Gloucester

[Admin Twaddleford]

Con majority of 1
Whole council election
Current composition: Con 20, Lab 9, LD 9, Oth 1

[peterl]

With a one seat Tory majority, this must be one of the most interesting elections in the south west next year, so let's get the ball rolling.

Seats with less than a 200 vote majority in 2016*:
*In multi-seat wards, the difference between the lowest scoring elected and highest scoring non-elected candidates. Wards where UKIP a close second excluded due to UKIP's collapse.

Barnwood - 4 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Moreland - 12 votes - Labour over Conservative
Quedgeley Severn Vale - 16 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Podsmead - 28 votes - Labour over Conservative
Coney Hill - 48 votes - Labour over Lib Dem
Grange - 117 votes - Conservative over Labour
Kingsway - 124 votes - Conservative over Labour
Tuffley - 166 votes - Conservative over Labour

Top three targets for each party:

Conservative:

Barnwood - 5 votes to gain
Moreland - 13 votes to gain
Quedgeley Severn Vale - Defence - 16 vote majority

Lib Dem:

Barnwood - Defence - 4 vote majority
Quedgeley Severn Vale - 17 votes to gain
Coney Hill - 49 votes to gain

Labour:

Moreland - Defence - 12 vote majority
Podsmead - Defence - 28 vote majority
Coney Hill - Defence - 48 vote majority

Recent by elections:

Longlevens November 3rd 2016 - Con Hold - Con 1,066, Lib Dem 852, Labour 233, UKIP 167
Barnwood July 25th 2019 - Lib Dem Gain from Con - Lib Dem 676, Con 496, Brexit 152, Labour 64, Green 59, UKIP 6
Podsmead July 25th 2019 - Lib Dem Gain from Labour - Lib Dem 203, Con 200, Labour 122, Brexit 111, Green 29, UKIP 11

[greenhert]

Jul 26, 2020 19:16:06 GMT peterl said:

With a one seat Tory majority, this must be one of the most interesting elections in the south west next year, so let's get the ball rolling.

Seats with less than a 200 vote majority in 2016*:
*In multi-seat wards, the difference between the lowest scoring elected and highest scoring non-elected candidates. Wards where UKIP a close second excluded due to UKIP's collapse.

Barnwood - 4 votes - Lib Dem over Conservative
Moreland - 12 votes - Labour over Conservative
Quedgeley Severn Vale - 16 votes - Conservative over Lib Dem
Podsmead - 28 votes - Labour over Conservative
Coney Hill - 48 votes - Labour over Lib Dem
Grange - 117 votes - Conservative over Labour
Kingsway - 124 votes - Conservative over Labour
Tuffley - 166 votes - Conservative over Labour

There are boundary changes here which will have an impact.

The boundary changes were for the 2016 election when Gloucester switched to full council elections. There are no ward boundary changes scheduled in Gloucester for 2021.

[peterl]

Excellent, thanks for that, I've removed the reference to boundary changes. Details of target seats for each party and by elections since 2016 have also now been added.

[European Lefty]

Gloucester was also one of Labour's better results in this kind of seat at the general election.

Basically, if Labour manage to go backwards, we're in real, real trouble. 2016 essentially reduced us to our safe seats. We should be looking to pick up Grange and Tuffley and knock the third Tory out in Barton, although I'm surprised at that margin in Kingsway - I suppose there's a chance but I wouldn't think it's a major target. Beyond that, we should also be looking at Westgate on a really good day.

The LibDems have historic strength in Longlevens, and came reasonably close in the county seat in 2017 so they'll be looking very carefully at that. They will also be looking at the second seat in Barnwood, which also overlaps with their tricky county defence of Barnwood & Hucclecote. With that margin they will also be targeting Quedgeley Severn Vale. However, if their Brexit stance is going to still be considered, it will go down very badly in Gloucester and they'll find themselves on the defensive. They should hold Kingsholm, Hucclecote and Elmsbridge but aren't guaranteed anything else and if they have to defend those wards it will distract from any gains they might be looking to make.

The worst case scenario for the Tories is only holding onto the four seats in Abbeymead and Abbeydale, but that is virtually impossible Their ceiling is essentially their current tally plus the other Barnwood seat - two of the wards that provide their general election majority are in LibDem hands. I would expect them to drop five seats - one to the LibDems in Barnwood and 4 of the 6 available in Kingsway, Grange and Tuffley.

Again, caveats of waiting for candidates; covid; a year is a long time in politics etc.

[iain]

I wouldn’t be confident of Labour increasing their numbers - you have long underperformed in Gloucester CC elections. I would expect the Tories to hold their Barton seat if Sajid Patel stands again, I’d be mildly surprised if you regain Podsmead, and you’ll be on the defensive in Coney Hill. I’m not sure you’ll get anything in Tuffley or Grange either - you haven’t won Tuffley since 2002, and have only won a seat in Grange once since then.