Bury

[Admin Twaddleford]

Lab majority
Elects by thirds
Current composition: Lab 28, Con 16, LD 4, Oth 3

[bsjmcr]

A bit of late night procrastination has led me to push the boat out with a possible Lab loss following the GE results in Bury... I predict a proliferation of Indepdendents/Radcliffe First should take over all of Radcliffe (or Tories in Radcliffe North), given the momentum behind them already and the close calls they have given Labour in the seats they didn't win, and that much of the Tory swing at the GE must have come from leave-leaning Radcliffe. In retrospect credit must go to Lucy Burke for only losing by 402 as a brand new candidate when incumbents in some cases (e.g. Leigh) lost by even bigger majorities and had larger majorities going into the election. She was Prestwich-based - could she have done rather well there?

As for my home ward of St Mary's, it was a Liberal landslide last year, but we haven't heard much from them since they won though we got an avalanche of leaflets in the year leading up to the election - no idea who their candidate is so far this time! It has great potential if they tried as the last time Labour won it was extremely marginal. At the GE across Bury South LDs lost their deposit but people have the sense to tactically vote. As there is no Prestwich First (which would do rather well I think if it existed), the LDs in St Mary's are still the ones to absorb any disaffected votes with the incumbent council - Longfield Centre in particular getting a lot of talk but no action from all.

Sedgley should have potential for the Conservatives (or their Conservative should hold if he's up for election) though by May, Corbyn will be long gone so AS may not be on the forefront as it was at the GE. Besides, Labour still managed to win last year so here, people really do vote based on local issues and local people.

Less well-versed on Bury North - it was a 'just about' gain for James Daly who now has the most marginal seat in England - will he stand down as Councillor? And could the marginality of the BN result, i.e. comparatively small swing vs other Northern Lab losses (and so many people devastated to see Frith lose) mean that the rest of Bury North outside of Bury town proper of course isn't necessarily in the bag for the Tories, e.g. Ramsbottom? However Labour still lost, Tories gained, and Bury is no Putney so they ought to pick up all the seats they once held.

[andrewteale]

26 seats is a majority on Bury council, so if Labour lose all three Radcliffe wards they'll need to make a nett gain elsewhere to keep overall control.

In 2016 the Conservatives won Ramsbottom and Sedgley wards, which voted Labour in 2018 and 2019 - in the case of Sedgley very comfortably so. (Fun fact: in 2016 Sedgley was the only ward wholly within the M60 to vote Conservative.) If the Tories hold Sedgley they'll be doing well.

The only split ward outside Radcliffe which Labour are defending is St Mary's, but they are also defending marginal wards in Elton (where they gained the last Conservative seat in 2019) and Unsworth (which last voted Conservative in 2008 but has turned marginal in the last two years). The Conservatives have previously won Moorside and Redvales wards in Bury town but they look out of reach now barring landslide conditions.

James Daly is due for re-election in North Manor in 2022. His council seat is in no danger whether there's a by-election or not.

[martinwhelton]

Bury will have all-out elections in 2022 due to rewarding as will nearly all the Met boroughs that still have their 2004 boundaries

[bjornhattan]

Jan 4, 2020 11:46:01 GMT martinwhelton said:

Bury will have all-out elections in 2022 due to rewarding as will nearly all the Met boroughs that still have their 2004 boundaries

Will the Met boroughs keep electing by thirds, or has that not been decided yet?

[andrewteale]

Jan 4, 2020 11:46:01 GMT martinwhelton said:

Bury will have all-out elections in 2022 due to rewarding as will nearly all the Met boroughs that still have their 2004 boundaries

That's the first I've heard of this. I'd heard Trafford was intended to be reviewed for 2022, but Trafford has the most outsized ward in Greater Manchester (excluding Manchester and Salford, where new boundaries are imminent or still bedding in).

On the December 2018 electorates for Bury there were two out of 17 wards outside the 10% tolerance, with Pilkington Park and Unsworth wards being undersized. Unsworth has the largest variance at 13% below quota.

[martinwhelton]

Any Met borough can opt to have all-out elections as it’s no longer a legal requirement and has seen Birmingham and Doncaster move to all-outs. It still I believe requires a 2/3rds majority of a council to change the cycle though Birmingham was changed through ministerial intervention.

[David Boothroyd]

Rotherham also has all-out elections. Confusingly the three Met Boroughs on all-out cycles are all in different years: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/792138/Election_Timetable_in_England_2019.pdf

[martinwhelton]

Jan 4, 2020 12:37:13 GMT David Boothroyd said:

Rotherham also has all-out elections. Confusingly the three Met Boroughs on all-out cycles are all in different years: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/792138/Election_Timetable_in_England_2019.pdf

I wasn’t quite sure about Rotherham but thanks for confirming

[forensic]

Current composition: Lab 28, Con 16, LD 4, Oth 3

Seats being defended in 2020 (last fought 2016)
Labour 9, Con 6, LD 1, Ind 1 (elected as Labour)

A repeat of the 2019 elections (Lab 8, Con 6, LD 2, Radcliffe First 1), would result in a Council composition of:
Labour 27, Con 16, LD 5, Other 3

A repeat of the 2019 elections AND the 2019 Radcliffe West by-election (Labour 7, Con 6, LD 2, Radcliffe First 2) would result in a Council composition of:
Labour 26, Con 16, LD 5, Other 4

So...... a Labour majority of 1........

However lots of marginal wins for Labour in 2019
Elton - Labour majority of 16
Unsworth - Labour majority of 76 (the Council Leader is up in 2020).

[bsjmcr]

A bit early to say but could the Starmer win help Labour to hang on to Sedgley and St Mary's next year?

[bsjmcr]

Apr 12, 2020 15:27:43 GMT bsjmcr said:

A bit early to say but could the Starmer win help Labour to hang on to Sedgley and St Mary's next year?

Eamonn O'Brian of St Mary's is now Council Leader, and in a marginal seat! His majority was 57 in 2018, though I would assume he wouldn't be up for election until 2022? It is Jane Black next year, whose majority was 19 in 2016. I'd say had a pretty good run whatever happens, having been Mayor and other senior positions.

In any case, unless the LD candidate can do such a concerted and persistent local campaign like Powell did last year, I find it hard to see the party, now leaderless and rudderless, making any of gains.