|
|
Post by Admin Twaddleford on Jan 2, 2020 17:57:15 GMT
West Midlands
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Jan 2, 2020 23:18:50 GMT
I think Andy Street stands a good chance here, whilst Labour will (probably) select a better candidate than last time, the Conservatives have been doing well lately across the county (perhaps with the exception of Birmingham).
The West Midlands Trains situation is interesting, though I doubt Street has much power to actually affect who runs the franchise. However, even posturing might make voters warm to him, if they feel he is making an effort. The only thing to note is many WMT commuters will be coming from Cannock, Worcester, Nuneaton, or other out of county locations, and so won't be able to vote (at least not directly, they may influence family members).
|
|
|
|
Post by polaris on Jan 3, 2020 14:50:12 GMT
I think Andy Street stands a good chance here, whilst Labour will (probably) select a better candidate than last time, the Conservatives have been doing well lately across the county (perhaps with the exception of Birmingham). The West Midlands Trains situation is interesting, though I doubt Street has much power to actually affect who runs the franchise. However, even posturing might make voters warm to him, if they feel he is making an effort. The only thing to note is many WMT commuters will be coming from Cannock, Worcester, Nuneaton, or other out of county locations, and so won't be able to vote (at least not directly, they may influence family members). How high a profile does Andy Street have?
As for Labour selecting a better candidate - haven't the Labour leadership been promoting Salma Yaqoob for the nomination? If she gets it, then a Tory landslide must be a nailed-on certainty.
|
|
|
|
Post by Admin Twaddleford on Jan 3, 2020 17:49:41 GMT
When Street won this in 2017 by just 0.8% I thought it was quite an extraordinary result, and that Labour would pick it up fairly easily next time. I suppose it could still happen, but I'm much more doubtful now.
|
|
|
|
Post by iang on Jan 3, 2020 18:10:05 GMT
By Metro Mayor standards, I think Andy Street does have a reasonable profile. He's fairly often on local news TV, the stuff that the Tories put out in my area of Brum seems to be largely Andy Street with gaps for referring to local cllrs / ward stuff, and therefore is presumably going out on a wider basis. Add to that the Tories did stunningly well across the urban West Mids / Black Country a few weeks ago, and that he has the potential to appeal to people who are not nailed on Tory voters. Of course, lots depends on what is happening nationally by May
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Er/ihn/ihm
Posts: 4,950 
|
Post by Foggy on Jan 3, 2020 20:27:44 GMT
Is there any reason this post is being contested again this year? I thought for a second I might've misremembered when the first such election took place, but Swan confirms above that it was definitely in 2017. Was that always the plan?
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Jan 3, 2020 20:40:45 GMT
By Metro Mayor standards, I think Andy Street does have a reasonable profile. He's fairly often on local news TV, the stuff that the Tories put out in my area of Brum seems to be largely Andy Street with gaps for referring to local cllrs / ward stuff, and therefore is presumably going out on a wider basis. Add to that the Tories did stunningly well across the urban West Mids / Black Country a few weeks ago, and that he has the potential to appeal to people who are not nailed on Tory voters. Of course, lots depends on what is happening nationally by May Though ironically, the sort of voters Andy Street appeals to (centre-right economically and fairly socially liberal) are almost the mirror image of the sort of Black Country voters the Tories are gaining ground with! |
|
Jack
Reform Party
Forever wondering why we didn't just join EFTA.
Posts: 6,064
Member is Online
|
Post by Jack on Jan 3, 2020 21:06:49 GMT
Is there any reason this post is being contested again this year? I thought for a second I might've misremembered when the first such election took place, but Swan confirms above that it was definitely in 2017. Was that always the plan? Yep. First term is three years and then four years after that. I can't remember why exactly. |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jan 3, 2020 22:55:03 GMT
By Metro Mayor standards, I think Andy Street does have a reasonable profile. He's fairly often on local news TV, the stuff that the Tories put out in my area of Brum seems to be largely Andy Street with gaps for referring to local cllrs / ward stuff, and therefore is presumably going out on a wider basis. Add to that the Tories did stunningly well across the urban West Mids / Black Country a few weeks ago, and that he has the potential to appeal to people who are not nailed on Tory voters. Of course, lots depends on what is happening nationally by May Though ironically, the sort of voters Andy Street appeals to (centre-right economically and fairly socially liberal) are almost the mirror image of the sort of Black Country voters the Tories are gaining ground with! Not sure you understand that part of the Black Country vote that well, it isn't particularly a left-wing area economically. Nor is it particularly socially illiberal except on the subject of immigration. It does operate under a code of Janteloven though in some parts. Street should win this but part of that will be down to which ever Labour opponent he gets. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2020 22:57:02 GMT
Another contest that was won marginally by Tories on a 11 point national lead in 2017
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Jan 3, 2020 23:16:16 GMT
Though ironically, the sort of voters Andy Street appeals to (centre-right economically and fairly socially liberal) are almost the mirror image of the sort of Black Country voters the Tories are gaining ground with! Not sure you understand that part of the Black Country vote that well, it isn't particularly a left-wing area economically. Nor is it particularly socially illiberal except on the subject of immigration. It does operate under a code of Janteloven though in some parts. Street should win this but part of that will be down to which ever Labour opponent he gets. Perhaps I misjudged it then - I assumed from the demographics it would have similar political attitudes to the stereotypically "left-behind" bits of County Durham and Teesside, which are generally left-leaning but rather populist-inclined and not particularly liberal. The best predictor of Brexit vote (which in turn seems to predict the direction different places are moving politically at the moment) is the proportion of people who identify as English not British, for which Bloxwich on the far northern fringe of the Black Country comes out most extreme. However I know you know the area much better than I do - my entire knowledge of the Black Country comes from browsing its statistics, a couple of days spent travelling around there and an away football game in Halesowen, which isn't really a substitute for actual nous. |
|
|
|
Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 4, 2020 9:55:20 GMT
Another contest that was won marginally by Tories on a 11 point national lead in 2017 The 2017 locals were very similar to the 2019 General Election - Tories winning in Blyth Valley, Teesside and the West Midlands. |
|
|
|
Post by Right Leaning on Jan 10, 2020 8:33:34 GMT
One of the most Labour areas (Birmingham) are not having elections in 2020, so that is likely to depress the turnout in the city, and therefore the Labour vote.
Andy Street's profile seems to have increased in the last few weeks.
I suspect he will hold on.
|
|
|
|
Post by nn2019 on Jan 11, 2020 19:37:03 GMT
Conservative hold - The Labour vote will be strong in Birmingham and to a lesser point Coventry and Wolverhampton.
|
|
|
|
Post by David Boothroyd on Feb 6, 2020 11:04:19 GMT
Liam Byrne wins the Labour selection. Huge sigh of relief that it's not Salma Yaqoob.
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group" - Douglas Adams
Posts: 4,978
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 6, 2020 11:24:47 GMT
Liam Byrne wins the Labour selection. Huge sigh of relief that it's not Salma Yaqoob. The more obviously "safe" choice with the electorate. But will the Momentumites turn out to help, given his "Blairite" past? |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Feb 6, 2020 11:26:44 GMT
Liam Byrne wins the Labour selection. Huge sigh of relief that it's not Salma Yaqoob. I wonder if she‘ll stand as an Indo. |
|
|
|
Post by syorkssocialist on Feb 6, 2020 11:30:45 GMT
Liam Byrne wins the Labour selection. Huge sigh of relief that it's not Salma Yaqoob. Indeed Yaqoob came dead last  |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,288
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 6, 2020 11:42:36 GMT
My prediction is that the Tories will walk this. Labour chose a particularly inept candidate last time, and I don't think anyone could describe Byrne in any other way. Street is competent and not overly partisan.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,288
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 6, 2020 11:46:41 GMT
Liam Byrne wins the Labour selection. Huge sigh of relief that it's not Salma Yaqoob. The more obviously "safe" choice with the electorate. But will the Momentumites turn out to help, given his "Blairite" past? Certainly not. I don't want him to win, because he is an incompetent fool. The Tories have a particularly good sitting candidate - taking politics out of the equation - and I can't imagine wanting to vote for anyone as useless as Byrne! I honestly don't know why Labour think they can succeed with such poor choices outside their safe seats. It's not about political ideology but ability. The mayoral role incorporates a lot of practical skills of bringing diverse people together. Byrne has a track record of being entirely incapable of this. I would have voted for Pete Lowe but sitting MPs always seem to have the edge in these contests. |
|
