Post by casualobserver on Feb 25, 2020 2:00:13 GMT
I cannot easily join the dots in explaining what places like Bedworth, parts of Durham, parts of Doncaster, much of Stoke and numerous other areas around the country have in common. But some socio-economically deprived locations (mostly with relatively low ethnic minority populations) which have had little or no Conservative Party tradition in any of our lifetimes have been trending Conservative over the last decade or two at a remarkable rate.
I'm well aware that other types of area are trending the other way. But the decline of the link in some parts of the country between socio-economic deprivation and automatic overwhelming support for the Labour Party is stark.
Throughout the Borough we see signs of greater comparative success for the Conservatives than in much of the rest of the country. But it's so much more in your face in Bedworth, where a strong thread of visceral antipathy to the Labour Party has been developing in recent years.
But it's so much more in your face in Bedworth, where a strong thread of visceral antipathy to the Labour Party has been developing in recent years.
I've mentioned on here before that I was in Nuneaton days before the 2015 GE: that was the point that I knew Cameron had it in the bag. The antipathy to, and almost unspoken loathing of, the Labour Party was palpable. Hard to define as you say.
In order to get a measure of what 2020 may bring, we need to look at the 2016 results and do one simple thing. Add the Con and UKIP vote together. Doing that we see that Labour polled 40% and the Conservatives polled 48% and in 2018 the Conservatives polled 51% to Labour's 36%, therefore a reasonable guess would be halfway between those two (Con 50%, Lab 38%) therefore I believe the following seats will be GAINS:
Con GAINS from Lab: Attleborough, Bar Pool, Bulkington, Camp Hill, Exhall, Kingswood
which would make the council Con 22, Lab 11, Green 1
Labour held Camp Hill pretty comfortably in 2018, though the general election would have been closer. They also held Bar Pool and Kingswood by smaller margins. On the other hand something has gone very wrong for Labour in Bedworth since 2016, so the Conservatives must be targeting everything there.
andrewteale looking at the 2016 results for Nuneaton and Bedworth on LEAP it looks like the results for Slough and St Nicholas wards are swapped, and Slough should be Tory blue on the map.
Should be fixed now (you might need to press F5 to reload the maps).