Oxford

[Admin Twaddleford]

Lab majority
Whole council election
Current composition: Lab 34, LD 9, Grn 2, Oth 3

[bjornhattan]

Oxford is having all up elections this time. The new boundaries aren't actually massively different to the old ones - I might write them up in more detail closer to the time when certain variables are known (for example, will the independent councillor in Marston stand again). I'm going to go through and try to estimate how many seats each party could get, to see if it's plausible for the council to go NOC. I think Labour will struggle a little since the council have been subject to tactical voting in the past, and I'm probably splitting more wards than is realistic, so take my figures with a good pinch of salt.

Wolvercote ward remains reasonably similar to the current ward, whereas Summertown loses a small amount of ground in the west but this doesn't seem to contain many electors. Summertown is renamed to Cutteslowe and Sunnymead. The new Summertown ward is actually a successor to St. Margaret's, while North ward also remains but is renamed to Walton Manor. Holywell ward is unchanged, as is Hinksey Park, meaning the only material change in the west of the city is with Carfax/Jericho and Osney. The more working class end of Carfax is now grouped with the west of Oxford forming Osney and St Thomas, while the area with the bulk of the colleges is now in with Jericho, creating Carfax and Jericho. The former should be safe Labour but the latter will be closely fought. Jericho was a Green target, but Carfax became a close Labour-Lib Dem battle by the end of its existence meaning Carfax and Jericho is probably pretty unpredictable.

Total West of the Cherwell: Lab 7, LD 8, Grn 1 would be my guess.

Further East, plenty more wards are unchanged. Marston and St Clements see no change at all, while Headington Hill and Northway gains the area around the hospital which makes it look horribly gerrymandered, but probably doesn't affect its voting patterns. Headington, Churchill, Quarry and Risinghurst, and Barton and Sandhills all see minimal change too, though Headington and Quarry and Risinghurst do gain small parts of Barton and Sandhills which is one of the very safe Labour working class wards - it might make the Lib Dem task when holding Quarry just a little harder.

North East of the city: Lab 9 LD 3 Grn 1 Ind 1 (if he stands)

The South East of the city has a few more substantive changes, but yet again remains broadly similar to last time. St Mary's gains some of the more Green friendly areas in Iffley Fields, which probably makes that seat safe. The successor to Iffley Fields is far less likely to go Green though, since it will be taking in northern Cowley Marsh. Donnington will probably have a clear majority of the population from ethnic minority groups and will have the most Muslims of any ward in the city, since it combines the most ethnically diverse parts of two already diverse wards. The rest of Cowley Marsh combines with southern Lye Valley to form Temple Cowley, with the rest of Lye Valley remaining its own ward. Cowley then shifts west, taking in the far north of Littlemore, which is very safe Labour territory. What remains of Littlemore might be at least a little interesting, since it becomes even more Brexity, and becomes the city's most WWC ward (perhaps even more than the Leys). Littlemore has had a decent Conservative vote in the past, so throwing the kitchen sink at the area might just see Oxford return its first Conservative for many years. But I doubt it.

Blackbird Leys, Northfield Brook, and Rose Hill and Iffley all have no material changes and will all be utterly safe for Labour.

South East of the city: Lab 16 Grn 2

Estimated result: Lab 32, LD 11, Grn 4, Ind 1.

Even in the worst case for Labour, they probably won't lose control, but you can never be certain.

[jacoblamsden]

How come Labour's been so good at holding onto the much of the WWC vote in the East of Oxford compared to virtually everywhere else in the SE region? I'm just thinking of the number of 'council estate' wards in Kent/E.Sussex which have gradually been swinging to the Conservatives but there is little sense of it here.

[bjornhattan]

Jan 28, 2020 18:41:51 GMT jacoblamsden said:

How come Labour's been so good at holding onto the much of the WWC vote in the East of Oxford compared to virtually everywhere else in the SE region? I'm just thinking of the number of 'council estate' wards in Kent/E.Sussex which have gradually been swinging to the Conservatives but there is little sense of it here.

A few factors may be involved: the first is that the culture is clearly different. Even in the most WWC wards in Oxford, most estimates put the Leave vote at fairly modest levels. You're looking at maybe 55% in Blackbird Leys, 50% in Northfield Brook, and 45% in Littlemore or Barton (probably similar in similar bits of other wards like Rose Hill or Northway). I would suggest that reflects the overall political culture in these wards being less populist in nature (notwithstanding the odd surge for the Independent Working Class Association). Secondly, Andrew Smith, the MP for Oxford East from 1987 to 2017, lived on Blackbird Leys, and even the current MP lives in Rose Hill, so Labour are more rooted to those sorts of communities - Oxford Labour do seem to understand the importance of local candidates. In addition, these wards are actually pretty diverse. Even as far back as the 1971 Census, Blackbird Leys had a reasonably large Black population (which is still around today, and has clearly settled in since it's one of the most mixed race wards in Britain). There are no working class wards in Oxford which are essentially homogenous, like you might find in Kent or Sussex. Lastly, while I can't prove it, I suspect Labour may be good at playing the town vs gown card. Traditionally the wards with most Oxford students have been Lib Dem or Green, so it's possible Labour have presented themselves as the party of town.

All of these explanations are tentative, but they're all possible factors involved.