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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Jan 1, 2020 21:24:43 GMT
Lab majority of 1
Elects by thirds
Current composition: Lab 29, Con 25, Oth 3
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 3, 2020 13:53:24 GMT
Current council is Lab 29, Con 25, Ind 3. The 3 Independents are all ex Labour who have left the party for various reasons.
As was reflected in the General election, Plymouth has 2 halves swinging in opposite directions. Some traditional Labour wards in Moor View constituency are now being won the Conservatives, whilst some traditional Conservative wards in Sutton and Devenport are winnable for Labour now.
None of the Independents are up this year, so defences this year are Labour 11, Conservative 8. Labour need to avoid losses to retain control, the Conservatives need 4 gains for control.
Of the 19 wards
Safe Labour (7) Devenport, Efford and Lipson, Ham, Honicknowle, St Peter, Stoke and Sutton ( Ham and Honicknowle are Council estates which must have been close in December, but the Conservatives haven’t got near winning them at a council election)
Safe Conservative (6) Eggbuckland + all 5 wards in Plympton and Plymstock
The Conservatives 2 shaky defences are Peverell, which Labour have gained in 2018 and 2019, and Compton, which used to be safe Tory but Labour got within 120 last year
Labour’s 4 shaky defences are Budshead, where a popular Labour councillor held in 2016, but the Conservatives have held in 2018 and 2019
Moor View, which the Conservatives also won in 2018 and 2019, but was close last year
Southway, which the Conservatives held last year, but Labour won in 2016 & 2018
St Budeaux, where the Conservatives have come close in the last 2 years
Assuming Labour gain Peverell, which I think they will, then NOC looks very likely this year. Everything would have to go right for them for the Conservatives to gain overall control
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neilm
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Feb 3, 2020 19:48:05 GMT
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Post by neilm on Feb 3, 2020 19:48:05 GMT
Compton was the ward to return 3/3 in 1995. It's been solidly Tory since forever although it's populated by lots of academics and university types who lean remain.
Stoke may be one to watch: I'd not rule out a Tory gain here.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 3, 2020 22:04:37 GMT
Compton was the ward to return 3/3 in 1995. It's been solidly Tory since forever although it's populated by lots of academics and university types who lean remain. Stoke may be one to watch: I'd not rule out a Tory gain here. Interesting. Compton looks like it will be gained by Labour for the first time ever sooner or later |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 3, 2020 23:11:18 GMT
Compton was the ward to return 3/3 in 1995. It's been solidly Tory since forever although it's populated by lots of academics and university types who lean remain. Stoke may be one to watch: I'd not rule out a Tory gain here. Interesting. Compton looks like it will be gained by Labour for the first time ever sooner or later Twenty years ago no one would ever have considered it: in 1995, the Conservatives were 5/60 on the old city council (the three in Compton, Dennis Dicker in Dunstone and someone who's name I can't remember in one of the Plympton wards). 1996 was the beginning of the turnaround: Ken Foster won the Radford county council seat in a by election that November and then the 1997 elections to the shadow unitary had a series of very close results; these were the basis of the 2001 elections where the Conservatives took back control after making the fate of the Waterfront, and specifically Tinside Pool, a live issue. Tudor Evans took over as Labour and council leader in 1998 and has held on ever since: he must be one of the longest serving group leaders in the country. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 4, 2020 8:13:26 GMT
Interesting. Compton looks like it will be gained by Labour for the first time ever sooner or later Twenty years ago no one would ever have considered it: in 1995, the Conservatives were 5/60 on the old city council (the three in Compton, Dennis Dicker in Dunstone and someone who's name I can't remember in one of the Plympton wards). 1996 was the beginning of the turnaround: Ken Foster won the Radford county council seat in a by election that November and then the 1997 elections to the shadow unitary had a series of very close results; these were the basis of the 2001 elections where the Conservatives took back control after making the fate of the Waterfront, and specifically Tinside Pool, a live issue. Tudor Evans took over as Labour and council leader in 1998 and has held on ever since: he must be one of the longest serving group leaders in the country. Compton is the sort of middle class city area that has swung to Labour in the last 2 decades. If there were a 1995 type Labour landslide now, Compton would definitely be Labour, but Plymstock and Plympton would most probably stay Conservative now, unlike 1995. |
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Post by casualobserver on Feb 19, 2020 6:49:59 GMT
With two months to go to the PVs, and a national opinion poll lead we could only have fantasised about in May 2019, I've got real hopes that the Conservatives will indeed take back overall control this May.
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neilm
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Feb 19, 2020 12:29:54 GMT
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Post by neilm on Feb 19, 2020 12:29:54 GMT
Twenty years ago no one would ever have considered it: in 1995, the Conservatives were 5/60 on the old city council (the three in Compton, Dennis Dicker in Dunstone and someone who's name I can't remember in one of the Plympton wards). 1996 was the beginning of the turnaround: Ken Foster won the Radford county council seat in a by election that November and then the 1997 elections to the shadow unitary had a series of very close results; these were the basis of the 2001 elections where the Conservatives took back control after making the fate of the Waterfront, and specifically Tinside Pool, a live issue. Tudor Evans took over as Labour and council leader in 1998 and has held on ever since: he must be one of the longest serving group leaders in the country. Compton is the sort of middle class city area that has swung to Labour in the last 2 decades. If there were a 1995 type Labour landslide now, Compton would definitely be Labour, but Plymstock and Plympton would most probably stay Conservative now, unlike 1995. Agreed, I think it's only the 'enmeshment' in the community of the Compton councillors that has kept it blue. Once of them retires etc it'll be open season. With two months to go to the PVs, and a national opinion poll lead we could only have fantasised about in May 2019, I've got real hopes that the Conservatives will indeed take back overall control this May. We may end up with a 'wrong winner' situation due to the Tory vote piling up east of the Plym, Moor View etc. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 12, 2020 9:26:29 GMT
The Conservative group has a new leader, Nick Kelly (Compton). He's been on the council since 2015 and served as deputy Lord Mayor a couple of years ago.
Apparently, members wanted a 'more dynamic' leader. Read into that what you will; former Lord Mayor, council leader (and current deputy group leader) Patrick Nicholson was apparently very keen on a change. Maybe he has his eyes on the top job after May.
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neilm
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Oct 9, 2020 19:35:32 GMT
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Post by neilm on Oct 9, 2020 19:35:32 GMT
Ian Bowyer (Eggbuckland) and Tony Carson (Peverell) suspended from the Conservative group. Apparently something to do with undermining the party position on speed limits, but this may not be the full story. Lynda Bowyer remains in the group.
Carson is up next year (was meant to be this year) and isn't safe. If the election had gone ahead as planned he'd have survived but I don't think he's got much hope now.
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finsobruce
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 9, 2020 20:13:37 GMT
Ian Bowyer (Eggbuckland) and Tony Carson (Peverell) suspended from the Conservative group. Apparently something to do with undermining the party position on speed limits, but this may not be the full story. Lynda Bowyer remains in the group. Carson is up next year (was meant to be this year) and isn't safe. If the election had gone ahead as planned he'd have survived but I don't think he's got much hope now. What did they do? Drive slightly faster in built up areas? |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 10, 2020 7:28:17 GMT
Ian Bowyer (Eggbuckland) and Tony Carson (Peverell) suspended from the Conservative group. Apparently something to do with undermining the party position on speed limits, but this may not be the full story. Lynda Bowyer remains in the group. Carson is up next year (was meant to be this year) and isn't safe. If the election had gone ahead as planned he'd have survived but I don't think he's got much hope now. What did they do? Drive slightly faster in built up areas? In 'our party' (one uses that phrase so loosely these days!) "...undermining the party position.." on anything is seen to be a most heinous crime, for we have so few positions on anything that is not Covid-related, economic suicide related, or Brexit-evasive; that we tend to cherish them rather as if handed down on the sacred word of Woden himself. For all one knows that may be the very source of them? They tend to be odd and out of time and the sort of matters that might excite a Woden. When living in Central Italy (small town in southern Toscana) one noticed how very seriously attitudes to roads were taken. One could tell when there was a change of local party in power, by two matters. The left installed speed humps all over the place and the right always removed all of them again. It was a small but important plank to the local economy. And the very complex one-way system on the roads was simplified and relaxed by the right and tightened and made the more complex by the left. When told that the English for speed humps was 'sleeping policemen' the Italians fell about in laughter. It really struck a chord in their humour. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 10, 2020 17:34:11 GMT
Ian Bowyer (Eggbuckland) and Tony Carson (Peverell) suspended from the Conservative group. Apparently something to do with undermining the party position on speed limits, but this may not be the full story. Lynda Bowyer remains in the group. Carson is up next year (was meant to be this year) and isn't safe. If the election had gone ahead as planned he'd have survived but I don't think he's got much hope now. What did they do? Drive slightly faster in built up areas? That sounds a bit 'Alan Partridge'. His, would be, Norfolk detective creation, Swallow, would often drive at 35mph in a built-up area to get to a crime scene quicker. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 11, 2020 11:19:25 GMT
What did they do? Drive slightly faster in built up areas? That sounds a bit 'Alan Partridge'. His, would be, Norfolk detective creation, Swallow, would often drive at 35mph in a built-up area to get to a crime scene quicker. In my family 'Suffolk driving' refers to people who drive at just a tad under 40mph, except when entering a village when they speed up slightly. |
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Post by ricmk on Oct 12, 2020 12:39:36 GMT
Ian Bowyer (Eggbuckland) and Tony Carson (Peverell) suspended from the Conservative group. Apparently something to do with undermining the party position on speed limits, but this may not be the full story. Lynda Bowyer remains in the group. Carson is up next year (was meant to be this year) and isn't safe. If the election had gone ahead as planned he'd have survived but I don't think he's got much hope now. 2 more Tories have left their group, as per the defections thread. Labour must fancy their chances of big gains surely? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 12, 2020 12:55:18 GMT
Ian Bowyer (Eggbuckland) and Tony Carson (Peverell) suspended from the Conservative group. Apparently something to do with undermining the party position on speed limits, but this may not be the full story. Lynda Bowyer remains in the group. Carson is up next year (was meant to be this year) and isn't safe. If the election had gone ahead as planned he'd have survived but I don't think he's got much hope now. 2 more Tories have left their group, as per the defections thread. Labour must fancy their chances of big gains surely? ‘Big’ Labour gains are almost impossible. The Conservatives are only defending 3 seats excluding those in Plympton and Plymstock. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 12, 2020 13:06:45 GMT
Lynda Bowyer is Ian's wife and Heath Cook is the other Eggbuckland councillor.
Big gains aren't likely, unless the seats east of the Plym fall in a 1995 style landslide, but this does cause serious issues for the new Tory leader, who ousted Ian Bowyer earlier this year. Patrick Nicholson seems to be pretty quiet in all this, maybe something of an eminence grise.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 16, 2020 22:06:03 GMT
Lynda Bowyer is Ian's wife and Heath Cook is the other Eggbuckland councillor. Didn't Ian Bowyer play for Manchester City and Nottingham Forest? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Bowyer |
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finsobruce
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 17, 2020 14:50:03 GMT
Lynda Bowyer is Ian's wife and Heath Cook is the other Eggbuckland councillor. Didn't Ian Bowyer play for Manchester City and Nottingham Forest? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Bowyerwith two seasons at Leyton Orient in between. Or rather, just Orient in those days. |
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Post by andykernow on Jan 2, 2021 9:47:59 GMT
Current council is Lab 29, Con 25, Ind 3. The 3 Independents are all ex Labour who have left the party for various reasons. As was reflected in the General election, Plymouth has 2 halves swinging in opposite directions. Some traditional Labour wards in Moor View constituency are now being won the Conservatives, whilst some traditional Conservative wards in Sutton and Devenport are winnable for Labour now. None of the Independents are up this year, so defences this year are Labour 11, Conservative 8. Labour need to avoid losses to retain control, the Conservatives need 4 gains for control. Of the 19 wards Safe Labour (7) Devenport, Efford and Lipson, Ham, Honicknowle, St Peter, Stoke and Sutton ( Ham and Honicknowle are Council estates which must have been close in December, but the Conservatives haven’t got near winning them at a council election) Safe Conservative (6) Eggbuckland + all 5 wards in Plympton and Plymstock The Conservatives 2 shaky defences are Peverell, which Labour have gained in 2018 and 2019, and Compton, which used to be safe Tory but Labour got within 120 last year Labour’s 4 shaky defences are Budshead, where a popular Labour councillor held in 2016, but the Conservatives have held in 2018 and 2019 Moor View, which the Conservatives also won in 2018 and 2019, but was close last year Southway, which the Conservatives held last year, but Labour won in 2016 & 2018 St Budeaux, where the Conservatives have come close in the last 2 years Assuming Labour gain Peverell, which I think they will, then NOC looks very likely this year. Everything would have to go right for them for the Conservatives to gain overall control Plymouth was interesting in the fact that it voted 60/40 for leave in spite of a good deal of EU investment over the past decade This was for a number of reason, one of which was fishing. It will be interesting to see if the concern the fishing community have for the Brexit deal may reveal itself in the voting. The current make up of the Council according to the Plymouth.gov website is different to the tag above and shows Labour 30, Conservative 17 and 10 Independent. The 10 Indies are made up of two ex Labour (internal party issues) and eight Conservatives. The latter's resignation from the Tories was down to a campaign to reduce the speed limit along the A38 which effectively cuts the city in two. Eggbuckland borders the road to the east and all three members are now Independent along with two in nearby Compton. There are quite a few districts suffering badly from poverty and have done so for many years. Swilly (renamed North Prospect by the Council some time ago in an attempt to turn the tide of problems within the estate) is an example of changes taking place with new housing replacing the old sprawling estates. The Conservatives are looking to make gains in St Budeaux and possibly Southway but on the other hand Peverell could very well go Labour. Compton should remain blue but it will depend on the candidate and whether the current Independents put someone forward. For Labour Ham, Honicknowle and Moor View returned UKIP councillors back in 2014 although in the following 'third' election the first two retained their Labour Cllrs while Moor View saw the Conservative gain which was part of the reason Labour lost overall control. Could be a tight race across the city. |
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