Post by redvers on Feb 20, 2020 12:31:58 GMT
I would say Kentwood is a lot more vulnerable than Church because there are a lot of University staff living in Church and a recent planning application on Northcourt Avenue was denied by the council to the great relief of a lot of locals,as Kentwood is a very white working class seat (unlike Church which is much more mixed) and we've lost there the past few years, badly. As for Tilehurst, the LD's will probably hold on because they gained last year with the exceedingly popular community campaign Ricky Duveen and this year,the Lib Dem councillor is up for re-election who is quite popular and has good name recognition as the perennial Lib Dem candidate in Reading West. It's also the part of Reading West where national politics will play a role- Brexit is not generally popular round there compared to the WWC estates nearby in Calcot, Norcot,Kentwood and Southcote.
Thanks for the analysis, and good luck to your mum!
The previous Labour candidate aside, the trouble is the Greens now have their foothold in Redlands. Assuming their councillor has been visible and active, they've now built up an infrastructure in the ward, and if the Green takeover in Park ward is anything to go by then they'll start mopping up more of the Labour vote. I see it as a pretty dead-cert gain by the Greens in May. The trouble is, once they secure Redlands, they'll look to expand further by going to somewhere like Katesgrove.
I was hesistant to even include Church. It clearly has potential for the Tories but Labour just has too much of a cushion to make this a really viable prospect for them this year. Clearly Kentwood is the best chance the Tories have of a gain, and it's a decent enough chance. The best chance Labour has of a gain is in Thames. An outside chance, but the fact Thames is even being talked about as a Labour target shows just how much Labour has advanced in Caversham generally over the last decade.