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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Jan 1, 2020 21:44:57 GMT
NOC - Lab minority administration
Elects by halves
Current composition: Lab 17, Con 14, Grn 1, Oth 2
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Post by Joseph Bevan on Jan 21, 2020 22:13:11 GMT
Just for a bit of interest, I'm standing here for Labour in Arbury.
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,169 
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 21, 2020 22:24:40 GMT
Just for a bit of interest, I'm standing here for Labour in Arbury. you should really be pointing at a hole in the ground then, not at a tube track.  |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 21, 2020 22:55:51 GMT
Just for a bit of interest, I'm standing here for Labour in Arbury. So we see in your avatar .....Standing and pointing. Are those railway potholes by chance? |
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 21, 2020 23:01:03 GMT
Whilst I wish Joseph Bevan luck, are there any signs Labour will improve on 2018 here? |
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,169
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 22, 2020 9:13:17 GMT
Just for a bit of interest, I'm standing here for Labour in Arbury. So we see in your avatar .....Standing and pointing. Are those railway potholes by chance? He's a sleeper.... |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2020 9:26:11 GMT
So we see in your avatar .....Standing and pointing. Are those railway potholes by chance? He's a sleeper.... Ah! Embedded. A pun my word, I fear a rash of new absurd references in train. |
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,169
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 22, 2020 13:52:56 GMT
Ah! Embedded. A pun my word, I fear a rash of new absurd references in train. You have made several good points there. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2020 14:10:54 GMT
Ah! Embedded. A pun my word, I fear a rash of new absurd references in train. You have made several good points there. I am always prepared to switch if it ties in with the argument. |
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finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,169
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 22, 2020 14:14:47 GMT
You have made several good points there. I am always prepared to switch if it ties in with the argument. Anything to strike a chord with the electorate. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2020 14:20:04 GMT
I am always prepared to switch if it ties in with the argument. Anything to strike a chord with the electorate. I'm inclined to think you are on a banker with that remark, give or take need for a little buffering. |
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 19, 2020 7:05:45 GMT
Before the 2016 elections the Conservatives held only 3 Seats to Labour's 28. 2016 was disappointing for us: we lost quite a few seats narrowly and only won 5 that year to Labour's 11.
2018 changed all that, of course!
With the opinionpolls as they are at the moment, and the amount of work several candidates are putting in, I confidently expect the Conservatives to gain control in May for only the second time in the Borough's 46 year history -that other time being 2008 under Marcus Jones, who's now one of the three Conservative MPs re-elected in the Borough, all with five figure majorities.
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 19, 2020 23:05:23 GMT
Before the 2016 elections the Conservatives held only 3 Seats to Labour's 28. 2016 was disappointing for us: we lost quite a few seats narrowly and only won 5 that year to Labour's 11. 2018 changed all that, of course! With the opinionpolls as they are at the moment, and the amount of work several candidates are putting in, I confidently expect the Conservatives to gain control in May for only the second time in the Borough's 46 year history -that other time being 2008 under Marcus Jones, who's now one of the three Conservative MPs re-elected in the Borough, all with five figure majorities. Electoral Calculus has every ward down in the Conservative column at the general election. I don't really believe that, but only Abbey and Wem Brook seem like they might have been held by Labour. Possibly Camp Hill or Bede too, but the former will have seen one of the largest swings in the country. |
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 20, 2020 23:29:36 GMT
Before the 2016 elections the Conservatives held only 3 Seats to Labour's 28. 2016 was disappointing for us: we lost quite a few seats narrowly and only won 5 that year to Labour's 11. 2018 changed all that, of course! With the opinionpolls as they are at the moment, and the amount of work several candidates are putting in, I confidently expect the Conservatives to gain control in May for only the second time in the Borough's 46 year history -that other time being 2008 under Marcus Jones, who's now one of the three Conservative MPs re-elected in the Borough, all with five figure majorities. Electoral Calculus has every ward down in the Conservative column at the general election. I don't really believe that, but only Abbey and Wem Brook seem like they might have been held by Labour. Possibly Camp Hill or Bede too, but the former will have seen one of the largest swings in the country. I think you're spot on bjornhattan, especially in respect of the size of the swing in Camp Hill |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
has voted for the Green Party for the first time at a Westminster General Election
Posts: 2,000
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 23, 2020 20:45:43 GMT
In order to get a measure of what 2020 may bring, we need to look at the 2016 results and do one simple thing. Add the Con and UKIP vote together. Doing that we see that Labour polled 40% and the Conservatives polled 48% and in 2018 the Conservatives polled 51% to Labour's 36%, therefore a reasonable guess would be halfway between those two (Con 50%, Lab 38%) therefore I believe the following seats will be GAINS:
Con GAINS from Lab: Attleborough, Bar Pool, Bulkington, Camp Hill, Exhall, Kingswood
which would make the council Con 22, Lab 11, Green 1
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 23, 2020 21:28:32 GMT
In order to get a measure of what 2020 may bring, we need to look at the 2016 results and do one simple thing. Add the Con and UKIP vote together. Doing that we see that Labour polled 40% and the Conservatives polled 48% and in 2018 the Conservatives polled 51% to Labour's 36%, therefore a reasonable guess would be halfway between those two (Con 50%, Lab 38%) therefore I believe the following seats will be GAINS: Con GAINS from Lab: Attleborough, Bar Pool, Bulkington, Camp Hill, Exhall, Kingswood which would make the council Con 22, Lab 11, Green 1 It seems incredibly unlikely that 100% of the UKIP vote will go to the Conservatives. |
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unrepentantfool
Socialist
Politically homeless but not politically inactive :D
Posts: 908
Member is Online
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Post by unrepentantfool on Feb 23, 2020 22:44:43 GMT
In order to get a measure of what 2020 may bring, we need to look at the 2016 results and do one simple thing. Add the Con and UKIP vote together. Doing that we see that Labour polled 40% and the Conservatives polled 48% and in 2018 the Conservatives polled 51% to Labour's 36%, therefore a reasonable guess would be halfway between those two (Con 50%, Lab 38%) therefore I believe the following seats will be GAINS: Con GAINS from Lab: Attleborough, Bar Pool, Bulkington, Camp Hill, Exhall, Kingswood which would make the council Con 22, Lab 11, Green 1 It seems incredibly unlikely that 100% of the UKIP vote will go to the Conservatives. I think it depends on how successful Brexit is seen to be if any of the ex-UKIP goes to them at all. |
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 23, 2020 23:18:27 GMT
In order to get a measure of what 2020 may bring, we need to look at the 2016 results and do one simple thing. Add the Con and UKIP vote together. Doing that we see that Labour polled 40% and the Conservatives polled 48% and in 2018 the Conservatives polled 51% to Labour's 36%, therefore a reasonable guess would be halfway between those two (Con 50%, Lab 38%) therefore I believe the following seats will be GAINS: Con GAINS from Lab: Attleborough, Bar Pool, Bulkington, Camp Hill, Exhall, Kingswood which would make the council Con 22, Lab 11, Green 1 Labour held Camp Hill pretty comfortably in 2018, though the general election would have been closer. They also held Bar Pool and Kingswood by smaller margins. On the other hand something has gone very wrong for Labour in Bedworth since 2016, so the Conservatives must be targeting everything there. andrewteale looking at the 2016 results for Nuneaton and Bedworth on LEAP it looks like the results for Slough and St Nicholas wards are swapped, and Slough should be Tory blue on the map. |
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 24, 2020 22:38:53 GMT
In order to get a measure of what 2020 may bring, we need to look at the 2016 results and do one simple thing. Add the Con and UKIP vote together. Doing that we see that Labour polled 40% and the Conservatives polled 48% and in 2018 the Conservatives polled 51% to Labour's 36%, therefore a reasonable guess would be halfway between those two (Con 50%, Lab 38%) therefore I believe the following seats will be GAINS: Con GAINS from Lab: Attleborough, Bar Pool, Bulkington, Camp Hill, Exhall, Kingswood which would make the council Con 22, Lab 11, Green 1 Labour held Camp Hill pretty comfortably in 2018, though the general election would have been closer. They also held Bar Pool and Kingswood by smaller margins. On the other hand something has gone very wrong for Labour in Bedworth since 2016, so the Conservatives must be targeting everything there. andrewteale looking at the 2016 results for Nuneaton and Bedworth on LEAP it looks like the results for Slough and St Nicholas wards are swapped, and Slough should be Tory blue on the map. Cheers, will take a look. |
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 25, 2020 1:47:41 GMT
It seems incredibly unlikely that 100% of the UKIP vote will go to the Conservatives. I think it depends on how successful Brexit is seen to be if any of the ex-UKIP goes to them at all. I now understand why you use the word unrepentant in your name. |
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