Reading

[conservativeestimate]

Feb 25, 2020 13:32:08 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 25, 2020 12:57:07 GMT redvers said:

On a complete aside, pity the Lib Dems. By May 2010, they held 9 seats, having swept Tilehurst, Katesgrove and Redlands. Now they're down to the 2 in Tilehurst, and don't have a realistic target outside that. Had the Lib Dem advance in Reading continued, I wonder where they would have targeted next?

They probably would have tried to get Thames and Peppard(Thames would be a long shot because of the generally illiberal WWC Henley Road area,Peppard they used to hold). Potentially Mapledurham as well on a localist-type campaign. The problem is their "heartland" in Reading is split in both Woodley, Tilehurst and Earley between the Borough and West Berks/Wokingham,which makes it difficult to campaign and win when the councils are taking completely different approaches and led by completely different administrations. If I was them,I'd focus on West Berks wards like Purley,Theale and Tilehurst and Wokingham wards like Coronation (a long shot),Loddon and South Lake.Perhaps consolidate their hold on Tilehurst and target Peppard as a long shot now. The reason they have receded in Reading is partly because of the national coalition and partly because they went in coalition with the Tories at a local level and their administration was as unpopular as the Labour administration(Redingensians love a good moan about the council though).

Nobody "genuinely illiberal" thinks of themself as such.

[European Lefty]

Feb 25, 2020 12:50:00 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 25, 2020 12:32:31 GMT redvers said:

Katesgrove and Redlands are transient places.  Lots of students, renters, e.t.c.  Not too many people left from when they were Lib Dem wards.  Nevertheless, your central point is accurate - the current large Labour majority aside, it's entirely possible for the Greens to win there, though it'll be harder than Redlands or Park.

Part of the problem in Redlands was the unpopular candidate though. There are some students in Katesgrove but not as many as in Redlands because that's where the UoR's London Road Campus is. Park has part of Whitenights campus and the UoWL's Reading campus. 

All the student accommodation is in either Redlands, or Wokingham Borough.

[Chris from Brum]

Feb 25, 2020 15:34:49 GMT European Lefty said:

Feb 25, 2020 12:50:00 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Part of the problem in Redlands was the unpopular candidate though. There are some students in Katesgrove but not as many as in Redlands because that's where the UoR's London Road Campus is. Park has part of Whitenights campus and the UoWL's Reading campus. 

All the student accommodation is in either Redlands, or Wokingham Borough.

From what I can tell, the borough boundary passes between the hot and cold food counters in the canteen and bisects the main admin block.

My son had a room in St Pat's on Northcourt Avenue.  That was definitely in Reading borough.

[European Lefty]

Feb 25, 2020 15:40:20 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Feb 25, 2020 15:34:49 GMT European Lefty said:

All the student accommodation is in either Redlands, or Wokingham Borough.

From what I can tell, the borough boundary passes between the hot and cold food counters in the canteen and bisects the main admin block.

My son had a room in St Pat's on Northcourt Avenue.  That was definitely in Reading borough.

Yep, Redlands ward, just over the road from me. I haven't yet worked out exactly where the boundary is, but it does run right through the campus.

[tonyhill]

We used to do a lot of printing for Reading LibDems in the early 2000s, mostly for Peppard and Thames. I can't remember whether we had councillors in Thames, but Peppard was solidly LibDem for years until we lost it to the Tories. I haven't done anything since 2007, but I would guess that, as is often the case, if a long-standing councillor loses they take it as an opportunity to give up activism, and the ward organisation which probably they had built and maintained falls away too. The LibDems are particularly vulnerable to this.

[J.G.Harston]

Feb 25, 2020 15:44:45 GMT European Lefty said:

Feb 25, 2020 15:40:20 GMT Chris from Brum said:

From what I can tell, the borough boundary passes between the hot and cold food counters in the canteen and bisects the main admin block.

My son had a room in St Pat's on Northcourt Avenue.  That was definitely in Reading borough.

Yep, Redlands ward, just over the road from me. I haven't yet worked out exactly where the boundary is, but it does run right through the campus.

The most recent large-scale map on old-maps is 1971, but it clearly shows the borough boundary running through the university buildings.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 25, 2020 15:08:15 GMT jacoblamsden said:

Feb 25, 2020 13:32:08 GMT unrepentantfool said:

They probably would have tried to get Thames and Peppard(Thames would be a long shot because of the generally illiberal WWC Henley Road area,Peppard they used to hold). Potentially Mapledurham as well on a localist-type campaign. The problem is their "heartland" in Reading is split in both Woodley, Tilehurst and Earley between the Borough and West Berks/Wokingham,which makes it difficult to campaign and win when the councils are taking completely different approaches and led by completely different administrations. If I was them,I'd focus on West Berks wards like Purley,Theale and Tilehurst and Wokingham wards like Coronation (a long shot),Loddon and South Lake.Perhaps consolidate their hold on Tilehurst and target Peppard as a long shot now. The reason they have receded in Reading is partly because of the national coalition and partly because they went in coalition with the Tories at a local level and their administration was as unpopular as the Labour administration(Redingensians love a good moan about the council though).

What part of Thames ward have Labour been doing better recently in that means its considered a potential target? I can't imagine that 'generally illiberal WWC' areas are too great for the party so they must be gaining ground elsewhere. What's the rest of the ward like?

You've got the Hemdean Rd/Hemdean Bottom area which was very Remain and middle-class and the school cuts campaign has helped there as many of their kids go to Caversham Primary, which is struggling with the cuts. The Heights next door is a very rich part of Reading full of mansions, but it is the type of demographic that is very Remain and woke and fertile for Labour at the moment.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 25, 2020 15:34:49 GMT European Lefty said:

Feb 25, 2020 12:50:00 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Part of the problem in Redlands was the unpopular candidate though. There are some students in Katesgrove but not as many as in Redlands because that's where the UoR's London Road Campus is. Park has part of Whitenights campus and the UoWL's Reading campus. 

All the student accommodation is in either Redlands, or Wokingham Borough.

There's private student accommodation in Park because I canvassed and definitely some in Katesgrove because of London Road campus. I think there's Unite Students
halls next door to the campus on Crown Place.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 25, 2020 15:34:00 GMT conservativeestimate said:

Feb 25, 2020 13:32:08 GMT unrepentantfool said:

They probably would have tried to get Thames and Peppard(Thames would be a long shot because of the generally illiberal WWC Henley Road area,Peppard they used to hold). Potentially Mapledurham as well on a localist-type campaign. The problem is their "heartland" in Reading is split in both Woodley, Tilehurst and Earley between the Borough and West Berks/Wokingham,which makes it difficult to campaign and win when the councils are taking completely different approaches and led by completely different administrations. If I was them,I'd focus on West Berks wards like Purley,Theale and Tilehurst and Wokingham wards like Coronation (a long shot),Loddon and South Lake.Perhaps consolidate their hold on Tilehurst and target Peppard as a long shot now. The reason they have receded in Reading is partly because of the national coalition and partly because they went in coalition with the Tories at a local level and their administration was as unpopular as the Labour administration(Redingensians love a good moan about the council though).

Nobody "genuinely illiberal" thinks of themself as such.

Generally not genuinely. And some people are actually proud racists in Reading. Even in such a multicultural town, we have an active EDL branch.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 25, 2020 15:40:20 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Feb 25, 2020 15:34:49 GMT European Lefty said:

All the student accommodation is in either Redlands, or Wokingham Borough.

From what I can tell, the borough boundary passes between the hot and cold food counters in the canteen and bisects the main admin block.

My son had a room in St Pat's on Northcourt Avenue.  That was definitely in Reading borough.

Yep Northcourt Avenue is going to be or is in Church ward at the moment.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 25, 2020 17:09:28 GMT tonyhill said:

We used to do a lot of printing for Reading LibDems in the early 2000s, mostly for Peppard and Thames. I can't remember whether we had councillors in Thames, but Peppard was solidly LibDem for years until we lost it to the Tories. I haven't done anything since 2007, but I would guess that, as is often the case, if a long-standing councillor loses they take it as an opportunity to give up activism, and the ward organisation which probably they had built and maintained falls away too. The LibDems are particularly vulnerable to this.

Yeah and they can't really try to build back up now with their newly enlarged membership because the Revoke policy will have not gone down well in Brexity Caversham Park Village. Thames hasn't had LD councillors for as long as I can remember but you are right about Peppard being a recent decline. As they lost Peppard, I reckon they had no reason to keep organisation and resources North of the River and they refocused on Wokingham wards and both Reading/West Berks wards in Reading West.

[bjornhattan]

Feb 26, 2020 3:48:23 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 25, 2020 17:09:28 GMT tonyhill said:

We used to do a lot of printing for Reading LibDems in the early 2000s, mostly for Peppard and Thames. I can't remember whether we had councillors in Thames, but Peppard was solidly LibDem for years until we lost it to the Tories. I haven't done anything since 2007, but I would guess that, as is often the case, if a long-standing councillor loses they take it as an opportunity to give up activism, and the ward organisation which probably they had built and maintained falls away too. The LibDems are particularly vulnerable to this.

Yeah and they can't really try to build back up now with their newly enlarged membership because the Revoke policy will have not gone down well in Brexity Caversham Park Village. Thames hasn't had LD councillors for as long as I can remember but you are right about Peppard being a recent decline. As they lost Peppard, I reckon they had no reason to keep organisation and resources North of the River and they refocused on Wokingham wards and both Reading/West Berks wards in Reading West.

To be fair, going off that you'd be very surprised to find a lot of Lib Dems in Tilehurst. There you have a ward which is almost all hard territory for a Revoke Party - going off Bjorn's book of demographic cliches, it seems like classic white van man territory.

[yellowperil]

Feb 26, 2020 6:16:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 26, 2020 3:48:23 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Yeah and they can't really try to build back up now with their newly enlarged membership because the Revoke policy will have not gone down well in Brexity Caversham Park Village. Thames hasn't had LD councillors for as long as I can remember but you are right about Peppard being a recent decline. As they lost Peppard, I reckon they had no reason to keep organisation and resources North of the River and they refocused on Wokingham wards and both Reading/West Berks wards in Reading West.

To be fair, going off that you'd be very surprised to find a lot of Lib Dems in Tilehurst. There you have a ward which is almost all hard territory for a Revoke Party - going off Bjorn's book of demographic cliches, it seems like classic white van man territory.

You must know a different Tilehurst to me (and I think both the part within Reading Borough and that in West Berks are quite varied) but my younger son lives in Tilehust , just inside the Reading boundary, having relatively recently moved out there from just off the Oxford Road in Norcot) and might be quite surprised to hear it described as WVM territory. And given that the LDs were winning on 47% in Tilehurst in May2019 that is a pretty strange post. I think I could find you "quite a lot of Lib Dems" in Tilehurst, or at very least prepared to vote that way, at the height of revokemania. I have a feeling that you might be describing some bits of Tilehurst over the border into WB.

[bjornhattan]

Feb 26, 2020 7:10:28 GMT yellowperil said:

Feb 26, 2020 6:16:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

To be fair, going off that you'd be very surprised to find a lot of Lib Dems in Tilehurst. There you have a ward which is almost all hard territory for a Revoke Party - going off Bjorn's book of demographic cliches, it seems like classic white van man territory.

You must know a different Tilehurst to me (and I think both the part within Reading Borough and that in West Berks are quite varied) but my younger son lives in Tilehust , just inside the Reading boundary, having relatively recently moved out there from just off the Oxford Road in Norcot) and might be quite surprised to hear it described as WVM territory. And given that the LDs were winning on 47% in Tilehurst in May2019 that is a pretty strange post. I think I could find you "quite a lot of Lib Dems" in Tilehurst, or at very least prepared to vote that way, at the height of revokemania. I have a feeling that you might be describing some bits of Tilehurst over the border into WB.

The bit of Tilehurst in Reading lies mainly east of School Lane. It's the ward's demographics which point to a fairly big Brexit vote - relatively high numbers of people without qualifications (but still often with decent jobs), a fairly old population, rather ethnically homogenous, and mainly identifying as English not British. All of those are relative to the borough (on a national level those indicators are basically average in Tilehurst but not compared to Reading). I still reckon the Remain vote would have been north of 40%, so it's not as if there are no Revokers, but fewer than the rest of town.

[yellowperil]

Feb 25, 2020 15:40:20 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Feb 25, 2020 15:34:49 GMT European Lefty said:

All the student accommodation is in either Redlands, or Wokingham Borough.

From what I can tell, the borough boundary passes between the hot and cold food counters in the canteen and bisects the main admin block.

My son had a room in St Pat's on Northcourt Avenue.  That was definitely in Reading borough.

My son had a room in Pats  back in the late 8o's, As indeed did I myself in the early 60's. And my granddaughter much more recently, not in Pats but more or less next door. 

[yellowperil]

Feb 26, 2020 7:34:13 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 26, 2020 7:10:28 GMT yellowperil said:

You must know a different Tilehurst to me (and I think both the part within Reading Borough and that in West Berks are quite varied) but my younger son lives in Tilehust , just inside the Reading boundary, having relatively recently moved out there from just off the Oxford Road in Norcot) and might be quite surprised to hear it described as WVM territory. And given that the LDs were winning on 47% in Tilehurst in May2019 that is a pretty strange post. I think I could find you "quite a lot of Lib Dems" in Tilehurst, or at very least prepared to vote that way, at the height of revokemania. I have a feeling that you might be describing some bits of Tilehurst over the border into WB.

The bit of Tilehurst in Reading lies mainly east of School Lane. It's the ward's demographics which point to a fairly big Brexit vote - relatively high numbers of people without qualifications (but still often with decent jobs), a fairly old population, rather ethnically homogenous, and mainly identifying as English not British. All of those are relative to the borough (on a national level those indicators are basically average in Tilehurst but not compared to Reading). I still reckon the Remain vote would have been north of 40%, so it's not as if there are no Revokers, but fewer than the rest of town.

I am always sceptical of alleged demographic statistics. Given your characterisation, do you not find it odd that 

(a)Tilehurst ward is , and has nearly always been, by some margin the strongest Lib Dem ward in the Borough (not that that is saying all that much in a Borough they have never been that strong)
(b) having twice lost the ward to the Tories in recent years,2016 and 2018, and the ward having become pretty much a Tory/ LibDem marginal, the May 2019 result was such a thumping Lib Dem win in the context of an election at the height of europhobia/ revokemania.

[Pete Whitehead]

No it isn't odd at all - the clue is in the fact that it has 'always' been an area of strong Liberal/Lib Dem support and therefore people are not voting in local elections primarily (if at all) on those issues. There are strong Lib Dem wards in eg. Watford and Three Rivers (Woodside, Abbots Langley etc) and other examples too numerous to mention, which would have voted Leave by a similar kind of margin. There were also massive Lib Dem wins in heavily Leave voting wards in Sunderland or eg Knottingley where it's fair to say that enthusiasm for the Lib Dem Brexit policy wasn't the main driver. Also there is nothing 'alleged' about demographic statistics - these are obviously based on census returns. They will never be 100% accurate of course but are at least broadly so and while they may be rather out of date now due to changing demographics over the last 8/9 years, this is probably less true of somewhere like Tilehurst than other more transient areas

[bjornhattan]

Feb 26, 2020 7:59:08 GMT yellowperil said:

Feb 26, 2020 7:34:13 GMT bjornhattan said:

The bit of Tilehurst in Reading lies mainly east of School Lane. It's the ward's demographics which point to a fairly big Brexit vote - relatively high numbers of people without qualifications (but still often with decent jobs), a fairly old population, rather ethnically homogenous, and mainly identifying as English not British. All of those are relative to the borough (on a national level those indicators are basically average in Tilehurst but not compared to Reading). I still reckon the Remain vote would have been north of 40%, so it's not as if there are no Revokers, but fewer than the rest of town.

I am always sceptical of alleged demographic statistics. Given your characterisation, do you not find it odd that 

(a)Tilehurst ward is , and has nearly always been, by some margin the strongest Lib Dem ward in the Borough (not that that is saying all that much in a Borough they have never been that strong)
(b) having twice lost the ward to the Tories in recent years,2016 and 2018, and the ward having become pretty much a Tory/ LibDem marginal, the May 2019 result was such a thumping Lib Dem win in the context of an election at the height of europhobia/ revokemania.

It's definitely possible that there's been change there in the last few years, especially since Reading is a relatively transient borough with lots of people moving in and out. But I think the census is a more reliable guide to knowing how an area actually thinks about the issues than local election results. Those variables I mentioned above explain about 90% of the variance in EU referendum support between areas. On the other hand, a strong Lib Dem presence can mean anything - you know yourself that your party know how to run a solid ground game. In Sunderland, for example, there was a time when the three Lib Dem wards were the two most pro-Leave and the most pro-Remain in the city.

I'd want to know about the sorts of literature being delivered locally before making that call. If the leaflets are all focusing on Brexit, I might buy your theory, but I strongly suspect the local party rarely bring it up in that particular area.

[yellowperil]

Census data is now a decade out of date and in my experience Tilehurst is changing fast- like a lot of places that were very stable suburbs occupied by people who moved there en masse as young families and are now dying off fast. It is exactly the sort of place therefore where I think I am right to be sceptical about the "alleged" demographics, looked very stable in 2011 maybe, but doubt it will look like that in 2021. I'm not relying on the demographic statistics but taking my experience on the ground, and in the last few years I have spent quite a lot of time in Reading in those two areas, along the Oxford Road mainly in Norcot and in Tilehurst, and while Tilehurst is still not exactly the Oxford Road it is definitely changing. Maybe my experience on the ground may exaggerate the degree of change in that the circles I move in are exactly those moving, I accept that, but relying on pretty antique census data willalso be pretty misleading, I'm sure. I personally have known Reading for a very long time, having lived there myself for a bit in the early sixties, having a son living there in the eighties, and now both my son back there for the 21st century and now my granddaughter living on the other side of town.

[jacoblamsden]

You are probably right about Tilehurst - I don't know it at all, but I am always struck on this forum about how many areas are allegedly 'changing', a process usually taken to mean the influx of a younger population. But with the constant national debate about an 'aging population', there must be more places in the country where the average age is going up rather than going down and at least some of these must be in the south-east.