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Sheffield
Jan 20, 2020 22:31:00 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 20, 2020 22:31:00 GMT
There is no chance the Lib Dems will win Stocksbridge and Upper Don. It will either be a Labour or Tory gain Why? |
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Deleted
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Sheffield
Jan 21, 2020 7:09:17 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2020 7:09:17 GMT
There is no chance the Lib Dems will win Stocksbridge and Upper Don. It will either be a Labour or Tory gain Why? the Lib Dems are almost dead last in Stocksbridge and Upper Don. If anti Labour voters who backed tories in December are going to back anyone why would it be the party in 5th place |
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Sheffield
Jan 21, 2020 7:47:05 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 21, 2020 7:47:05 GMT
the Lib Dems are almost dead last in Stocksbridge and Upper Don. If anti Labour voters who backed tories in December are going to back anyone why would it be the party in 5th place Because they've won it before and only a low vote share is needed to win it. |
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Deleted
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Sheffield
Jan 21, 2020 8:53:50 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2020 8:53:50 GMT
the Lib Dems are almost dead last in Stocksbridge and Upper Don. If anti Labour voters who backed tories in December are going to back anyone why would it be the party in 5th place Because they've won it before and only a low vote share is needed to win it. given theyve done well in Ecclesfield and Penistone but not Stocksbridge does that not tell you that there's not as much traction. There's quite few places that had lib dem councillors bur they've no chance in; Burngreave, Hillsborough, Nether Edge, Broomhill, etc. They even had a seat in the old Owlerton ward that makes up half of Southey |
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Sheffield
Jan 21, 2020 9:04:18 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 21, 2020 9:04:18 GMT
Because they've won it before and only a low vote share is needed to win it. given theyve done well in Ecclesfield and Penistone but not Stocksbridge does that not tell you that there's not as much traction. There's quite few places that had lib dem councillors bur they've no chance in; Burngreave, Hillsborough, Nether Edge, Broomhill, etc. They even had a seat in the old Owlerton ward that makes up half of Southey No because the Tories underperform locally in Stocksbridge & Upper Don. It's one of those places where Conservatives vote Lib Dem, UKIP or even Independent locally. |
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Post by David Ashforth on Jan 21, 2020 10:26:38 GMT
Because they've won it before and only a low vote share is needed to win it. given theyve done well in Ecclesfield and Penistone but not Stocksbridge does that not tell you that there's not as much traction. There's quite few places that had lib dem councillors bur they've no chance in; Burngreave, Hillsborough, Nether Edge, Broomhill, etc. They even had a seat in the old Owlerton ward that makes up half of Southey The Liberal Democrats even had two councillors in Park ward. The first won in a by-election in 1999. |
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Sheffield
Jan 21, 2020 10:29:46 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 21, 2020 10:29:46 GMT
The Tories *should* have a shot at winning Stocksbridge & Upper Don but they don't have the ground game.
The Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP have all benefitted from antipathy to Labour in Sheffield. The Tories haven't.
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Post by jacoblamsden on Jan 21, 2020 10:56:29 GMT
The Tories *should* have a shot at winning Stocksbridge & Upper Don but they don't have the ground game. The Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP have all benefitted from antipathy to Labour in Sheffield. The Tories haven't. But they now hold the parliamentary seat with a sizable majority so it seems somewhat illogical that a Conservative-inclined voter in Stocksbridge would think 'Hmmm...I'd better vote Lib Dem even though I disagree with them on almost everything because there are no more credible anti-Labour options'. I think you forget that for many leave voters, the Lib Dems are much more divisive than they were and therefore will benefit less from this kind of local tactical voting than they used to. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2020 11:06:40 GMT
No one has a huge amount of ground game in Stocksbridge. It's not an easy place to get to. The anti Labour vote will move behind anyone who are the challengers. In my opinion in Stocksbridge that will be the Tories. You are welcome to visit any time and we'll go door knocking in Stocksbridge
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2020 11:18:49 GMT
Cates is a parish councillor in the ward so there's room to expand
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Sheffield
Jan 21, 2020 12:14:13 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 21, 2020 12:14:13 GMT
The Tories *should* have a shot at winning Stocksbridge & Upper Don but they don't have the ground game. The Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP have all benefitted from antipathy to Labour in Sheffield. The Tories haven't. But they now hold the parliamentary seat with a sizable majority so it seems somewhat illogical that a Conservative-inclined voter in Stocksbridge would think 'Hmmm...I'd better vote Lib Dem even though I disagree with them on almost everything because there are no more credible anti-Labour options'. I think you forget that for many leave voters, the Lib Dems are much more divisive than they were and therefore will benefit less from this kind of local tactical voting than they used to. Stocksbridge & Upper Don't count on it. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 21, 2020 12:27:52 GMT
Because they've won it before and only a low vote share is needed to win it. given theyve done well in Ecclesfield and Penistone but not Stocksbridge does that not tell you that there's not as much traction. No, it tells you it’s not been targeted. |
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Sheffield
Jan 21, 2020 13:23:17 GMT
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Post by conservativeestimate on Jan 21, 2020 13:23:17 GMT
given theyve done well in Ecclesfield and Penistone but not Stocksbridge does that not tell you that there's not as much traction. No, it tells you it’s not been targeted. Depends if the Brexit Party run. |
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Deleted
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Sheffield
Jan 25, 2020 19:19:34 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2020 19:19:34 GMT
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Post by David Ashforth on Feb 5, 2020 18:21:05 GMT
Cllr Michelle Cook (Labour, Broomhill & Sharrow Vale) has resigned. She was up for re-election in May.
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Sheffield
Feb 6, 2020 18:41:34 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 6, 2020 18:41:34 GMT
The Tories *should* have a shot at winning Stocksbridge & Upper Don but they don't have the ground game. The Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP have all benefitted from antipathy to Labour in Sheffield. The Tories haven't. But they now hold the parliamentary seat with a sizable majority so it seems somewhat illogical that a Conservative-inclined voter in Stocksbridge would think 'Hmmm...I'd better vote Lib Dem even though I disagree with them on almost everything because there are no more credible anti-Labour options'. I think you forget that for many leave voters, the Lib Dems are much more divisive than they were and therefore will benefit less from this kind of local tactical voting than they used to. The thing is that these voters DON'T disagree with the Lib Dems on local politics. The 2019 local election was one where the Lib Dem policy on Brexit was well known and thoroughly rejected by Leave voters. I did meet a handful of voters campaigning in Kirklees who were voting Tory not Lib Dem on that basis. But overall the swing in many Leave voting areas was Tory to Lib Dem. As Iain says, the difference between Stocksbridge and neighbouring wards is targeting. Lib Dems in Sheffield have a lot more credibility at local level than Tories, and if they targeted Stocksbridge with a credible local candidate they would win it again, possibly needing two heaves. I doubt that will happen in 2020 though, with lots of split wards to fight. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 6, 2020 21:06:08 GMT
But they now hold the parliamentary seat with a sizable majority so it seems somewhat illogical that a Conservative-inclined voter in Stocksbridge would think 'Hmmm...I'd better vote Lib Dem even though I disagree with them on almost everything because there are no more credible anti-Labour options'. I think you forget that for many leave voters, the Lib Dems are much more divisive than they were and therefore will benefit less from this kind of local tactical voting than they used to. The thing is that these voters DON'T disagree with the Lib Dems on local politics. The 2019 local election was one where the Lib Dem policy on Brexit was well known and thoroughly rejected by Leave voters. I did meet a handful of voters campaigning in Kirklees who were voting Tory not Lib Dem on that basis. But overall the swing in many Leave voting areas was Tory to Lib Dem. As Iain says, the difference between Stocksbridge and neighbouring wards is targeting. Lib Dems in Sheffield have a lot more credibility at local level than Tories, and if they targeted Stocksbridge with a credible local candidate they would win it again, possibly needing two heaves. I doubt that will happen in 2020 though, with lots of split wards to fight. You are trusted by some on pothole matters, but not on things more than 10-inches off the ground. |
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Sheffield
Feb 6, 2020 23:01:54 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 6, 2020 23:01:54 GMT
The thing is that these voters DON'T disagree with the Lib Dems on local politics. The 2019 local election was one where the Lib Dem policy on Brexit was well known and thoroughly rejected by Leave voters. I did meet a handful of voters campaigning in Kirklees who were voting Tory not Lib Dem on that basis. But overall the swing in many Leave voting areas was Tory to Lib Dem. As Iain says, the difference between Stocksbridge and neighbouring wards is targeting. Lib Dems in Sheffield have a lot more credibility at local level than Tories, and if they targeted Stocksbridge with a credible local candidate they would win it again, possibly needing two heaves. I doubt that will happen in 2020 though, with lots of split wards to fight. You are trusted by some on pothole matters, but not on things more than 10-inches off the ground. Yes, and sometimes we can get more than 43% to support us |
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alien8ted
Independent
I refuse to be governed by fear.
Posts: 3,715
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Post by alien8ted on Feb 7, 2020 8:10:58 GMT
Sheffield voting has evolved to the stage where general election votes and local council votes are entirely separate for a very large percentage of voters, including me.
It will be interesting to see how Northern Sheffield votes this time but I don't expect the Conservative vote to be as high as in the general election. Sheffield Hallam area will revert to more to its greater localist Liberal Democrat / Green voting with Labour losing out. Sheffield Central will revert to more to its greater localist Green voting with Labour losing out. Outskirts of South Eastern Sheffield will revert to more to its greater localist Liberal Democrat voting with Labour losing out.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 7, 2020 8:19:34 GMT
You are trusted by some on pothole matters, but not on things more than 10-inches off the ground. Yes, and sometimes we can get more than 43% to support us HA HA HA HA HA HA Tell us all about then. |
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