Reading

[Admin Twaddleford]

Lab majority
Elects by thirds
Current composition: Lab 30, Con 10, Grn 4, LD 2

[redvers]

This has a poll but there's not a chance this will be anything other than a Labour hold. However, a drop in the Labour majority is likely.

Starting with east Reading, as I know that far better:

Likely Green gain - Redlands. Formely a Labour stronghold, the Greens managed to gain a foothold last year by winning with a 10% majority. Rightly or wrong, the council has a poor reputation in these parts, and whilst Green votes went tactical at the general election, I don't see a realistic path to Labour holding the ward locally this time round.

Outside chance of a Labour gain - Thames. Having turned the Caversham ward from a Labour-Tory marginal into a fairly strongish Labour ward, Labour may have a chance at converting the neighbouring ward of Thames. Thames is traditionally much more Conservative than Caversham, but the same demographic changes that helped Labour secure Caversham are also at play in Thames. The Tories only had an 8.8% majority last time, and word is Labour overperformed here at the general election. Still don't quite see it pulling off, but certainly still one to watch.

Outside chance of a Tory gain - Church. Church is the most Brexiter of the Labour wards in east Reading. Traditionally, this has been a Labour-Tory marginal, and word is Labour underperformed here at the general election. However, the last result was an over 23% majority, so pretty tough to ask!

All other wards in east Reading as before.

As for west Reading, which I know far less well:

Possible Tory gain - Kentwood. Kentwood most recently had a by-election the same day as the general, and the Tories won the day with 400 votes. The ward is currently 2 Tories and 1 Labour, and the lone Labour is up for re-election. If it was general election turnout, Labour would be dead, but should save the day at a local election.

Outside chance of a Tory gain - Tilehurst. Currently 2 Lib Dems, 1 Conservative. Don't know anything about this ward other than the fact its mix of Lib Dems and Tories would suggest the Tories may have a chance at grabbing another Lib Dem seat.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 19, 2020 13:17:58 GMT redvers said:

This has a poll but there's not a chance this will be anything other than a Labour hold. However, a drop in the Labour majority is likely.

Starting with east Reading, as I know that far better:

Likely Green gain - Redlands. Formely a Labour stronghold, the Greens managed to gain a foothold last year by winning with a 10% majority. Rightly or wrong, the council has a poor reputation in these parts, and whilst Green votes went tactical at the general election, I don't see a realistic path to Labour holding the ward locally this time round.

Outside chance of a Labour gain - Thames. Having turned the Caversham ward from a Labour-Tory marginal into a fairly strongish Labour ward, Labour may have a chance at converting the neighbouring ward of Thames. Thames is traditionally much more Conservative than Caversham, but the same demographic changes that helped Labour secure Caversham are also at play in Thames. The Tories only had an 8.8% majority last time, and word is Labour overperformed here at the general election. Still don't quite see it pulling off, but certainly still one to watch.

Outside chance of a Tory gain - Church. Church is the most Brexiter of the Labour wards in east Reading. Traditionally, this has been a Labour-Tory marginal, and word is Labour underperformed here at the general election. However, the last result was an over 23% majority, so pretty tough to ask!

All other wards in east Reading as before.

As for west Reading, which I know far less well:

Possible Tory gain - Kentwood. Kentwood most recently had a by-election the same day as the general, and the Tories won the day with 400 votes. The ward is currently 2 Tories and 1 Labour, and the lone Labour is up for re-election. If it was general election turnout, Labour would be dead, but should save the day at a local election.

Outside chance of a Tory gain - Tilehurst. Currently 2 Lib Dems, 1 Conservative. Don't know anything about this ward other than the fact its mix of Lib Dems and Tories would suggest the Tories may have a chance at grabbing another Lib Dem seat.

Yes but remember the candidate in Redlands last year was the subject of a huge furore in the press about stealing money from a charity. The Greens will probably hold this because of London Road campus however. My mother might be the Thames Labour candidate, so I am personally involved here. We were less than hundred votes off at the general election and I think it depends on the candidate as the Heights Primary(free) School debacle will play a key role here, the Council is on the hit list of a lot of local residents for allowing then to build on a section of Mapledurham Playing Fields just outside the ward.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 19, 2020 13:42:33 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 19, 2020 13:17:58 GMT redvers said:

This has a poll but there's not a chance this will be anything other than a Labour hold. However, a drop in the Labour majority is likely.

Starting with east Reading, as I know that far better:

Likely Green gain - Redlands. Formely a Labour stronghold, the Greens managed to gain a foothold last year by winning with a 10% majority. Rightly or wrong, the council has a poor reputation in these parts, and whilst Green votes went tactical at the general election, I don't see a realistic path to Labour holding the ward locally this time round.

Outside chance of a Labour gain - Thames. Having turned the Caversham ward from a Labour-Tory marginal into a fairly strongish Labour ward, Labour may have a chance at converting the neighbouring ward of Thames. Thames is traditionally much more Conservative than Caversham, but the same demographic changes that helped Labour secure Caversham are also at play in Thames. The Tories only had an 8.8% majority last time, and word is Labour overperformed here at the general election. Still don't quite see it pulling off, but certainly still one to watch.

Outside chance of a Tory gain - Church. Church is the most Brexiter of the Labour wards in east Reading. Traditionally, this has been a Labour-Tory marginal, and word is Labour underperformed here at the general election. However, the last result was an over 23% majority, so pretty tough to ask!

All other wards in east Reading as before.

As for west Reading, which I know far less well:

Possible Tory gain - Kentwood. Kentwood most recently had a by-election the same day as the general, and the Tories won the day with 400 votes. The ward is currently 2 Tories and 1 Labour, and the lone Labour is up for re-election. If it was general election turnout, Labour would be dead, but should save the day at a local election.

Outside chance of a Tory gain - Tilehurst. Currently 2 Lib Dems, 1 Conservative. Don't know anything about this ward other than the fact its mix of Lib Dems and Tories would suggest the Tories may have a chance at grabbing another Lib Dem seat.

Yes but remember the candidate in Redlands last year was the subject of a huge furore in the press about stealing money from a charity. The Greens will probably hold this because of London Road campus however. My mother might be the Thames Labour candidate, so I am personally involved here. We were less than hundred votes off at the general election and I think it depends on the candidate as the Heights Primary(free) School debacle will play a key role here, the Council is on the hit list of a lot of local residents for allowing then to build on a section of Mapledurham Playing Fields just outside the ward.

I would say Kentwood is a lot more vulnerable than Church because there are a lot of University staff living in Church and a recent planning application on Northcourt Avenue was denied by the council to the great relief of a lot of locals,as Kentwood is a very white working class seat (unlike Church which is much more mixed) and we've lost there the past few years, badly. As for Tilehurst, the LD's will probably hold on because they gained last year with the exceedingly popular community campaign Ricky Duveen and this year,the Lib Dem councillor is up for re-election who is quite popular and has good name recognition as the perennial Lib Dem candidate in Reading West. It's also the part of Reading West where national politics will play a role- Brexit is not generally popular round there compared to the WWC estates nearby in Calcot, Norcot,Kentwood and Southcote.

[bjornhattan]

Feb 19, 2020 13:54:39 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 19, 2020 13:42:33 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Yes but remember the candidate in Redlands last year was the subject of a huge furore in the press about stealing money from a charity. The Greens will probably hold this because of London Road campus however. My mother might be the Thames Labour candidate, so I am personally involved here. We were less than hundred votes off at the general election and I think it depends on the candidate as the Heights Primary(free) School debacle will play a key role here, the Council is on the hit list of a lot of local residents for allowing then to build on a section of Mapledurham Playing Fields just outside the ward.

I would say Kentwood is a lot more vulnerable than Church because there are a lot of University staff living in Church and a recent planning application on Northcourt Avenue was denied by the council to the great relief of a lot of locals,as Kentwood is a very white working class seat (unlike Church which is much more mixed) and we've lost there the past few years, badly. As for Tilehurst, the LD's will probably hold on because they gained last year with the exceedingly popular community campaign Ricky Duveen and this year,the Lib Dem councillor is up for re-election who is quite popular and has good name recognition as the perennial Lib Dem candidate in Reading West. It's also the part of Reading West where national politics will play a role- Brexit is not generally popular round there compared to the WWC estates nearby in Calcot, Norcot,Kentwood and Southcote.

I've been to Church ward a couple of times, it's always struck me as your Blackbird Leys. I wouldn't say it was that much more mixed than elsewhere in Reading (it's very clearly less diverse than the town centre or some of the inner suburbs), and either way the WWC population there will be a huge proportion of the electorate.

I should mention my favourite Church ward fact - I believe it's the ward which produced Ricky Gervais.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 19, 2020 13:59:18 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 19, 2020 13:54:39 GMT unrepentantfool said:

I would say Kentwood is a lot more vulnerable than Church because there are a lot of University staff living in Church and a recent planning application on Northcourt Avenue was denied by the council to the great relief of a lot of locals,as Kentwood is a very white working class seat (unlike Church which is much more mixed) and we've lost there the past few years, badly. As for Tilehurst, the LD's will probably hold on because they gained last year with the exceedingly popular community campaign Ricky Duveen and this year,the Lib Dem councillor is up for re-election who is quite popular and has good name recognition as the perennial Lib Dem candidate in Reading West. It's also the part of Reading West where national politics will play a role- Brexit is not generally popular round there compared to the WWC estates nearby in Calcot, Norcot,Kentwood and Southcote.

I've been to Church ward a couple of times, it's always struck me as your Blackbird Leys. I wouldn't say it was that much more mixed than elsewhere in Reading (it's very clearly less diverse than the town centre or some of the inner suburbs), and either way the WWC population there will be a huge proportion of the electorate.

I should mention my favourite Church ward fact - I believe it's the ward which produced Ricky Gervais.

Possibly, but not all of its Whitley. But Norcot and Kentwood are much less diverse than Church,even Southcote to some extent.They are much more like Blackbird Leys, the Norcot estate in particular because the bulk of it is a huge council estate with good transport links.

[bjornhattan]

Feb 19, 2020 14:02:11 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 19, 2020 13:59:18 GMT bjornhattan said:

I've been to Church ward a couple of times, it's always struck me as your Blackbird Leys. I wouldn't say it was that much more mixed than elsewhere in Reading (it's very clearly less diverse than the town centre or some of the inner suburbs), and either way the WWC population there will be a huge proportion of the electorate.

I should mention my favourite Church ward fact - I believe it's the ward which produced Ricky Gervais.

Possibly, but not all of its Whitley. But Norcot and Kentwood are much less diverse than Church,even Southcote to some extent.They are much more like Blackbird Leys, the Norcot estate in particular because the bulk of it is a huge council estate with good transport links.

Of course I suspect a lot of Reading's WWC population live outside the urban area now. One of my best mates is from Bracknell, apparently that's mostly comprised of people who moved from Reading.

[arnieg]

Feb 19, 2020 14:02:11 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 19, 2020 13:59:18 GMT bjornhattan said:

I've been to Church ward a couple of times, it's always struck me as your Blackbird Leys. I wouldn't say it was that much more mixed than elsewhere in Reading (it's very clearly less diverse than the town centre or some of the inner suburbs), and either way the WWC population there will be a huge proportion of the electorate.

I should mention my favourite Church ward fact - I believe it's the ward which produced Ricky Gervais.

Possibly, but not all of its Whitley. But Norcot and Kentwood are much less diverse than Church,even Southcote to some extent.They are much more like Blackbird Leys, the Norcot estate in particular because the bulk of it is a huge council estate with good transport links.

Not sure if it was Church or Whitley (overlooking the fact he was born in Battle hospital)

But I was definitely born there.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 19, 2020 14:04:47 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 19, 2020 14:02:11 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Possibly, but not all of its Whitley. But Norcot and Kentwood are much less diverse than Church,even Southcote to some extent.They are much more like Blackbird Leys, the Norcot estate in particular because the bulk of it is a huge council estate with good transport links.

Of course I suspect a lot of Reading's WWC population live outside the urban area now. One of my best mates is from Bracknell, apparently that's mostly comprised of people who moved from Reading.

Not Reading, but West London mostly I think. Calcot is mostly white flight for Reading though.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 19, 2020 15:31:38 GMT arnieg said:

Feb 19, 2020 14:02:11 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Possibly, but not all of its Whitley. But Norcot and Kentwood are much less diverse than Church,even Southcote to some extent.They are much more like Blackbird Leys, the Norcot estate in particular because the bulk of it is a huge council estate with good transport links.

Not sure if it was Church or Whitley (overlooking the fact he was born in Battle hospital)

But I was definitely born there.

Which road? Cressingham Road and that side of Whitley up to north Shinfield Road shops are in Church. The other side of Basingstoke Rd is in Whitley. I was born in Royal Berks in Redlands I think and I have grown up in Caversham centre. Nice to see a fellow Redingensian on the forum.

[European Lefty]

Is a Conservative gain here even mathematically possible?

[bjornhattan]

Feb 19, 2020 23:32:12 GMT European Lefty said:

Is a Conservative gain here even mathematically possible?

No, the best possible result for the Conservatives here would be Con 23, with 13 gains. There would then be 23 opposition councillors so the end result would be NOC.

My delve into LEAP also made me realise that this year is the cycle when Mapledurham elects its sole councillor. Single member wards in councils which elect by thirds seem to be a bit of an endangered species - are there any others?

[European Lefty]

Feb 19, 2020 23:40:26 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 19, 2020 23:32:12 GMT European Lefty said:

Is a Conservative gain here even mathematically possible?

No, the best possible result for the Conservatives here would be Con 23, with 13 gains. There would then be 23 opposition councillors so the end result would be NOC.

My delve into LEAP also made me realise that this year is the cycle when Mapledurham elects its sole councillor. Single member wards in councils which elect by thirds seem to be a bit of an endangered species - are there any others?

A few rural ones that elect by thirds have 1, 2 and 3 member wards - Craven is the example that springs to mind, I think Tunbridge Wells might as well and I'm sure there are a few others. I think this situation - where it is the only single-member ward in a council that otherwise elects 1 councillor by ward in thirds - is unique.

[unrepentantfool]

Feb 19, 2020 23:40:26 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 19, 2020 23:32:12 GMT European Lefty said:

Is a Conservative gain here even mathematically possible?

No, the best possible result for the Conservatives here would be Con 23, with 13 gains. There would then be 23 opposition councillors so the end result would be NOC.

My delve into LEAP also made me realise that this year is the cycle when Mapledurham elects its sole councillor. Single member wards in councils which elect by thirds seem to be a bit of an endangered species - are there any others?

I just realised because I've been told that we're selecting for Mapledurham soon and our membership has rapidly grown in the area since the election, which is both shocking and interesting.

[bjornhattan]

Feb 19, 2020 23:47:55 GMT European Lefty said:

Feb 19, 2020 23:40:26 GMT bjornhattan said:

No, the best possible result for the Conservatives here would be Con 23, with 13 gains. There would then be 23 opposition councillors so the end result would be NOC.

My delve into LEAP also made me realise that this year is the cycle when Mapledurham elects its sole councillor. Single member wards in councils which elect by thirds seem to be a bit of an endangered species - are there any others?

A few rural ones that elect by thirds have 1, 2 and 3 member wards - Craven is the example that springs to mind, I think Tunbridge Wells might as well and I'm sure there are a few others. I think this situation - where it is the only single-member ward in a council that otherwise elects 1 councillor by ward in thirds - is unique.

No system will ever be quite as bizzare as the old Bristolian way - split the authority into three and have two thirds elect each year, and the other third lie fallow! Looking at the old results from the 2000s, Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems all won the popular vote, but only when their weakest areas (respectively North, Central, and South) weren't up for election.

[froome]

Feb 19, 2020 23:47:55 GMT European Lefty said:

Feb 19, 2020 23:40:26 GMT bjornhattan said:

No, the best possible result for the Conservatives here would be Con 23, with 13 gains. There would then be 23 opposition councillors so the end result would be NOC.

My delve into LEAP also made me realise that this year is the cycle when Mapledurham elects its sole councillor. Single member wards in councils which elect by thirds seem to be a bit of an endangered species - are there any others?

A few rural ones that elect by thirds have 1, 2 and 3 member wards - Craven is the example that springs to mind, I think Tunbridge Wells might as well and I'm sure there are a few others. I think this situation - where it is the only single-member ward in a council that otherwise elects 1 councillor by ward in thirds - is unique.

Doesn't the London Borough of Bromley have a single member ward in Downe? I'm fairly sure it used to.

[johnloony]

Feb 20, 2020 4:57:54 GMT froome said:

Feb 19, 2020 23:47:55 GMT European Lefty said:

A few rural ones that elect by thirds have 1, 2 and 3 member wards - Craven is the example that springs to mind, I think Tunbridge Wells might as well and I'm sure there are a few others. I think this situation - where it is the only single-member ward in a council that otherwise elects 1 councillor by ward in thirds - is unique.

Doesn't the London Borough of Bromley have a single member ward in Downe? I'm fairly sure it used to.

There are 4 single-member wards in the London Boroughs, but they are not elected by thirds anyway.

[arnieg]

Feb 19, 2020 22:57:46 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Feb 19, 2020 15:31:38 GMT arnieg said:

Not sure if it was Church or Whitley (overlooking the fact he was born in Battle hospital)

But I was definitely born there.

Which road? Cressingham Road and that side of Whitley up to north Shinfield Road shops are in Church. The other side of Basingstoke Rd is in Whitley. I was born in Royal Berks in Redlands I think and I have grown up in Caversham centre. Nice to see a fellow Redingensian on the forum.

Barnsdale which is off Cressingham (and it was a home birth)

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 19, 2020 13:59:18 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 19, 2020 13:54:39 GMT unrepentantfool said:

I would say Kentwood is a lot more vulnerable than Church because there are a lot of University staff living in Church and a recent planning application on Northcourt Avenue was denied by the council to the great relief of a lot of locals,as Kentwood is a very white working class seat (unlike Church which is much more mixed) and we've lost there the past few years, badly. As for Tilehurst, the LD's will probably hold on because they gained last year with the exceedingly popular community campaign Ricky Duveen and this year,the Lib Dem councillor is up for re-election who is quite popular and has good name recognition as the perennial Lib Dem candidate in Reading West. It's also the part of Reading West where national politics will play a role- Brexit is not generally popular round there compared to the WWC estates nearby in Calcot, Norcot,Kentwood and Southcote.

I've been to Church ward a couple of times, it's always struck me as your Blackbird Leys. I wouldn't say it was that much more mixed than elsewhere in Reading (it's very clearly less diverse than the town centre or some of the inner suburbs), and either way the WWC population there will be a huge proportion of the electorate.

I should mention my favourite Church ward fact - I believe it's the ward which produced Ricky Gervais.

When I was a student at Reading, I lived for two years sharing a house in the Cemetery Junction area.
This was 1980-82, a few years after the film Cemetery Junction was set.
I was disappointed that Gervais didn't actually use Cemetery Junction as the location for his film - I was hoping to recognise places.

The Labour candidate for Park ward (where we lived) for the County elections in 1981 caused a bit of a stir when canvassing.
He had a beard, and his name was Sutcliffe.

[clyde1998]

Just a memo:

---

Seats contested (based on councillor up for election):
Lab held: Abbey, Battle, Caversham, Church, Katesgrove, Kentwood, Minster, Norcot, Redlands, Southcote, Whitley
Con held: Mapledurham, Peppard, Thames
Grn held: Park
LDm held: Tilehurst

Kentwood was won by the Conservatives in 2019; Redlands was won by the Greens. All other seats won by shown party in 2019 (Mapledurham not contested).

---

Taking a weighted average of each parties' vote share across the past three elections (2019, 2018, 2016 - 4:3:1), the closest contests are Kentwood (Lab-Con), Redlands (Lab-Grn) and Tilehurst (Lib-Con).

Thames could be interesting, as the Conservatives lost 12% between 2016 and 2019, and the Lib Dems and Greens have gained around 5% each in the same time. The Greens in 4th were 'only' 19% behind the Conservatives in 1st last year, closer than nine majorities (of fifteen).