Amber Valley

[Admin Twaddleford]

Lab majority
Elects by thirds
Current composition: Lab 24, Con 18, Grn 1, Oth 1, 1 vacant at the time of posting

[lackeroftalent]

Currently the council is Labour controlled after the 2019 elections with 24 councillors. The vacancy is from the death of a Labour councillor in November.

Opposition is the Conservatives with 18 councillors and one more currently suspended from the party. And then the lone Green.

Three losses and Labour lose the council. Four gains (maybe five required with the suspension) for the Conservatives to retake control.

Six of the fifteen wards up are currently represented by both Labour and Conservative members. General election result here was hugely Conservative.

Will clearly be a major target for the Tories.

2020 Seats

Labour are defending 11 Conservatives are defending 4

Alfreton

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.
2019 Won by Labour.

Belper Central

Def: Lab

2019 Won by Labour.

Belper North

Def: Lab

2019 Won by Labour.

Codnor & Waingroves

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

Heage & Ambergate

Def: Con

2019 Won by Labour.

Heanor & Loscoe

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

Heanor East

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Conservative.

Heanor West

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Conservative.

Ironville & Riddings

Def: Con

2018 Won by Labour.

Kilburn, Denby & Holbrook

Def: Con

2018 Won by Conservative.
2019 Won by Conservative.

Langley Mill & Aldercar

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

Ripley

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Conservative.
2019 Won by Conservative.

Ripley & Marehay

Def: Lab

2019 Won by Conservative.

Shipley Park, Horsley & Horsley Woodhouse

Def: Con

2018 Won by Conservative.

Somercotes (likely double election to fill vacancy)

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

[casualobserver]

Jan 2, 2020 22:56:06 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Currently the council is Labour controlled after the 2019 elections with 24 councillors. The vacancy is from the death of a Labour councillor in November.

Opposition is the Conservatives with 18 councillors and one more currently suspended from the party. And then the lone Green.

Three losses and Labour lose the council. Four gains (maybe five required with the suspension) for the Conservatives to retake control.

Six of the fifteen wards up are currently represented by both Labour and Conservative members. General election result here was hugely Conservative.

Will clearly be a major target for the Tories.

2020 Seats

Labour are defending 11 Conservatives are defending 4

Alfreton

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.
2019 Won by Labour.

Belper Central

Def: Lab

2019 Won by Labour.

Belper North

Def: Lab

2019 Won by Labour.

Codnor & Waingroves

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

Heage & Ambergate

Def: Con

2019 Won by Labour.

Heanor & Loscoe

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

Heanor East

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Conservative.

Heanor West

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Conservative.

Ironville & Riddings

Def: Con

2018 Won by Labour.

Kilburn, Denby & Holbrook

Def: Con

2018 Won by Conservative.
2019 Won by Conservative.

Langley Mill & Aldercar

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

Ripley

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Conservative.
2019 Won by Conservative.

Ripley & Marehay

Def: Lab

2019 Won by Conservative.

Shipley Park, Horsley & Horsley Woodhouse

Def: Con

2018 Won by Conservative.

Somercotes (likely double election to fill vacancy)

Def: Lab

2018 Won by Labour.

The two Heanor seats and the two Ripley seats all look to be pretty likely Conservative gains from Labour. To get the necessary fifth seat for overall control, however, the Conservatives will need to stretch themselves considerably, or facilitate unsuspension.

[mattb]

Jan 19, 2020 18:15:56 GMT casualobserver said:

The two Heanor seats and the two Ripley seats all look to be pretty likely Conservative gains from Labour. To get the necessary fifth seat for overall control, however, the Conservatives will need to stretch themselves considerably, or facilitate unsuspension.

They also need to defend Ironville & Riddings which was last won by Labour - though in the current circs frankly they will be expecting to win not only all the above but at least a couple of the Belper seats too, I would have thought.

[casualobserver]

Jan 19, 2020 19:21:02 GMT mattb said:

Jan 19, 2020 18:15:56 GMT casualobserver said:

The two Heanor seats and the two Ripley seats all look to be pretty likely Conservative gains from Labour. To get the necessary fifth seat for overall control, however, the Conservatives will need to stretch themselves considerably, or facilitate unsuspension.

They also need to defend Ironville & Riddings which was last won by Labour - though in the current circs frankly they will be expecting to win not only all the above but at least a couple of the Belper seats too, I would have thought.

The County Council election result achieved by the Conservatives in Belper wasn’t fully replicated a year later in the District elections. Nevertheless, times are changing and Belper can no longer be regarded as monolithically reliable for Labour.

[matureleft]

Jan 19, 2020 19:35:21 GMT casualobserver said:

Jan 19, 2020 19:21:02 GMT mattb said:

They also need to defend Ironville & Riddings which was last won by Labour - though in the current circs frankly they will be expecting to win not only all the above but at least a couple of the Belper seats too, I would have thought.

The County Council election result achieved by the Conservatives in Belper wasn’t fully replicated a year later in the District elections. Nevertheless, times are changing and Belper can no longer be regarded as monolithically reliable for Labour.

Belper has never been regarded as such. In fact it's only been in recent years that Labour has performed well here other than in nationally strong years. It's more arguable that the town has been trending Labour while much of the former mining (long ago) and industrial areas have been trending Tory.

[peterski]

The general election result was such a blowout here the Tories either must have carried every ward or only very narrowly lost in Labour citadels like Alfreton, Somercotes and Langley Mill and Aldercar. Heanor and Ripley are peak demographics for Boris Toryism so should be grabbed easily in the locals .

[conservativeestimate]

But the big swing to the Conservatives here in 2017 wasn't reflected in the locals.