Bristol

[Admin Twaddleford]

Lab majority
Whole council election
Current composition: Lab 35, Con 14, Grn 11, LD 9, 1 vacant at time of posting

[nn2019]

Lab Hold

I can see a few areas that are mixed (Horfield for example) gaining some Labour councillors and possibly a couple of LD gains in Westbury-on-Trym.

[bjornhattan]

Jan 11, 2020 19:47:18 GMT nn2019 said:

Lab Hold

I can see a few areas that are mixed (Horfield for example) gaining some Labour councillors and possibly a couple of LD gains in Westbury-on-Trym.

Could there be any prospect of Conservative gains, for example in the two Labour seats in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston?

[nn2019]

Jan 11, 2020 19:54:10 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jan 11, 2020 19:47:18 GMT nn2019 said:

Lab Hold

I can see a few areas that are mixed (Horfield for example) gaining some Labour councillors and possibly a couple of LD gains in Westbury-on-Trym.

Could there be any prospect of Conservative gains, for example in the two Labour seats in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston?

I wouldn't rule it out to be honest with you as some areas are "knife-edge" 

[andrewp]

Jan 11, 2020 19:54:10 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jan 11, 2020 19:47:18 GMT nn2019 said:

Lab Hold

I can see a few areas that are mixed (Horfield for example) gaining some Labour councillors and possibly a couple of LD gains in Westbury-on-Trym.

Could there be any prospect of Conservative gains, for example in the two Labour seats in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston?

The Conservative councillor in that ward has a big personal vote so winning the other 2 seats might be harder than it looks. I would have thought there will be Labour net gains in Bristol. 

[bjornhattan]

Jan 11, 2020 19:55:04 GMT nn2019 said:

Jan 11, 2020 19:54:10 GMT bjornhattan said:

Could there be any prospect of Conservative gains, for example in the two Labour seats in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston?

I wouldn't rule it out to be honest with you as some areas are "knife-edge" 

One area which I'll be watching is Hartcliffe and Withywood. It'll almost certainly be three Labour holds, but it had an extremely high Leave vote of 67%, which would have been one of the highest in the entire South West. It's the sort of place where you'd expect a big swing, if the sort of trends we saw at the general election weren't a fluke and are beginning to apply to all elections.

Overall, I actually think Bristol will be one of the most unpredictable councils, because so much has changed since 2016 and Bristol's wards are a real microcosm of the entire country.

[nn2019]

Jan 11, 2020 20:01:31 GMT andrewp said:

Jan 11, 2020 19:54:10 GMT bjornhattan said:

Could there be any prospect of Conservative gains, for example in the two Labour seats in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston?

The Conservative councillor in that ward has a big personal vote so winning the other 2 seats might be harder than it looks. I would have thought there will be Labour net gains in Bristol. 

Areas I can see Labour gains are:

Horfield (remember the Tories took the other seat by ONE VOTE from Labour, and she's not well liked in those parts)
Bishopsworth (Potentially one there)
Brislington East 
Brislington West
Clifton Down
Cotham
Frome Vale 

An outside chance of a gain in Henbury and Brentry I feel too.

I can see a potential Tory gain in:

Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston
Clifton (The one Green won by 100 odd votes)
Them potentially having Frome Vale to themselves as it's very marginal re: Con v Lab

[greenhert]

Clifton ward has two Green councillors, not one. Given Clifton's nature a Conservative gain is very unlikely indeed.

Overall I predict Labour will lose Bristol to NOC. Marvin Rees is not well-respected amongst Bristol's progressive population and his administration is becoming lacklustre on important issues.

[European Lefty]

I think Labour are at risk of getting a battering off both the Greens and LibDems. Loss to NOC.

[liverpoolliberal]

Jan 15, 2020 17:49:10 GMT European Lefty said:

I think Labour are at risk of getting a battering off both the Greens and LibDems. Loss to NOC.

The Bristol Lib Dems are, to put it generously, a hot mess at the moment. The upcoming by-election will be interesting see if our campaigning ability still has any value

[nn2019]

I live in neighbouring North Somerset, and I have my Mum and brother who does live in Bristol. I am not ruling us getting a battering from all sides. I can even see us losing that by-election tomorrow.

There's a fair bit of bad blood in regards to how complacent this administration has been.

[Tony Otim]

Jan 15, 2020 19:33:01 GMT liverpoolliberal said:

Jan 15, 2020 17:49:10 GMT European Lefty said:

I think Labour are at risk of getting a battering off both the Greens and LibDems. Loss to NOC.

The Bristol Lib Dems are, to put it generously, a hot mess at the moment. The upcoming by-election will be interesting see if our campaigning ability still has any value

Any comments, mboy...

[mboy]

Jan 15, 2020 21:46:03 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jan 15, 2020 19:33:01 GMT liverpoolliberal said:

The Bristol Lib Dems are, to put it generously, a hot mess at the moment. The upcoming by-election will be interesting see if our campaigning ability still has any value

Any comments, mboy ...

It’s news to me! What’s this based on liverpoolliberal ?

I agree with the other above assessments that this is a tough call because there are 4 strong party machines in action, and multiple combinations of fronts between them. Remember that in 2016 Labour did unexpectedly well here, when it turned out that Bristol was a Corbyn fan-zone (which people didn’t realise before). So the council going to NOC is likely I’d say, now the bubble has burst. Overall I don’t expect a huge amount of change, with gains and losses from all to all other theoretically possible; but I think Labour down, Tories level, Green and LD up a bit most likely.

Another big issue here is split-ticket voting. 2016 was the first all-outs, and the voters used their multiple votes to wide effect (though the alphabet effect was very strong too - often worth 200-300 votes (5%?) for the higher candidates). As a result there are a lot of split wards. I wonder if this will decrease to be more in line with other cities this year.

People are right to say the current mayor is unpopular, particularly in the suburbs, where I’d expect turnout to drop as a result. There was a big “Get the anti-car mayor out” in the suburbs last time, which worked; no such motivation this time. The Lib Dems have been pushing their simple message that their candidate will abolish herself and go back to the Council Leader model. It’s proved so popular that the Tories have been forced join in, and the Greens are split (as their national policy is to abolish, but their mayoral candidate wants to be the big cheese). The Labour mayor is likely to be saved by a very split opposition though, unless either the Green or LD snowball somehow and then win on 2nd prefs from anti-Labour voters. A Tory win is impossible there.

[Bert]

A hot potato, that Marvin is sitting on, is his support for the Bristol airport expansion. Which is DEEPLY unpopular in neighbouring authorities & hardly fits in with his 'Oooh look how green we are' messaging in Bristol itself. He would like to sit on that particular problem until the 2nd week in May, but unfortunately the planning inspectors have thrown out the Joint Spacial Plan, so all 4 CUBA councils are having to start that whole discussion up again, which includes transport links. About now. Not May !!

[froome]

Jan 15, 2020 22:43:04 GMT mboy said:

Jan 15, 2020 21:46:03 GMT Tony Otim said:

Any comments, mboy ...

It’s news to me! What’s this based on liverpoolliberal ?


Another big issue here is split-ticket voting. 2016 was the first all-outs, and the voters used their multiple votes to wide effect (though the alphabet effect was very strong too - often worth 200-300 votes (5%?) for the higher candidates). As a result there are a lot of split wards. I wonder if this will decrease to be more in line with other cities this year.

Split-ticket voting is prevalent here in Bath, and as voters realise how much power it does give them over the party machines, I would expect it to become more prevalent in Bristol rather than less.

[liverpoolliberal]

Jan 15, 2020 22:43:04 GMT mboy said:

Jan 15, 2020 21:46:03 GMT Tony Otim said:

Any comments, mboy ...

It’s news to me! What’s this based on liverpoolliberal ?

I agree with the other above assessments that this is a tough call because there are 4 strong party machines in action, and multiple combinations of fronts between them. Remember that in 2016 Labour did unexpectedly well here, when it turned out that Bristol was a Corbyn fan-zone (which people didn’t realise before). So the council going to NOC is likely I’d say, now the bubble has burst. Overall I don’t expect a huge amount of change, with gains and losses from all to all other theoretically possible; but I think Labour down, Tories level, Green and LD up a bit most likely.

Another big issue here is split-ticket voting. 2016 was the first all-outs, and the voters used their multiple votes to wide effect (though the alphabet effect was very strong too - often worth 200-300 votes (5%?) for the higher candidates). As a result there are a lot of split wards. I wonder if this will decrease to be more in line with other cities this year.

People are right to say the current mayor is unpopular, particularly in the suburbs, where I’d expect turnout to drop as a result. There was a big “Get the anti-car mayor out” in the suburbs last time, which worked; no such motivation this time. The Lib Dems have been pushing their simple message that their candidate will abolish herself and go back to the Council Leader model. It’s proved so popular that the Tories have been forced join in, and the Greens are split (as their national policy is to abolish, but their mayoral candidate wants to be the big cheese). The Labour mayor is likely to be saved by a very split opposition though, unless either the Green or LD snowball somehow and then win on 2nd prefs from anti-Labour voters. A Tory win is impossible there.

Basically I'd heard that the decision to stand down in West and target North West instead, which in fairness was utterly baffling, had completely screwed you lot over.  

[mboy]

Ah I see. Obviously not being able to campaign in Bristol West hurt the Lib Dems there over the last couple of months, but the fairly poor Green Party result in December (given the perfect situation) and the fact that the LDs are now back in 3rd in all the other city seats means that the damage is not nearly as bad as it might have been. If the Greens had won Bristol West they would likely be lined up to win the mayoralty, but they lost by nearly 30,000 votes...

[pepperminttea]

Jan 16, 2020 9:58:04 GMT liverpoolliberal said:

Jan 15, 2020 22:43:04 GMT mboy said:

It’s news to me! What’s this based on liverpoolliberal ?

I agree with the other above assessments that this is a tough call because there are 4 strong party machines in action, and multiple combinations of fronts between them. Remember that in 2016 Labour did unexpectedly well here, when it turned out that Bristol was a Corbyn fan-zone (which people didn’t realise before). So the council going to NOC is likely I’d say, now the bubble has burst. Overall I don’t expect a huge amount of change, with gains and losses from all to all other theoretically possible; but I think Labour down, Tories level, Green and LD up a bit most likely.

Another big issue here is split-ticket voting. 2016 was the first all-outs, and the voters used their multiple votes to wide effect (though the alphabet effect was very strong too - often worth 200-300 votes (5%?) for the higher candidates). As a result there are a lot of split wards. I wonder if this will decrease to be more in line with other cities this year.

People are right to say the current mayor is unpopular, particularly in the suburbs, where I’d expect turnout to drop as a result. There was a big “Get the anti-car mayor out” in the suburbs last time, which worked; no such motivation this time. The Lib Dems have been pushing their simple message that their candidate will abolish herself and go back to the Council Leader model. It’s proved so popular that the Tories have been forced join in, and the Greens are split (as their national policy is to abolish, but their mayoral candidate wants to be the big cheese). The Labour mayor is likely to be saved by a very split opposition though, unless either the Green or LD snowball somehow and then win on 2nd prefs from anti-Labour voters. A Tory win is impossible there.

Basically I'd heard that the decision to stand down in West and target North West instead, which in fairness was utterly baffling, had completely screwed you lot over.  

I don't agree at all. The Lib Dems would've done significantly worse than the Greens in Bristol West had they stood instead of them. I mean they'd have got a bit more of the Tory vote but a huge chunk (very likely the majority) of people that backed the Greens would've gone Labour instead of Lib Dem.

Bristol West is probably the most left-wing, most woke, most pro-censorship of 'offensive' things constituency in the whole country (believe me I've lived there, I know these people) and thus not the kind of place any liberal party should be doing at all well unless they've abandoned liberalism as an ideology completely. Bristol North West by contrast does contain areas that could've been open to a liberal message particularly Henleaze, Westbury Village, Stoke Bishop as well as Horfield to a lesser extent. Thus if the Lib Dems had a good campaign they could indeed have done very well in these areas. In the context of this election it was probably near impossible for the Lib Dems to actually win Bristol North West due to the presence of working class Leave areas like Avonmouth, Lawrence Weston, Henbury, Brentry and Southmead but with a very good national campaign the party may well have just been able to squeeze into second. 

Targeting North West instead of West made total sense it's just the national campaign was so bad that the Lib Dem vote couldn't withstand the squeeze put on it by both Labour and the Tories. 

[bjornhattan]

Jan 18, 2020 14:25:18 GMT pepperminttea said:

Jan 16, 2020 9:58:04 GMT liverpoolliberal said:

Basically I'd heard that the decision to stand down in West and target North West instead, which in fairness was utterly baffling, had completely screwed you lot over.  

I don't agree at all. The Lib Dems would've done significantly worse than the Greens in Bristol West had they stood instead of them. I mean they'd have got a bit more of the Tory vote but a huge chunk (very likely the majority) of people that backed the Greens would've gone Labour instead of Lib Dem.

Bristol West is probably the most left-wing, most woke, most pro-censorship of 'offensive' things constituency in the whole country (believe me I've lived there, I know these people) and thus not the kind of place any liberal party should be doing at all well unless they've abandoned liberalism as an ideology completely. Bristol North West by contrast does contain areas that could've been open to a liberal message particularly Henleaze, Westbury Village, Stoke Bishop as well as Horfield to a lesser extent. Thus if the Lib Dems had a good campaign they could indeed have done very well in these areas. In the context of this election it was probably near impossible for the Lib Dems to actually win Bristol North West due to the presence of working class Leave areas like Avonmouth, Lawrence Weston, Henbury, Brentry and Southmead but with a very good national campaign the party may well have just been able to squeeze into second. 

Targeting North West instead of West made total sense it's just the national campaign was so bad that the Lib Dem vote couldn't withstand the squeeze put on it by both Labour and the Tories. 

Though honestly, given the South West's general centre-right liberal lean, Bristol shouldn't have even been on the radar. The Lib Dems should have been focusing on the many small town seats which fit a Swinsonite party to the tee - Chippenham, Thornbury and Yate, Wells, Taunton. They weren't even massively pro-leave so EU extremism wouldn't really do too much damage there.

[conservativeestimate]

Bath and Cheltenham are the only seats the Lib Dems can currently win in the South West.