Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 31, 2020 21:26:26 GMT
Labour are probably at the height of their powers here, which makes me suspect they will now lose seats.
The most likely difficult defences are Culcheth, Glazebury & Croft ward, and Penketh & Cuerdley, both facing the Tories. The Tories need to make their victory in South count for something, as they are at an exceptionally low ebb themselves.
"People may say what they like about the decay of Christianity; the religious system that produced green Chartreuse can never really die."
This is the place where FPTP actually hurts the conservatives the most at local level. Frequently getting fairly respectable vote shares with little to show for it.
The lib demn held wards of Appleton, Grappenhall and Lymm North & Thelwall are pretty safe for them locally. Stockton Heath is less safe but the lib dems should still hold this.
The by-election gain in Lymm South could potentially be reversed so the tories have 2 councillors in this ward but again nothing is certain and without Sheila Woodyatt around the lib dems could actually end up with both councillors in the ward as well. That's the only real tory/lib dem battleground.
From labour I agree with Devil Wincarnate about the two potential battlegrounds, but Penketh & Cuerdley was probably very close at the General Election between conservative and labour, and could quite easily see labour holding on.
The Culcheth, Glazebury & Croft ward certainly had the conservative ahead at the General Election, however due to the demographics of the ward the swing from labour to conservative was probably the lowest here out of all the wards, and labour have a knack of getting their vote out here outside of a General Election so would not be surprised to see 3 labour holds.
Am honestly inclined to go for a surprise conservative gain in another ward not previously thought of as a target. It was clear from the General Election that there were some wards that had huge swings and though local elections are different, perhaps Rixton & Woolston or Birchwood could have a surprise result.
A conservative who has always lived in labour areas.