|
|
Post by Admin Twaddleford on Jan 1, 2020 20:56:47 GMT
New council
Whole council election
Due to replace Aylesbury Vale, Chiltern, South Bucks, Wycombe and Buckinghamshire County
Current compositions of outgoing councils:
Aylesbury Vale: Con 38, LD 12, Lab 2, Grn 1, Oth 6
Chiltern: Con 37, LD 2, Oth 1
South Bucks: Con 24, Oth 4
Buckinghamshire County: Con 39, LD 4, Lab 1, Oth 5
Wycombe: Con 48, Lab 6, Wycombe Ind 4, LD 1, Ind 1
|
|
|
|
Post by BucksDucks on Jan 3, 2020 9:41:35 GMT
Missed out the Wycombe composition: Con 48, Lab 6, Wycombe Ind 4, LD 1, Ind 1 Clearly the most important election of the year  I believe the 49 new wards for the council will be the same as the old Bucks CC divisions. So the 2017 county council elections gives us a neat baseline for some notional results. Each of these wards will have 3 councillors, meaning there will be a total of 147 councillors on Buckinghamshire Council. I believe that will make Buckinghamshire Council the largest authority in the UK in terms of councillors. While I think having 100+ councillors for a county wide authority is reasonable, 147 is far too many and the cynic in me thinks that this is to do with making sure as many of the old district and county councillors as possible still have a seat come May. I guess this will probably be trimmed down in future reviews. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Jan 3, 2020 13:42:28 GMT
Given the size of Buckinghamshire 147 councillors is justified. There is no good reason for just one Buckinghamshire unitary authority (excluding Milton Keynes)-it is just too large to be effective. Northamptonshire's solution (West Northamptonshire/North Northamptonshire) was not ideal but it is better than this.
|
|
|
|
Post by BucksDucks on Jan 3, 2020 13:54:38 GMT
I agree that having two unitary authorities would have been better. I believe that is what the District councils proposed (Chiltern, South Bucks and Wycombe combining and Aylesbury Vale staying separate) but was ultimately rejected in favour of this arrangement.
|
|
|
|
Post by ricmk on Jan 3, 2020 14:03:55 GMT
Given the size of Buckinghamshire 147 councillors is justified. There is no good reason for just one Buckinghamshire unitary authority (excluding Milton Keynes)-it is just too large to be effective. Northamptonshire's solution (West Northamptonshire/North Northamptonshire) was not ideal but it is better than this. I would agree with that. There are currently many tensions over Aylesbury Vale's building plans on the edge of Milton Keynes; I'm fearful that this will be a long way down the priority list for the new Buckinghamshire County Council and that they will be a much harder partner to engage with.
I wonder why they went for such a gigantic council size? Assuming the Tories walk it, set up a cabinet, with deputies and committee chairs, there will be 50+ Tory councillors with very little to do unless they are planning having scrutiny committees with 30+ on? (I chair a scrutiny committee of 17, that is tough enough.) Hard to see the Tories fearing they'd lose control of either side, and Buckingham and Wycombe really have very little to do with each other. I think they'd have been much better putting that dividing line across the Chilterns like the districts suggested.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,230
|
Post by Merseymike on Jan 3, 2020 14:08:05 GMT
I agree that having two unitary authorities would have been better. I believe that is what the District councils proposed (Chiltern, South Bucks and Wycombe combining and Aylesbury Vale staying separate) but was ultimately rejected in favour of this arrangement. I even think that's too big. Wycombe is big enough to be a unitary on its own as is Aylesbury Vale. Chiltern and South Bucks could have combined. Having local government is pointless when it's so remote that it isn't local any more. I spent some of my early years in Marlow, which looks to Maidenhead as much as to Wycombe and I don't think I went to Aylesbury more than twice. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,230
|
Post by Merseymike on Jan 11, 2020 21:42:07 GMT
Also another option would have been 147 single member wards which would have been better in terms of maintaining a local connection.
But of course that wouldn't have helped the Tories as some smaller wards would be much more winnable by other parties.
|
|
|
|
Post by David Boothroyd on Jan 11, 2020 21:50:03 GMT
Unitary Bucks should have mostly single-member divisions because of the need to achieve genuinely local representation. The problem is that having a boundary review to set them up will take too long and be finalised too late before the election, and wards used for the current districts are all different size. Hence the need to use county council divisions (although they were last reviewed in 2010-12) and to multiply up to achieve a larger number of members.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 30,230
|
Post by Merseymike on Jan 11, 2020 22:00:54 GMT
Unitary Bucks should have mostly single-member divisions because of the need to achieve genuinely local representation. The problem is that having a boundary review to set them up will take too long and be finalised too late before the election, and wards used for the current districts are all different size. Hence the need to use county council divisions (although they were last reviewed in 2010-12) and to multiply up to achieve a larger number of members. Take your point but the county council divisions could have been very easily split into 3. There is a danger that the Tories could get every seat on half the vote |
|
|
|
Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 12, 2020 12:23:28 GMT
This council is almost as big as the Vermont House of Representatives.
|
|
|
|
Post by casualobserver on Jan 16, 2020 1:04:30 GMT
Each of these wards will have 3 councillors, meaning there will be a total of 147 councillors on Buckinghamshire Council. I believe that will make Buckinghamshire Council the largest authority in the UK in terms of councillors. I believe that you are correct, with Durham Unitary second at 126 and City of London Corporation third at 125. When Durham Unitary was formed the existing 63 County Council divisions were each made 2-member to provide the new Authority's 126 Councillors. I just wonder if Bucks should also have gone for the 2x multiplier rather than the 3x multiplier? |
|
unrepentantfool
Socialist
Politically homeless but not politically inactive :D
Posts: 902
|
Post by unrepentantfool on Jan 16, 2020 4:52:53 GMT
Each of these wards will have 3 councillors, meaning there will be a total of 147 councillors on Buckinghamshire Council. I believe that will make Buckinghamshire Council the largest authority in the UK in terms of councillors. I believe that you are correct, with Durham Unitary second at 126 and City of London Corporation third at 125. When Durham Unitary was formed the existing 63 County Council divisions were each made 2-member to provide the new Authority's 126 Councillors. I just wonder if Bucks should also have gone for the 2x multiplier rather than the 3x multiplier? Why not one councillor per ward? 49 councillors would mean an average electorate of 8,125 to represent, taken from a parliamentary electorate of 398,125- may want to add an estimate for EU citizens to make it more accurate. |
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Sept 7, 2020 12:39:46 GMT
Will be interesting to see how the Conservatives poll in places like Buckinghamshire if there's a No Deal Brexit
|
|
unrepentantfool
Socialist
Politically homeless but not politically inactive :D
Posts: 902
|
Post by unrepentantfool on Sept 8, 2020 18:58:37 GMT
Will be interesting to see how the Conservatives poll in places like Buckinghamshire if there's a No Deal Brexit They're already falling out of contention in Wycombe to some extent,Chiltern and parts of Aylesbury Vale have some former or current Lib Dem strength, so I can see the Liberals making major gains in the urban parts of the county and become the main opposition on around 30-40 percent of the vote. Labour would make decent gains in Wycombe itself and come 3rd on about 10-20 percent. The Greens would probably make sporadic gains in Aylesbury Vale and maybe one in South Bucks with about 10 percent of the vote at max. |
|
finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,168 
|
Post by finsobruce on Sept 8, 2020 19:41:00 GMT
Will be interesting to see how the Conservatives poll in places like Buckinghamshire if there's a No Deal Brexit They're already falling out of contention in Wycombe to some extent,Chiltern and parts of Aylesbury Vale have some former or current Lib Dem strength, so I can see the Liberals making major gains in the urban parts of the county and become the main opposition on around 30-40 percent of the vote. Labour would make decent gains in Wycombe itself and come 3rd on about 10-20 percent. The Greens would probably make sporadic gains in Aylesbury Vale and maybe one in South Bucks with about 10 percent of the vote at max. I like the idea of sporadic Greens. |
|
unrepentantfool
Socialist
Politically homeless but not politically inactive :D
Posts: 902
|
Post by unrepentantfool on Sept 8, 2020 19:50:34 GMT
They're already falling out of contention in Wycombe to some extent,Chiltern and parts of Aylesbury Vale have some former or current Lib Dem strength, so I can see the Liberals making major gains in the urban parts of the county and become the main opposition on around 30-40 percent of the vote. Labour would make decent gains in Wycombe itself and come 3rd on about 10-20 percent. The Greens would probably make sporadic gains in Aylesbury Vale and maybe one in South Bucks with about 10 percent of the vote at max. I like the idea of sporadic Greens. They sometimes find their way onto your plate  ! |
|
European Lefty
Labour
I am autistic, so If I'm rude or inappropriate it's probably by accident. If not, you'll know it!
Posts: 1,943
|
Post by European Lefty on Sept 8, 2020 20:01:34 GMT
I wonder if it will be an unusually good year for any incumbents who stand? With the abolition of districts in a county as disconnected as this I ca see "I've been your councillor for 4 (or 6) years, so vote for me again to stop our local voice being sidelined" being quite effective
|
|
finsobruce
Labour
Five people have watched this in the last hour.
Posts: 31,168
|
Post by finsobruce on Sept 8, 2020 20:09:33 GMT
I like the idea of sporadic Greens. They sometimes find their way onto your plate ! "Billy, eat up your sporadic greens"
"Don't want to mum, they always gain on me".
|
|
|
|
Post by southpaw1 on Sept 8, 2020 20:15:41 GMT
Labour should make big gains in Wycombe I'd imagine - their vote held up well in 2019 against the trend - perhaps an Asian candidate helped or maybe demographic change...
|
|
unrepentantfool
Socialist
Politically homeless but not politically inactive :D
Posts: 902
|
Post by unrepentantfool on Sept 8, 2020 20:53:17 GMT
Labour should make big gains in Wycombe I'd imagine - their vote held up well in 2019 against the trend - perhaps an Asian candidate helped or maybe demographic change... Well, a lot of my friends were first time voters from Wycombe in 2019 & they were very supportive of Labour or the Greens generally (anecdotal I know),despite not being particularly involved in politics. So, I would say it's a more of a national factor where youth turnout shot up (from what it was) and this particularly impacted Wycombe in 2019,because of the 2017 general election result,making Wycombe competive at the Parliamentary level for the first time in about a decade really. It's partly also the Asian vote yes,but that won't be such a large factor at Parliamentary level because the seat also contains towns like Hazlemere and Marlow,which are much more white middle class and will dilute that effect somewhat. The East Wycombe Independents also used to take a lot of the Labour vote, but I don't think they'll be able to do that at the unitary level. |
|
!