Stroud

[Admin Twaddleford]

NOC - Lab-Grn-LD administration
Whole council election
Current composition: Con 22, Lab 16, Grn 9, LD 2, Oth 2

[European Lefty]

My first stab at predicting exactly how this could go, I'm sure predictions will change as we know more details

Stroud (17)
I've included some of the surrounding area. Thanks to Brexit and the traditional Green strength here, I expect Labour to get punished. A lot my depend on what impact MSC's candidacy has had on the Greens' reputation. The surrounding countryside is quite posh but not completely sheltered from the Stroud alternative effect. I'm sure there are other posters here who know this area better than me.

Stroud Central (1): Should be a Green seat and only won by Labour by 7 votes in 2016. The incumbent is also the councillor I had to block on Facebook for sharing "vaccines cause autism posts". I imagine not being full-blown remain punished Labour here at the GE and will continue to do so. Green GAIN from Labour.
Stroud Uplands (1): Labour beat the Green by a long way, and it is naturally more Labour than Green. The incumbent is also popular, but sadly I don't see us holding this in the present conditions. Green GAIN from Labour
Stroud Slade (1): The Green is the group leader, and if we get punished I the way I expect, he won't be challenged. Green HOLD
Stroud Valley (1): Should be safe Green. Green HOLD
Stroud Trinity (1): Safe for both the present incumbent and the party. Green HOLD
Stroud Farmhill & Paganhill (1): By far and away the Tories' and leave's strongest ward in Stroud. I don't see anything other than a Tory win. Con HOLD
Thrupp (1): Safe Green. Green HOLD
Amberley & Woodchester (1): Similar to the West Cotswolds area with lots of rich yet quite liberal voters. They still mostly vote Tory and I don't think that will change yet. Conservative HOLD
Randwick, Whiteshill & Ruscombe (1): Safe Green. Green HOLD
Cainscross (3): Safe Labour. Might swing to the Greens but not enough for them to start winning seats. 3x Labour HOLD
Stonehouse (3): Safe Labour. Probably saw a large swing to the Tories at the GE but should be different with Brexit not on the ballot paper. 3x Labour HOLD
Rodborough (2): Should still be a Labour seat, although the Greens might consolidate their defection. 2 X Labour HOLD (for now)
Total: 2 Con, 8 Lab, 7 Green

West Cotswolds (12)
Very, very rich for the most part but also remain-voting and quite liberal. The Greens are the main opposition and there are a lot of voters here who would be LibDem-Con swing voters or LibDem locally and Con nationally if they were almost anywhere else in the country: here the Greens replace the LibDems, but a LibDem revival is not impossible.

Painswick & Upton (3): The Queen of the Cotswolds. Painswick is eye-wateringly rich and even the Brexit issues won't help anyone take a seat here, although the Greens might close the gap and/or the LibDems might make a comeback. 3X Conservative HOLD
Bisley (1): (reasonably) safe Conservative. Greens are the main challengers and might close the gap but won't win. Conservative HOLD
Chalford (3): One of the interesting ones. Safe Tory on the past BUT only thanks to a split opposition. I expect that to be less split thanks to Brexit (this ward almost certainly voted to remain) and there may even be some Con to Green switchers. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict one Green seat. 2X Conservative HOLD, 1X Green GAIN from Conservative
Minchinhampton (2): Another interesting one. The Greens gained the county seat in 2017 by 27 votes, although that probably came from Thrupp ward. They are the main opposition but I suspect it is too Tory for a seat to fall. 2X Conservative HOLD
Nailsworth (3): Historically Tory on a split vote, the county division (which also contains Rodborough) was Labour's only gain in Gloucestershire in 2017. Last time, us and the Greens only had a slate between us which complicates matters. With full slates each, I each party could win a seat or it could be unchanged. Whether the aborted attempt to introduce car parking charges will have an effect is unknown. For now, I'll stick with no change. 2X Labour HOLD, 1X Green HOLD
Total: 8 Con, 2 Lab, 2 Green

Severnside (8)
Three very different wards down the bank of the Severn: probably more than provided the Tory majority at the GE.

Berkeley Vale (3): Once upon a time, Labour would have had a decent shot at this, but the rural villages outvoting Berkeley and Sharpness, plus a likely Brexit-inspired Tory swing of huge proportions puts this out of reach. 3X Conservative HOLD
Hardwicke (3): A slightly bizarre mix of Conservative village and conservative suburb. And independent could make things interesting but until the SOPN is out I'll stick with three Tory seats. 3X Conservative HOLD
Severn (2): Rich. Farmers. Brexiteers. Won't even be a contest. 2X Conservative HOLD
Total: 8 Con


South (14)
The area where I actually live, it's fairly marginal between the Tories and the current governing alliance. I have been a bit out of the loop recently, but I still know some of what goes on here. I have a feeling that results in Cam and Dursley might well decide who controls the council after the election.

Dursley (3): Labour have the partisan edge and three popular councillors. Would have been interesting to watch at the GE, but I think we should hold all three here. 3X Labour HOLD
Cam East (2): I have a bad feeling about both Cam wards. Both almost certainly went Tory at the GE and the new builds probably won't favour us. A north-South split would work better for Labour. 1X Conservative HOLD, 1X Conservative GAIN from Labour
Cam West (2): See above. 1X Conservative HOLD, 1X Conservative GAIN from Labour
Kingswood (1): I know very little about this area, which possibly ought to be in South Glos. I'm surprised  by how close it was last time, but I'm going to stick with the Tories here. Conservative HOLD
Coaley & Uley (1): Another area where people might vote Green but never Labour. It would also be safe for the incumbent anyway. Green HOLD
Wootton-Under-Edge (3): Probably remain. The Green win was a surprise, but from what I hear she's been quite good so should hold. The top LibDem is very safe and more than doubled his running mate's total in 2016. Always struck me as professional and competent when I've dealt with him. So he will also hold. The third seat is more interesting, and I would think decided on a purely partisan basis. I'm going to go for a LibDem hold. 2X LibDem HOLD, 1X Green HOLD
The Stanleys (2): If both incumbents stand again, they will win. 1X Conservative HOLD, 1X Labour HOLD
Total: 6 Con, 4 Lab, 2 Green, 2 LD

Overall Total: 24 Con, 14 Lab, 11 Green, 2 LD

[European Lefty]

David Drew is standing in Farmhill & Paganhill which makes the seat interesting.

[David Boothroyd]

He has quite a history as a Stroud district councillor. Seems to have narrowly missed out when first standing in Cainscross in 1984, then served as councillor for Stonehouse from 1987-95. After losing the Parliamentary seat he was elected in Farmhill and Paganhill in 2011, but stood down in 2015.

[bjornhattan]

Mar 7, 2020 12:57:06 GMT European Lefty said:

David Drew is standing in Farmhill & Paganhill which makes the seat interesting.

It's also a bit surprising to see it dismissed as safe Conservative - on paper Labour should be very competitive there. Barring possibly Slade, it's the most working class and economically deprived ward in the town. Depending on where the independent votes came from, it's possible that 2016's results might be a bit misleading.

[jamie]

Mar 7, 2020 13:37:38 GMT bjornhattan said:

Mar 7, 2020 12:57:06 GMT European Lefty said:

David Drew is standing in Farmhill & Paganhill which makes the seat interesting.

It's also a bit surprising to see it dismissed as safe Conservative - on paper Labour should be very competitive there. Barring possibly Slade, it's the most working class and economically deprived ward in the town. Depending on where the independent votes came from, it's possible that 2016's results might be a bit misleading.

My quick look at deprivation has it basically tied with 3 other wards, but your point still stands. It really stands out how much stronger Labour are in all the neighbouring and, at least on 1st glance, demographically similar wards. 

[bjornhattan]

Mar 7, 2020 13:49:37 GMT jamie said:

Mar 7, 2020 13:37:38 GMT bjornhattan said:

It's also a bit surprising to see it dismissed as safe Conservative - on paper Labour should be very competitive there. Barring possibly Slade, it's the most working class and economically deprived ward in the town. Depending on where the independent votes came from, it's possible that 2016's results might be a bit misleading.

My quick look at deprivation has it basically tied with 3 other wards, but your point still stands. It really stands out how much stronger Labour are in all the neighbouring and, at least on 1st glance, demographically similar wards. 

At a guess, the Conservatives may be able to win by portraying Labour (and the Greens) as the party of central Stroud. I do have a couple of mates from the area (specifically Stonehouse and Chalford) and apparently the town has a tension almost like a town vs gown divide. Presumably Farmhill and Paganhill would very much be the former.

[jacoblamsden]

Mar 7, 2020 13:59:30 GMT bjornhattan said:

Mar 7, 2020 13:49:37 GMT jamie said:

My quick look at deprivation has it basically tied with 3 other wards, but your point still stands. It really stands out how much stronger Labour are in all the neighbouring and, at least on 1st glance, demographically similar wards. 

At a guess, the Conservatives may be able to win by portraying Labour (and the Greens) as the party of central Stroud. I do have a couple of mates from the area (specifically Stonehouse and Chalford) and apparently the town has a tension almost like a town vs gown divide. Presumably Farmhill and Paganhill would very much be the former.

But I'd have thought that in those circumstances, David Drew seems a sensible choice of candidate. He is a Stonehouse man and not at all like many of the central 'Stroudies' you are talking about - but of course he was still able to get significant support from them in GE's. 
I've got to know Gloucestershire better since my son/daughter-in-law moved to Cheltenham (Charlton Park ward) from Bexleyheath last month - they aren't particularly political but say Alex Chalk (Cheltenham) and Siobhan Baillie (Stroud) are very impressive and are 'cabinet material' - I'd actually have to agree. They visited Stroud for the first time last weekend and weren't particularly impressed, it was apparently a bit of a let down compared to Cirencester and Tewkesbury which they love. 

[iain]

I don’t know about Baillie but Chalk certainly isn’t cabinet material. He’s not bad, just extremely average.

[andrewp]

Mar 7, 2020 16:24:53 GMT iain said:

I don’t know about Baillie but Chalk certainly isn’t cabinet material. He’s not bad, just extremely average.

He’s always comes across as competent. He’s the sort of Conservative who could hold Cheltenham at the moment. An ERG type wouldn’t have held it.

[neilm]

Mar 7, 2020 13:37:38 GMT bjornhattan said:

Mar 7, 2020 12:57:06 GMT European Lefty said:

David Drew is standing in Farmhill & Paganhill which makes the seat interesting.

It's also a bit surprising to see it dismissed as safe Conservative - on paper Labour should be very competitive there. Barring possibly Slade, it's the most working class and economically deprived ward in the town. Depending on where the independent votes came from, it's possible that 2016's results might be a bit misleading.

I know almost nothing about Stroud, but is Slade the same as Slad (of Laurie Lee fame), with an alternate spelling?

[European Lefty]

Mar 7, 2020 13:37:38 GMT bjornhattan said:

Mar 7, 2020 12:57:06 GMT European Lefty said:

David Drew is standing in Farmhill & Paganhill which makes the seat interesting.

It's also a bit surprising to see it dismissed as safe Conservative - on paper Labour should be very competitive there. Barring possibly Slade, it's the most working class and economically deprived ward in the town. Depending on where the independent votes came from, it's possible that 2016's results might be a bit misleading.

from my experience canvassing there especially at the referendum even the areas that should be vote sinks for Labour were either actively hostile to us or not voting at all. It's definitely an area where the politics defy the demographics.

[matureleft]

Mar 8, 2020 1:36:47 GMT European Lefty said:

Mar 7, 2020 13:37:38 GMT bjornhattan said:

It's also a bit surprising to see it dismissed as safe Conservative - on paper Labour should be very competitive there. Barring possibly Slade, it's the most working class and economically deprived ward in the town. Depending on where the independent votes came from, it's possible that 2016's results might be a bit misleading.

from my experience canvassing there especially at the referendum even the areas that should be vote sinks for Labour were either actively hostile to us or not voting at all. It's definitely an area where the politics defy the demographics.

David was fairly strongly Remain was he not? However I have yet to be convinced that that would be the determining factor in a well-fought local election. I’m personally glad he’s keen to stay involved in politics.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 7, 2020 16:46:09 GMT andrewp said:

Mar 7, 2020 16:24:53 GMT iain said:

I don’t know about Baillie but Chalk certainly isn’t cabinet material. He’s not bad, just extremely average.

He’s always comes across as competent. He’s the sort of Conservative who could hold Cheltenham at the moment. An ERG type wouldn’t have held it.

From the description in these two posts he sounds a step above most of the actual cabinet...😉

[European Lefty]

Mar 8, 2020 9:09:05 GMT matureleft said:

Mar 8, 2020 1:36:47 GMT European Lefty said:

from my experience canvassing there especially at the referendum even the areas that should be vote sinks for Labour were either actively hostile to us or not voting at all. It's definitely an area where the politics defy the demographics.

David was fairly strongly Remain was he not? However I have yet to be convinced that that would be the determining factor in a well-fought local election. I’m personally glad he’s keen to stay involved in politics.

Yes and no. He is, at heart, a traditional lefty Eurosceptic although I believe he did vote to remain. He wasn't on board with the people's vote at the beginning and was actually quite scathing about it but he did come on board earlier than the party as a whole but did get everything short of an endorsement from the various pro-EU groups including Stroud for Europe in December. I don't think it will have much impact at all on the local election, he will win or lose on a combination of his personal reputation and the party reputation.

It's also worth pointing out that the incumbent may have his own personal vote here. I certainly know my mum spoke quite highly of him when she was on the council, which means he must have be quite good, although of course that doesn't necessarily transfer over to the local electorate.