Buckinghamshire

[heslingtonian]

Sept 8, 2020 20:53:17 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Sept 8, 2020 20:15:41 GMT southpaw1 said:

Labour should make big gains in Wycombe I'd imagine - their vote held up well in 2019 against the trend - perhaps an Asian candidate helped or maybe demographic change...

Well, a lot of my friends were first time voters from Wycombe in 2019 & they were very supportive of Labour or the Greens generally (anecdotal I know),despite not being particularly involved in politics.
So, I would say it's a more of a national factor where youth turnout shot up (from what it was) and this particularly impacted Wycombe in 2019,because of the 2017 general election result,making Wycombe competive at the Parliamentary level for the first time in about a decade really.

It's partly also the Asian vote yes,but that won't be such a large factor at Parliamentary level because the seat also contains towns like Hazlemere and Marlow,which are much more white middle class and will dilute that effect somewhat. 

The East Wycombe Independents also used to take a lot of the Labour vote, but I don't think they'll be able to do that at the unitary level.

I think Marlow is now in Beaconsfield not Wycombe.

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 8, 2020 22:04:03 GMT heslingtonian said:

Sept 8, 2020 20:53:17 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Well, a lot of my friends were first time voters from Wycombe in 2019 & they were very supportive of Labour or the Greens generally (anecdotal I know),despite not being particularly involved in politics.
So, I would say it's a more of a national factor where youth turnout shot up (from what it was) and this particularly impacted Wycombe in 2019,because of the 2017 general election result,making Wycombe competive at the Parliamentary level for the first time in about a decade really.

It's partly also the Asian vote yes,but that won't be such a large factor at Parliamentary level because the seat also contains towns like Hazlemere and Marlow,which are much more white middle class and will dilute that effect somewhat. 

The East Wycombe Independents also used to take a lot of the Labour vote, but I don't think they'll be able to do that at the unitary level.

I think Marlow is now in Beaconsfield not Wycombe.

The core of the town itself was moved to Beacon,yes,but Greater Marlow ward is in Wycombe,which contains the Marlow Bottom and Little Marlow suburbs of Marlow,incidentally the parts of Marlow with the most new build suburban areas and,therefore,most likely to fit this demographic factor.

[southpaw1]

Sept 8, 2020 20:53:17 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Sept 8, 2020 20:15:41 GMT southpaw1 said:

Labour should make big gains in Wycombe I'd imagine - their vote held up well in 2019 against the trend - perhaps an Asian candidate helped or maybe demographic change...

Well, a lot of my friends were first time voters from Wycombe in 2019 & they were very supportive of Labour or the Greens generally (anecdotal I know),despite not being particularly involved in politics.
So, I would say it's a more of a national factor where youth turnout shot up (from what it was) and this particularly impacted Wycombe in 2019,because of the 2017 general election result,making Wycombe competive at the Parliamentary level for the first time in about a decade really.

It's partly also the Asian vote yes,but that won't be such a large factor at Parliamentary level because the seat also contains towns like Hazlemere and Marlow,which are much more white middle class and will dilute that effect somewhat. 

The East Wycombe Independents also used to take a lot of the Labour vote, but I don't think they'll be able to do that at the unitary level.

If Wycombe itself is continuing to grow, boundary changes could soon omit these Tory areas like Marlow - Brexit hard man Steve Baker could be toast at the next election

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 9, 2020 19:23:07 GMT southpaw1 said:

Sept 8, 2020 20:53:17 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Well, a lot of my friends were first time voters from Wycombe in 2019 & they were very supportive of Labour or the Greens generally (anecdotal I know),despite not being particularly involved in politics.
So, I would say it's a more of a national factor where youth turnout shot up (from what it was) and this particularly impacted Wycombe in 2019,because of the 2017 general election result,making Wycombe competive at the Parliamentary level for the first time in about a decade really.

It's partly also the Asian vote yes,but that won't be such a large factor at Parliamentary level because the seat also contains towns like Hazlemere and Marlow,which are much more white middle class and will dilute that effect somewhat. 

The East Wycombe Independents also used to take a lot of the Labour vote, but I don't think they'll be able to do that at the unitary level.

If Wycombe itself is continuing to grow, boundary changes could soon omit these Tory areas like Marlow - Brexit hard man Steve Baker could be toast at the next election

Wycombe isn't growing as fast as you'd think, but the Tories are going to lose Wycombe at the next election or the one after for the first time ever I believe. They may be making gains in the North and Midlands, but some of their traditional heartland now despises them over Brexit and a multitude of other issues.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 10, 2020 15:24:37 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Sept 9, 2020 19:23:07 GMT southpaw1 said:

If Wycombe itself is continuing to grow, boundary changes could soon omit these Tory areas like Marlow - Brexit hard man Steve Baker could be toast at the next election

Wycombe isn't growing as fast as you'd think, but the Tories are going to lose Wycombe at the next election or the one after for the first time ever I believe. They may be making gains in the North and Midlands, but some of their traditional heartland now despises them over Brexit and a multitude of other issues.

Wycombe was Labour in 1945 and 1950 when it covered a far more extensive area. It's likely on current boundaries (where, however you want to spin it, it does not include Marlow) it would have been Labour in 1997 and at other previous elections such as 1966

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 10, 2020 15:31:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 10, 2020 15:24:37 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Wycombe isn't growing as fast as you'd think, but the Tories are going to lose Wycombe at the next election or the one after for the first time ever I believe. They may be making gains in the North and Midlands, but some of their traditional heartland now despises them over Brexit and a multitude of other issues.

Wycombe was Labour in 1945 and 1950 when it covered a far more extensive area. It's likely on current boundaries (where, however you want to spin it, it does not include Marlow) it would have been Labour in 1997 and at other previous elections such as 1966

But it was Labour on far more extensive boundaries,that's the point. That seat stretched all the way towards Slough. Marlow Bottom is in the seat and it is an integral part of Marlow, with the type of wealthy suburban housing that will vote solidly in large numbers for the Tories. They are the people propping Steve Baker,not Wycombe itself.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 10, 2020 15:40:25 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Sept 10, 2020 15:31:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Wycombe was Labour in 1945 and 1950 when it covered a far more extensive area. It's likely on current boundaries (where, however you want to spin it, it does not include Marlow) it would have been Labour in 1997 and at other previous elections such as 1966

But it was Labour on far more extensive boundaries,that's the point. That seat stretched all the way towards Slough. Marlow Bottom is in the seat and it is an integral part of Marlow, with the type of wealthy suburban housing that will vote solidly in large numbers for the Tories. They are the people propping Steve Baker,not Wycombe itself.

It only included Slough before 1945. Eton & Slough became a separate seat in 1945 and Wycombe then became more or less coterminous with the current district of the same name, in other words it included, in addition to Marlow, Princes Risborough and a large rural area.
Marlow Bottom is a separate parish and not an integral part of Marlow at all. It has a population of c. 3,000 (Marlow itself has about 15,000)

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 10, 2020 15:50:59 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 10, 2020 15:40:25 GMT unrepentantfool said:

But it was Labour on far more extensive boundaries,that's the point. That seat stretched all the way towards Slough. Marlow Bottom is in the seat and it is an integral part of Marlow, with the type of wealthy suburban housing that will vote solidly in large numbers for the Tories. They are the people propping Steve Baker,not Wycombe itself.

It only included Slough before 1945. Eton & Slough became a separate seat in 1945 and Wycombe then became more or less coterminous with the current district of the same name, in other words it included, in addition to Marlow, Princes Risborough and a large rural area.
Marlow Bottom is a separate parish and not an integral part of Marlow at all. It has a population of c. 3,000 (Marlow itself has about 15,000)

Well,the demographics of the seat at that point might provide a better insight as to why it was Labour in 1945. High Wycombe itself still has some industry,but,in those days, it was virtually the centre of the world chair making industry and that would have produced a large Labour vote in itself,plus the paper and corn mills at Loudwater 2 miles down the valley were in the constituency at that point and would also presumably have contributed to those victories after the Second World War.
Indeed,Ercol still provides some jobs in Princes Risborough,which might have provided a small Labour boost if still in the constituency.
I can tell you that Marlow Bottom is an integral part of Marlow because my maternal grandfather was born and grew up in the area, it seamlessly merges into the town itself and it's inclusion instead of the core town itself is a crucial part of why this seat stays Conservative - it's solid Tory suburbia,as opposed to the town which is very Tory as most places are nearby, but does have some social housing,which would add a small vote for Labour compared to Marlow Bottom.

[Pete Whitehead]

Wouldn't it have been easier just to admit you were mistaken when you claimed

Sept 8, 2020 20:53:17 GMT unrepentantfool said:

the seat also contains towns like Hazlemere and Marlow,which are much more white middle class and will dilute that effect somewhat. 

and were corrected on it?
Surely easier to accept the correction rather than engaging in this ridiculous pretence that you meant Marlow Bottom all along.
I don't know what your definition of 'integral' is - a separate parish, separated by open countryside and which has never been part of Marlow strikes me as pretty non-integral but even if it was it hardly justifies saying that the seat 'contains Marlow'. On the same basis you might as well say that Windsor 'contains towns like Slough and Bracknell'.
Marlow Bottom casts somewhere beetween 1,500 and 2,000 votes in a general election, out of a total of nearly 55,000 in the constituency. Sure it provides a boost to the Conservatives but it's hardly decisive

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 11, 2020 19:08:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Wouldn't it have been easier just to admit you were mistaken when you claimed

Sept 8, 2020 20:53:17 GMT unrepentantfool said:

the seat also contains towns like Hazlemere and Marlow,which are much more white middle class and will dilute that effect somewhat. 

and were corrected on it?
Surely easier to accept the correction rather than engaging in this ridiculous pretence that you meant Marlow Bottom all along.
I don't know what your definition of 'integral' is - a separate parish, separated by open countryside and which has never been part of Marlow strikes me as pretty non-integral but even if it was it hardly justifies saying that the seat 'contains Marlow'. On the same basis you might as well say that Windsor 'contains towns like Slough and Bracknell'.
Marlow Bottom casts somewhere beetween 1,500 and 2,000 votes in a general election, out of a total of nearly 55,000 in the constituency. Sure it provides a boost to the Conservatives but it's hardly decisive

MB is separated by one field from Great Marlow School. It isn't exactly in the middle of nowhere like Danesfield. I was using it as an example of the white middle class towns or suburbs on the edge of Wycombe that are the main deciding factor on who wins Wycombe constituency,partly because I know it better than other areas of Wycombe.

[neilm]

By one field and several streets, you mean?

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 11, 2020 21:40:53 GMT neilm said:

By one field and several streets, you mean?

This is some level of perfectionism you're aspiring to here, Marlow Bottom is virtually part of Marlow, end of.

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 11, 2020 21:40:53 GMT neilm said:

By one field and several streets, you mean?

And,at this point, they're even closer : www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5844737,-0.779831,17z.

[alien8ted]

Thankfully we eventually got to the bottom of that.

[unrepentantfool]

Sept 12, 2020 3:43:34 GMT alien8ted said:

Thankfully we eventually got to the bottom of that.

I couldn't al-low myself to lose that argument.... 

[finsobruce]

I'm not sure which ward this is in but they've dug up "The Marlow Warlord"

www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/05/archaeologists-unearth-remains-believed-anglo-saxon-warrior

[unrepentantfool]

Oct 5, 2020 10:18:22 GMT finsobruce said:

I'm not sure which ward this is in but they've dug up "The Marlow Warlord"

www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/05/archaeologists-unearth-remains-believed-anglo-saxon-warrior

Unfortunately, this is in the wrong place, although the archaeologists have named the corpse the "Marlow Warlord", he was found across the river in Berks, most probably Hurley, which has the oldest still working pub in Britain, dating from 1135,next to the site of a Benedictine priory from 1086,so not exactly a new settlement.
There are several massive Iron Age forts in the area that I have visited many times,due to the area's national significance as borderlands between 2 (possibly opposing) kingdoms in the Iron Age. 
These forts are all on the Bucks side of the river I believe, Danesfield Camp is what Danesfield RAF station was built on (link to info is :here), Medmenham Camp is still mostly extant (link is here for that) and West Wycombe Hill Fort a few miles away overlooking the Wye valley on top of the Hellfire Caves where the Dashwood Mausoleum and St Laurence's Church is (link's here).

[finsobruce]

Oct 5, 2020 11:41:41 GMT unrepentantfool said:

Oct 5, 2020 10:18:22 GMT finsobruce said:

I'm not sure which ward this is in but they've dug up "The Marlow Warlord"

www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/05/archaeologists-unearth-remains-believed-anglo-saxon-warrior

Unfortunately, this is in the wrong place, although the archaeologists have named the corpse the "Marlow Warlord", he was found across the river in Berks, most probably Hurley, which has the oldest still working pub in Britain, dating from 1135,next to the site of a Benedictine priory from 1086,so not exactly a new settlement.
There are several massive Iron Age forts in the area that I have visited many times,due to the area's national significance as borderlands between 2 (possibly opposing) kingdoms in the Iron Age. 
These forts are all on the Bucks side of the river I believe, Danesfield Camp is what Danesfield RAF station was built on (link to info is :here), Medmenham Camp is still mostly extant (link is here for that) and West Wycombe Hill Fort a few miles away overlooking the Wye valley on top of the Hellfire Caves where the Dashwood Mausoleum and St Laurence's Church is (link's here).

So arguing about ward boundaries here has a long, long history!

[John Chanin]

The Thames here was of course also the border between Mercia and Wessex.....

[East Anglian Lefty]

Only comparatively late on, I think - Berkshire was only securely part of Wessex from the ninth century, when Mercia was on the slide.