit if still present). Khan will blame the government for his problems and rightly so as the mayor has limited powers and the political parties essentially all agree on policy while crime is up by pretty much the same amount in the rest of England so it’s not a London specific problem.

[michael2019]

Jul 7, 2019 20:58:10 GMT edgbaston said:

I suspect Kahn's 1st preference will be down but he will win by an even larger margin in the second round.

There is a small path that could see him lose. Brexit goes badly for labour (and the Tories) the locals are even more a Brexit election than this year. The Lib Dems get into second place and pick up enough in the second round.

I am not saying this is likely just that it *is* now a possibility.

The LDs obv. won the Euros in London. And are ahead or second in subsamples for London for Westminster.

Khan was down to 43% in the last mayoral opinion poll (conducted at the same time as the locals) and he'll be doing well to stay above say 38% in coming opinion poll
Against the Lib Dems is arguably they have somewhat underperformed in London wide elections. They are weak on the ground in many London boroughs where they still have 0 councillors and they have traditionally relied on a stronger ground game where they win. And they face quite a strong Green challenge and Benita has yet to establish herself but she may begin to gain coverage if the Lib Dems move into second.

[andrew111]

Jul 7, 2019 23:02:13 GMT jamie said:

Khan is pretty much a dead cert for re-election. Will need to be closer to the election to work out 1st preferences (the current popularity of Not Labour/Conservative would give both parties a major hit if still present). Khan will blame the government for his problems and rightly so as the mayor has limited powers and the political parties essentially all agree on policy while crime is up by pretty much the same amount in the rest of England so it’s not a London specific problem.

Just as a matter of interest did you predict the correct winners in London in the Euro elections, and did you describe your prediction as a "dead cert"?

Khan obviously has by far the greatest name recognition but we need to wait to see if London voters will still want to kick Labour next May

[jamie]

Jul 7, 2019 23:14:22 GMT andrew111 said:

Just as a matter of interest did you predict the correct winners in London in the Euro elections, and did you describe your prediction as a "dead cert"?

Khan obviously has by far the greatest name recognition but we need to wait to see if London voters will still want to kick Labour next May

I don’t think I made a prediction but I probably would have said the Lib Dem’s looked likely to come top (probably not as well as they did though). 

I dont really see how Khan can lose. London is too far gone for the Conservatives at the moment, particularly if Brexit is still being discussed. The Lib Dem’s have always underperformed in devolved London elections and polling continues to show that (even the Greens were comfortably ahead in the last mayoral poll and start with a 3rd place from last time). The Greens won’t win but their leader will presumably take a lot of votes that would need to go Lib Dem in the 1st round for them to get in the top 2. The Lib Dem’s also don’t really have much to attack Khan on as he’s anti-Brexit and the Lib Dem’s are hardly going to attack him for not being authoritarian enough on crime. Brexit Party have got no chance. Who is he going to lose to? 

[Deleted]

Khan is not a dead cert but you'd be brave to bet against him.

London may want to give Labour a kicking and we could see Labour lose AMs like Andrew Dismore. But Khan is still relatively popular in comparison to any other national politician despite the increase in knife crime in London and as has already said he is very pro remain.

The Tories would be hard pressed to beat Labour I think. Its possible that the Greens or Lib Dems would be very transfer friendly but given at tge Tories very lowest in polls they still managed 2nd place 6 points above the Greens then itd be challenge to replace the Tories as the opposition

[timrollpickering]

Jul 7, 2019 20:39:57 GMT rivers10 said:

This is presumably why there is that random sticky out bit in SW London otherwise known as Chessington. I wonder why they were ok being included?

Chessington itself is some way up the, well just look at what it looks like on the map. The head is Malden Rushett.

Chessington was part of the old Surbiton borough and that boundary was inherited when both Epsom & Ewell and Esher succeeded in resisting incorporation. It reflects land use in the area. Here's a late 1940s map:



The woodland/farmland division is very noticeable from above:

[michael2019]

Jul 7, 2019 23:24:06 GMT jamie said:

Jul 7, 2019 23:14:22 GMT andrew111 said:

Just as a matter of interest did you predict the correct winners in London in the Euro elections, and did you describe your prediction as a "dead cert"?

Khan obviously has by far the greatest name recognition but we need to wait to see if London voters will still want to kick Labour next May

I don’t think I made a prediction but I probably would have said the Lib Dem’s looked likely to come top (probably not as well as they did though). 

I dont really see how Khan can lose. London is too far gone for the Conservatives at the moment, particularly if Brexit is still being discussed. The Lib Dem’s have always underperformed in devolved London elections and polling continues to show that (even the Greens were comfortably ahead in the last mayoral poll and start with a 3rd place from last time). The Greens won’t win but their leader will presumably take a lot of votes that would need to go Lib Dem in the 1st round for them to get in the top 2. The Lib Dem's also don’t really have much to attack Khan on as he’s anti-Brexit and the Lib Dem’s are hardly going to attack him for not being authoritarian enough on crime. Brexit Party have got no chance. Who is he going to lose to? 

The greens clearly are a problem for the Lib Dems but the Greens were only 1% ahead of them in 2016. The continual line from the Greens at the Euros was as they did better than the Lib Dems in the 2014 Euros they were the leading Remain party but it didn't stick (mostly) and people still plumped for the Lib Dems. The key will be for the Lib Dems to leapfrog the greens in the next mayoral opinion poll. One can also see the brcxit party taking a sizeable chunk of the Tory vote and so the Lib Dems get into second place. At which point as regards media coverage and the second vote it becomes interesting for them.

The last mayoral opinion poll was conducted at the time of the local elections so before *much* if not all of the Lib Dem and Brexit Party surge.

Khan can salvage some remain vote but as countless council, mayoral and parliamentary candidates can tell you - you are still very much reliant on what is happening at the national party and leaders level. I think prob an incumbent London mayor faces this problem the least but nevertheless still faces it.

And if he is lucky Khan won't be facing a Brexit problem but you have to say that's probably unlikely.

It has to be said that also there's a sizeable Jewish vote in London and (may be unfairly) they're likely to be reticent about backing Labour.